Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

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Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the freight transport industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Freight Transport Risk Reward Index, Macroeconomic Forecast, Company Profiles and Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Bulgaria Freight Transport Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

All three freight sectors will continue to see positive growth over the medium to long term in Bulgaria, with the road sector faring particularly well out of the three, reaching 5.5% growth by 2020. EU funding will help to ensure the development of the country's infrastructure whilst the government's efforts to modernise the rail network should add strength to its transport offering. Bulgaria will be well-placed to capitalise on the growth in trade that looks set to take off by 2017 and continue to rise at least until 2020.

Bulgaria has demonstrated its strength through the European economic crisis and growth in GDP looks set to improve with recovery promising to be widespread. Supported by EU structural and investment funds between now and 2020, the country is working towards implementing its national reforms, with the freight sector likely to benefit from the expansion and improvement of the country's current transport infrastructure.

Low oil prices and the weak Euro have helped Bulgaria's economic growth and encouraged investment in the country. The growth in the country exports and imports should pick up going forward, though total trade growth will only move into positive growth in 2017. However, the country's vulnerability to geopolitical instability as well as a general economic slowdown amongst its key trade partners may pose a threat to trade and in turn the freight sector in the medium to long term.

Freight transport in Bulgaria will continue to take place primarily on the roads with rail and air playing a much smaller part. The situation will become more marked by 2020, with low oil prices and investment in road infrastructure continuing to place the sector in the best position for efficiency. Despite plans for an overhaul of the country's rail network, rail freight tonnage will increase only slowly over the short to medium term, rising from 3.5% growth to 4.6% growth by 2020. This cannot be said for air freight which looks set to reduce its growth from 4.5% in 2016 to 3.1% in 2020.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2016 air freight tonnage forecast to grow by 4.50% to reach 25,310 tonnes.

  • 2016 rail freight tonnage forecast to increase by 3.50% to hit 14.6mn tonnes.

  • 2016 road freight tonnage forecast to rise by 5.40% to reach 173.12mn tonnes

  • 2016 total trade (real terms) forecast to rise 2.50%.

Recent Developments

Baltic-Adriatic R ail C orridor To Improve Linkage

Launch of Baltic-Adriatic rail freight corridor which will link the main ports in the Baltic and Adriatic Seas and provide a rail link to countries including Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria and Turkey.

Logistics C ompanies A dd Bulgaria T o T heir O ffering

Palletways announced further expansion of its existing European services by adding Romania and Bulgaria to its list of countries. The company is the leading palletised freight network in Europe.

UPS has also added Bulgaria along with Romania and Serbia to its list of origin countries as part of the expansion of its Worldwide Express Freight service.

Rail N etwork P lan

A draft strategy for a 2015-2022 plan to develop the country's rail network has been unveiled by the government, with plans for the restructuring of state-owned BDZ. The plan will include investment in rolling stock, modernisation of network's IT systems and development of the EU transport corridors. The company's debt will also be tackled through fund raising and possible privatisation of the freight division.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Trade Forecast
15
Table: Trade Overview (Bulgaria 2013-2020)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Bulgaria 2013-2020)
17
Road Freight Forecast
18
Table: Road Freight (Bulgaria 2013-2020)
20
Rail Freight Forecast
20
Table: Rail Freight (Bulgaria 2013-2020)
22
Air Freight Forecast
22
Table: Air Freight (Bulgaria 2013-2020)
23
Market Overview
24
Company Profile
26
BDZ Cargo
26
DB Schenker Bulgaria
28
Navibulgar
31
Political Outlook
33
Domestic Politics
33
Long-Term Political Outlook
36
Table: Bulgaria Politics Table
40
Oil Price Outlook
41
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
41
Macroeconomic Forecasts
42
Economic Analysis
42
Table: Real GDP Growth %
45
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
48
Demographic Forecast
49
Demographic Outlook
49
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
50
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
50
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
51
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
51
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
52
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
57

The Bulgaria Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Bulgaria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.