Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

Published 15 December 2014

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Bulgaria Freight Transport Report

Bulgaria registered a 3.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) rise in the transportation of freight goods in Q1 2014, according to preliminary seasonally adjusted data released by the National Statistical Institute. Goods transported by land and water climbed 19.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the same period, according to the preliminary non-adjusted data, reported by Focus.

Although 2015 will see a slightly slower growth rate across the freight modes in Bulgaria compared to 12 months previous, we still anticipate moderate growth to be the norm this year. Leading the way is set to be the road freight sector (7.30% y-o-y growth), while air freight is also pencilled in to register healthy y-o-y gains of 5.00%.

That said, the large contractions in growth that peppered the latter years of the '00s and the early '10s look to be a thing of the past, which is welcome news going into the midterm.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 tonnage throughput at the Port of Varna is forecast to grow by 3.76% to 17.09mn tonnes.

  • 2015 air freight tonnage forecast to grow by 5.00% to reach 21,660 tonnes.

  • 2015 rail freight tonnage forecast to increase by 3.00% to hit 14.59mn tonnes.

  • 2015 road freight tonnage forecast to rise by 7.30% to reach 185.73mn tonnes

  • 2015 total trade (real terms) forecast to rise 2.52%.

Key Industry Trends

Trains To Begin Running Over Danube Bridge 2: Passenger and freight trains are expected to begin running over the Danube Bridge 2, from February or March 2014, according to Kristian Krastev, CEO of the Bulgarian state-owned railways company BDZ Holding. The project, which is part of the Pan-European transport corridor IV and will link Vidin in Bulgaria and Calafat in Romania, represents an investment of EUR282mn (USD386.7mn). The EU has contributed EUR106mn (USD145.3mn), while the remaining amount was paid by national financing and private investments.

Burgas And Vargas To Be Used In Pipeline Project: The Bulgarian ports of Burgas and Varna are to be used as...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Road Freight, 2012-19
14
Table: Rail Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2012-19
16
Table: Air Freight, 2012-19
16
Table: Maritime Freight, 2012-19
17
Table: Trade Overview, 2012-19
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2012-19
18
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2005-2012, USDmn
19
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2005-2012, USDmn
20
Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Company Profile
33
BDZ Cargo
33
DB Schenker Bulgaria
35
Navibulgar
38
Political Outlook
40
Domestic Politics
40
Long-Term Political Outlook
44
Table: Bulgaria Politics Table
48
Macroeconomic Forecasts
50
Table: Bulgaria Macroeconomic Forecasts
51
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
56
Demographic Forecast
57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
61
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Sources
64

The Bulgaria Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Bulgaria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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