Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Improvements in the refining sector are boosting the downstream outlook, though 2016 will be tougher with margins expected to drop. The restart of exploration in the Black Sea is positive for Bulgaria's oil and gas sector, which has suffered from heavy production declines in 2015.

Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 124.5 104.3 123.0 117.9 118.5 119.1 119.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 94.2 72.5 72.6 73.0 72.6 73.3 74.0
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:

  • Total will drill in the Black Sea Khan-Asparuh block between February and May 2016.

  • Shell is due to expected to sign a contract to explore the Silistar Block after it was retendered along with the Teres block that received no bids.

  • We have downgraded our gas production forecast for 2015 to 150mcm, due to strong decline rates at existing fields.

  • Petroceltic is planning to tieback the Kavarna East field to the Galata platform, which could boost production from late 2016.

  • Refined fuels production is due to increase almost 18% in 2015 over 2014.

  • Gasoline production has been particularly strong following the completion of Lukoil's new heavy residue complex.

  • Despite this, a weak economy has limited refined fuels demand, which will barely grow in 2015.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
12
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
12
Upstream Production - Gas
14
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
14
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
14
Refining
16
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
16
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
17
Refined Fuels Consumption
19
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
19
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
19
Gas Consumption
21
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
21
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
21
Trade - Oil
23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
23
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
25
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
27
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
31
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
31
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
32
Upstream: All Pipes Point To China
32
Regional Minnows Holding Up
34
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
35
Downstream: Turkish STAR Brightens Weak Market
35
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
36
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Index
38
Market Overview
40
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
40
Overview/State Role
41
Government Policy
42
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Bulgaria
43
Service Stations
44
Oil Storage Facilities
44
Oil Terminals/Ports
44
LNG Terminals
44
Gas Storage Facilities
45
Gas Pipelines
45
Competitive Landscape
47
Competitive Landscape Summary
47
Table: Key Players In The Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
48
Table: Key Upstream Players
48
Table: Key Downstream Players
49
Company Profile
50
EKO Bulgaria
50
Lukoil Neftekhim
53
Oil And Gas Exploration And Production
56
OMV Bulgaria
59
Petroceltic
62
Petrol
66
Shell Bulgaria
69
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
74
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
74
Oil Production: Caspian Driving Growth
74
Oil Consumption: Demand Tempered Due To Russian Weakness
75
Refining Capacity: Few Opportunities In Weak Market
76
Natural Gas Production: Caspian Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
77
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
78
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
79
Global Industry Overview
81
Global Energy Market Overview
81
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
85
Appendix
87
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
87
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
87
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
88
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
97
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
98
Bulgaria - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
99
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
99
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
100
Bulgaria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bulgaria 2013-2018)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Bulgaria 2019-2024)
107
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
114
Table: Weighting
115

The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bulgaria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.