Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Improvements in the refining sector have boosted refined fuels production, though 2016 is proving to be tougher with margins expected to drop. The restart of exploration in the Black Sea is positive for Bulgaria's oil and gas sector, which has suffered from heavy production declines in 2015.

Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 110.8 129.7 124.7 125.3 125.9 126.6 127.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 72.5 75.8 76.2 75.8 76.4 77.2 78.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments in Bulgaria ' s oil and gas sector are:

  • Total has started drilling in the Black Sea Khan-Asparuh block in mid-2016. Results are expected by the autumn of 2016.

  • A third well (Kaliakra-3) is being planned at the Kaliakra field to maintain output, given heavy declines from Kaliakra-1.

  • Gasoline and diesel production increased over 20% in 2015 following the completion of Lukoil's new heavy residue complex.

  • Gasoline and diesel consumption increased around 3-4% over 2015, supported by low prices.

  • A much-delayed 25km reverse flow interconnector gas pipeline between Romania and Bulgaria will come online this year. The pipeline will have maximum capacity of 1.5bcm per year in the Bulgaria-Romania direction, and 0.5bcm capacity in the reverse direction.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Upstream Production - Oil
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
12
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
12
Upstream Production - Gas
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
15
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
15
Refining
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
21
Gas Consumption
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
22
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
23
Trade - Oil
23
Latest Updates
23
Crude Oil
23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
25
Refined Fuels
25
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
27
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
29
Industry Risk Reward Index
30
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
30
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
30
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
31
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
31
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
33
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
34
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
36
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Index
38
Market Overview
40
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
40
Regulatory Structure
40
Fiscal Regime
40
Table: Bulgaria Petroleum Taxes
41
Licensing Rounds
41
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
42
Oil Refineries
42
Table: Refineries In Bulgaria
42
Service Stations
42
Table: Major Fuel Retailers In Bulgaria
42
Oil Storage Facilities
43
Oil Terminals/Ports
43
Gas Storage Facilities
43
Gas Pipelines
43
Competitive Landscape
46
Competitive Landscape Summary
46
Table: Key Players In The Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
47
Table: Key Upstream Players
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
47
Company Profile
48
Lukoil Neftekhim
48
Company Overview
48
Latest Company Updates
48
Table: Key Financial Data (USD)
49
Shell Bulgaria
50
Company Overview
50
Latest Company Updates
50
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Bulgaria
51
Key Financial Data (USD)
51
Total
52
Company Overview
52
Latest Company Updates
52
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Bulgaria
52
Table: Key Financial Data (USD)
53
Regional Overview
54
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
54
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
54
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
55
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
56
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
57
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
58
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
59
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
60
Glossary
62
Table: Glossary Of Terms
62
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Source
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
68
Table: Weighting
69

The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bulgaria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.