|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||1.4||1.4||1.3||1.3||1.3||1.3||1.2|
|Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d||120.5||121.1||142.9||164.3||165.1||166.0||166.8|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||94.2||94.7||95.0||94.9||94.5||95.3||96.3|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.1||0.2||0.3||0.4||0.5||0.5||0.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||3.0||3.0||3.1||3.1||3.2||3.3||3.3|
BMI View: The Bulgarian business environment remains challenging , suffering from high levels of corruption and inefficiency . Lower oil prices are reducing the incentive to invest in domestic production as import costs fall. While progress has been made on improving the single refinery, deflation and a poor demographic outlook is restraining the long-term demand potential.
The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:
Total, the lead company on the Khan Asparuh block has delayed its drilling programme by a year to H216. The project has been pushed to the margins of Total's portfolio given the unproven resource and high cost.
The Bulgarian government is retendering the Silistar and Teres Blocks in the Black Sea. The Blocks received no bids in a 2012 auction, though Shell, ExxonMobil, Statoil and Anadarko are reportedly interested.
Gazprom officially cancelled the South Stream project to Bulgaria meaning it will lose out on transit fees and a more secure gas supply route.
The cancellation of South Stream has put more impetus behind improving gas interconnectors. A feasibility study for the interconnector Turkey-Bulgaria (ITB) was launched on May 8, while the interconector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) is targeting completion for 2018.
Petroceltic is planning to bring the offshore East Kavarna field on stream in 2015, further adding to gas production growth. We anticipate production to reach 800mn cubic metres (Mcm) by 2017.
TransAtlantic Petroleum is expecting gas sales from its Koynare concession from 2015, after completing pressure testing in 2014. The company has applied to treat the well with acid stimulation.
Despite the closure of Chevron's corporate office in Sofia in mid-2014, the mining industry is ramping up pressure to lift the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing.
We have lowered our refined fuels consumption outlook over the ten year forecast. Despite lower fuels prices, continued deflation, a weak macro-economic outlook and negative demographics, point to long-term flat demand for liquid fuels consumption.
A new vacuum distillation unit with a capacity of 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) is nearing completion at the Neftochim refinery. According to Lukoil, the project was 98.5% complete at the end of Q115.