Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Improvements in the refining sector have boosted refined fuels production , though 2016 will be tougher with margins expected to drop. The restart of exploration in the Black Sea is positive for Bulgaria's oil and gas sector, which has suffered from heavy production declines in 2015.

Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 110.8 129.9 124.8 125.4 126.0 126.7 127.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 72.5 74.8 75.1 74.8 75.4 76.1 76.9
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:

  • Total will start drilling in the Black Sea Khan-Asparuh block between February and May 2016.

  • Petroceltic is due to complete the tieback of the Kavarna East field to the Galata platform in H116 supporting new gas output.

  • A third well (Kaliakra-3) is being planned at the Kaliakra field to maintain output, given heavy declines from Kaliakra-1.

  • Gas production in Bulgaria dropped to an estimated 82mn cubic metres in 2015, down from 181mn in 2014.

  • Gasoline and diesel production increased over 20% in 2015 following the completion of Lukoil's new heavy residue complex.

  • Gasoline and diesel consumption increased around 3-4% over 2015, supported by low prices.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Production - Oil
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
13
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
16
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
16
Refining
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
22
Gas Consumption
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
24
Trade - Oil
24
Latest Updates
24
Crude Oil
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
26
Refined Fuels
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
28
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019)
30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025)
30
Industry Risk Reward Index
31
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
31
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe
31
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
32
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
33
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
35
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
38
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Index
40
Market Overview
42
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
42
Regulatory Structure
42
Fiscal Regime
42
Table: Bulgaria Petroleum Taxes
43
Licensing Rounds
43
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
44
Oil Refineries
44
Table: Refineries In Bulgaria
44
Service Stations
44
Table: Major Fuel Retailers In Bulgaria
44
Oil Storage Facilities
45
Oil Terminals/Ports
45
Gas Storage Facilities
45
Gas Pipelines
45
Competitive Landscape
48
Competitive Landscape Summary
48
Table: Key Players In The Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
49
Table: Key Upstream Players
49
Table: Key Downstream Players
49
Company Profile
50
EKO Bulgaria
50
Lukoil Neftekhim
53
OGEP
56
OMV Bulgaria
59
Petroceltic
62
Petrol
66
Shell Bulgaria
69
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
74
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
74
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
74
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
75
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
76
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
77
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
78
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
79
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
80
Glossary
82
Table: Glossary Of Terms
82
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Source
86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
86
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
88
Table: Weighting
89

The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Bulgaria including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.