Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Pharmaceutical companies in Bulgaria will face increased pricing pressures from the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) as it unveils more cost-containment measures to rein in pharmaceutical expenditure. The NHIF will increasingly leverage its purchasing power to negotiate with drugmakers, and this dynamic will moderate the growth outlook for the country's pharmaceutical sector.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.53bn (USD1.72bn) in 2014 to BGN2.71bn (USD1.52bn) in 2015; -7.0% in local currency terms and -11.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged compared to the previous quarter .

  • Healthcare: BGN6.10bn (USD4.14bn) in 2014 to BGN6.32bn (USD3.55bn) in 2015; -3.6% in local currency terms and -14.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards compared to the previous quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.592 1.718 1.521 1.578 1.727 1.917 2.120
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.92 3.08 3.25 3.38 3.50 3.60 3.69
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 39.3 41.5 42.9 43.9 44.7 45.1 45.2
Health spending, USDbn 4.045 4.136 3.547 3.591 3.863 4.250 4.688

Risk/Reward Ratings: In Q1 2016, Bulgaria's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score stands at 55.0 and above the regional average of 49.6, which implies fifth position among twenty countries BMI monitors in this region. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook.

Latest Updates

  • A total of 206 clinical trials were conducted in Bulgaria in 2014, reports PMR. Most trials are related to psychiatry, oncology, rheumatology, gastroenterology, cardiology and endocrinology. Bulgaria is framing a national strategy for clinical trials, which will outline the future vision for the development of clinical trials.

  • A total of 10 hospitals in Bulgaria have been found to be re-selling reimbursed oncology drugs abroad, reports PMR, citing National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF)'s Deputy Chair Dimitar Petrov. Petrov did not disclose the names of the hospitals in question, but the NHIF has announced plans, in light of the development, to place identifying stickers on drug packages to prevent the further misuse of expensive drugs.

  • Bulgaria's National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) is looking to raise the reimbursement levels for outpatient drugs and cancer treatment in 2016. The new rules will force marketing authorisation holders (MAHs) to offer discounts to the NHIF in case their products are reimbursed. It will also allow an increase in the NHIF's annual spending on outpatient drugs. Additionally, the NHIF has proposed that MAHs should take responsibility for 80% of the budget overspending, with NHIF assuming responsibility for the remaining 20%.

BMI Economic

While Bulgaria will continue benefitting from the continued cyclical upswing in the eurozone, real GDP growth will stay modest over the next few years. Private consumption will continue to be the main driver of growth, while contributions from capital investment and government consumption will remain negligible in the years ahead.

BMI Political View

Rising political fragmentation and parliamentary deadlock will continue to halt Bulgaria's reform process. Due to the slow progress, the European Commission will continue its supervision programme of Bulgaria and disburse only part of the total allocated European Union Structural and Development Funds in the years ahead, hampering the country's growth prospects.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
26
Bulgaria
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
38
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
44
Rewards
44
Risks
45
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
50
Healthcare Sector
50
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Bulgaria 2009-2014)
52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Bulgaria 2009-2014)
53
Healthcare Insurance
53
Healthcare Reform Through To 2020
54
Reforming The Health Insurance Model
55
Healthcare Financing
56
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014
56
Table: Bulgarian National Health Insurance Fund Revenues (BGN 000s), 2015
57
Research & Development
57
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2014
58
Clinical Trials
59
Regulatory Development
60
Pharmaceutical Advertising
61
Intellectual Property Environment
62
Pricing Regime
63
Recent Pricing Developments
65
Drug Policy Amendments
65
Reimbursement Regime
66
Reimbursement Regime Developments
68
Competitive Landscape
69
Research-Based Industry
69
Generic Drugmakers
69
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
70
Wholesale Sector
71
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012
72
Company Profile
73
Actavis Bulgaria
73
Biovet
76
GlaxoSmithKline
78
Merck & Co
80
Novartis
82
Pfizer
84
Sanofi
86
Sopharma
88
Demographic Forecast
92
Demographic Outlook
92
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
93
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
93
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
94
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
94
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
95
Glossary
97
Methodology
99
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
99
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
99
Notes On Methodology
100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
101
Index Overview
102
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
102
Indicator Weightings
103

The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.