Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The long-term outlook for Bulgaria's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets is generally positive. The much-needed reforms to Bulgaria's healthcare system are facing continued opposition; however their implementation is set to improve patient access to treatment for serious diseases such as cancer and improve the efficacy of government funds. The impending implementation of biometric identification will reduce the widespread corrupt practices in hos pitals.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.71bn (USD1.54bn) in 2015 to BGN2.88bn (USD1.57bn) in 2016; +6.4% in local currency terms and +2.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly reduced from last quarter .

  • Healthcare: BGN7.57bn (USD4.29bn) in 2015 to BGN8.02bn (USD4.38bn) in 2016; +6.0% in local currency terms and +2.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.718 1.537 1.574 1.637 1.681 1.738 1.830
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 3.03 3.14 3.25 3.33 3.41 3.50 3.58
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 35.9 35.8 36.0 36.2 36.4 36.5 36.5
Health spending, USDbn 4.788 4.293 4.379 4.527 4.624 4.767 5.016

Risk/Reward Index

In Q117, Bulgaria's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score stands at 56.8 and above the regional average of 51.1, which puts it at sixth position (up from seventh in the previous quarter) among the 21 countries that BMI monitors in this region. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook.

Latest Updates

  • In September 2016, Bloomberg ranked Bulgaria among the countries with the least efficient healthcare systems in the world. Out of 55 countries included in the index, Bulgaria came in 46th, three positions lower than in 2009. The index measures life expectancy, healthcare spending per capita and relative spending as a portion of gross domestic product (Novinite).

  • Acibadem, a European subsidiary of Asia's largest healthcare provider IHH Healthcare, announced on April 22 2016 that it had made two acquisitions in Bulgaria amounting to EUR75.97mn (USD85.80mn), making it one of the largest private healthcare providers in the CEE region.

  • Over H216 Bulgaria will implement e-health system in the hospitals and later on in GP surgeries aiming to prevent the falsification of patient numbers, a widespread corrupt practice used to receive more funding from the government. Although, this faced strong opposition, the motives for the implementation move appear clear and represent a positive move for the country's healthcare sector, resulting in cost savings.

BMI Economic View

Slowing real GDP growth across Europe post-Brexit will reduce Bulgaria's current account surplus in the years ahead, as the country stands to lose from weaker trade volumes with its European trading partners. However, as goods trade decreases, we believe increasing services exports from the country's tourism sector will prevent a more severe deterioration in the current account, implying few risks to the currency peg and financial account.

BMI Political View

While the passing of a series of highly contested parliamentary bills will spark tensions in Bulgaria's Muslim communities, the support for Prime Minster Boyko Borissov's government remains unfettered, which means we believe the government will serve its full term until end-2017.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
16
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
18
Patented Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
20
Generic Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
28
Industry Risk/Reward Index
29
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016
29
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
37
Regulatory Review
38
Intellectual Property Issues
40
Pricing Regime
41
Reimbursement Regime
44
Market Overview
47
Healthcare Sector
48
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
49
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
49
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
50
Table: Healthcare Activity (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
50
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014
54
Table: Bulgarian National Health Insurance Fund Revenues (BGN 000s), 2015
54
Research & Development
55
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2014
55
Clinical Trials
56
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
59
Competitive Landscape
60
Research-Based Industry
60
Table: Multinational Market Activity
61
Generic Drugmakers
62
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
62
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012
64
Company Profile
65
Sopharma
65
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
70
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
70
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
72
Glossary
74
Methodology
76
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
76
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
76
Notes On Methodology
77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
78
Index Overview
79
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
79
Indicator Weightings
80

The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.