Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The vote of no confidence against Bulgaria's government, despite being unsuccessful, has highlighted the dissatisfaction of a large proportion of the population with proposed healthcare reforms. A number of recent controversies have lowered the public's opinion of its governance, but new legislation appears to be addressing the long-held issue of an over-reliance on private s pending. Cost-containment will affect revenue- generating opportunities for drugmakers, but generic medicines will gain market share.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.71bn (USD1.54bn) in 2015 to BGN2.89bn (USD1.58bn) in 2016; +6.6% in local currency terms and +2.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards compared to the previous quarter .

  • Healthcare: BGN7.45bn (USD4.22bn) in 2015 to BGN7.85bn (USD4.28bn) in 2016; +5.4% in local currency terms and +1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased compared to the previous quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.720 1.540 1.580 1.720 1.910 2.100 2.220
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 3.08 3.24 3.33 3.42 3.49 3.57 3.63
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 35.9 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.4
Health spending, USDbn 4.790 4.220 4.280 4.640 5.110 5.630 5.930

Risk/Reward Index

In Q316, Bulgaria's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score stands at 56.8 and above the regional average of 52.2, which puts it at seventh position (same as in the previous quarter) among the twenty countries BMI monitors in this region. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook.

Latest Updates

  • The Bulgarian government will continue to implement various ambitious reforms in 2016, according to President Rosen Plevneliev, who made the announcement during a working meeting with the President of Greece, Prokopis Pavlopoulos. These reforms are aimed at the modernisation of the energy, justice, education, water and health sectors.

  • President Plevneliev further clarified that Bulgaria's absorption of EU funds is at least 95% and has successfully carried out reforms in the energy, security and social sectors in 2015. The flow of EU funds should continue until 2020.

  • During an interview with BloombergTV Bulgaria, executive director of Sopharma, Ognian Donev, said that the company gets 1.8% of the public resources spent on medicines and that the penetration of generic drugs is still problematic despite prevailing pro-generic trends. Sofia-based Sopharma is Bulgaria's second-largest drugmaker.

BMI Economic View

While Bulgaria's economy grew by an estimated 3.0% in 2015, we expect growth to slow in 2016 and 2017. This will reflect weaker EU fund absorption, which will curb gross fixed investment's contribution to GDP growth, and decreasing net exports amid an increase in imports fuelled by domestic consumption.

BMI Political View

Migratory pressures in Bulgaria will increase as a result of the deal between the EU and Turkey to resolve the migrant crisis and the subsequent closure of the Western Balkan route. As a result, far right parties could regain electoral support, implying a greater risk of political unrest and social tensions in Bulgaria.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
12
Healthcare Market Forecast
13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
15
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
16
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
18
Patented Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
20
Generic Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
28
Industry Risk/Reward Index
29
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
29
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Risks
36
Regulatory Review
37
Intellectual Property Issues
39
Pricing Regime
40
Reimbursement Regime
43
Market Overview
46
Healthcare Sector
47
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
48
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
48
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
48
Table: Healthcare Activity (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
49
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014
53
Table: Bulgarian National Health Insurance Fund Revenues (BGN 000s), 2015
53
Research & Development
54
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2014
54
Clinical Trials
55
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
58
Competitive Landscape
59
Research-Based Industry
59
Table: Multinational Market Activity
59
Generic Drugmakers
60
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
61
Wholesale Sector
62
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012
63
Company Profile
64
Sopharma
64
Demographic Forecast
68
Demographic Outlook
68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
71
Glossary
73
Methodology
75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Notes On Methodology
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Index Overview
78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
78
Indicator Weightings
79

The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.