BMI View: Bulgaria's expanding private healthcare market will provide significant revenue - earning opportunities for multinational pharmaceutical firms and medical device manufacturers. The poor state of the public healthcare system and the liberalisation of the private sector will see a rapid increase in private healthcare usage as the demand for more advanced and high-quality treatment rises. This trend is likely to be echoed across the Balkan region.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.71bn (USD1.54bn) in 2015 to BGN2.89bn (USD1.58bn) in 2016; +6.6% in local currency terms and +2.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter .
Healthcare: BGN7.45bn (USD4.22bn) in 2015 to BGN7.85bn (USD4.28bn) in 2016; +5.4% in local currency terms and +1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.720||1.540||1.580||1.720||1.910||2.100||2.220|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||3.08||3.24||3.33||3.42||3.49||3.57||3.63|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||35.9||36.4||36.8||37.1||37.3||37.4||37.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.790||4.220||4.280||4.640||5.110||5.630||5.930|
In Q416, Bulgaria's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score stands at 56.8 and above the regional average of 52.4, which puts it at seventh position (same as in the previous quarter) among the twenty countries BMI monitors in this region. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook.
Highlighting the challenges facing the country's healthcare system is the extreme difference in opinion over the trajectory of healthcare reforms, both politically and among the medical profession. Throughout the week of March 28 to April 1, general practitioners across the country went on strike in protest against the 2016 National Framework Agreement which came into force on April 1, claiming that some decisions harm the interests of doctors as well as patients.
In contrast, the Association of University Hospitals in Bulgaria sought to distance itself from the striking activities. Moreover, the Chairperson of the National Association of Medical Workers in Emergency Medical Aid Centres stated that the reforms to healthcare over the past year have been 'on the right track' and have 'definitely solved problems in the emergency medical aid'.
On March 28 2016, Minister of Health Petar Moskov announced that an extra BGN12mn (USD7.0mn) will be allocated to the National Health Insurance Fund budget to guarantee that 100% of patients with oncological diseases will be treated in 2016.
BMI Economic View
While the fallout from the Brexit vote will weaken real GDP growth in Bulgaria over the next two years, we believe that the effect on the country's budget deficit will be marginal, as persistent fiscal consolidation will mitigate the risks of a shortfall in government revenue.
BMI Political View
Bulgaria's failure to push through judiciary reforms to meet EU standards will further damage its reputation among European peers. Its half-hearted political will to combat corruption and organised crime will impair future economic growth and Bulgaria's attractiveness as a foreign direct investment destination.
The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.