BMI View: The vote of no confidence against Bulgaria's government, despite being unsuccessful, has highlighted the dissatisfaction of a large proportion of the population with proposed healthcare reforms. A number of recent controversies have lowered the public's opinion of its governance, but new legislation appears to be addressing the long-held issue of an over-reliance on private s pending. Cost-containment will affect revenue- generating opportunities for drugmakers, but generic medicines will gain market share.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.71bn (USD1.54bn) in 2015 to BGN2.89bn (USD1.58bn) in 2016; +6.6% in local currency terms and +2.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards compared to the previous quarter .
Healthcare: BGN7.45bn (USD4.22bn) in 2015 to BGN7.85bn (USD4.28bn) in 2016; +5.4% in local currency terms and +1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased compared to the previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.720||1.540||1.580||1.720||1.910||2.100||2.220|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||3.08||3.24||3.33||3.42||3.49||3.57||3.63|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||35.9||36.4||36.8||37.1||37.3||37.4||37.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.790||4.220||4.280||4.640||5.110||5.630||5.930|
In Q316, Bulgaria's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score stands at 56.8 and above the regional average of 52.2, which puts it at seventh position (same as in the previous quarter) among the twenty countries BMI monitors in this region. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook.
The Bulgarian government will continue to implement various ambitious reforms in 2016, according to President Rosen Plevneliev, who made the announcement during a working meeting with the President of Greece, Prokopis Pavlopoulos. These reforms are aimed at the modernisation of the energy, justice, education, water and health sectors.
President Plevneliev further clarified that Bulgaria's absorption of EU funds is at least 95% and has successfully carried out reforms in the energy, security and social sectors in 2015. The flow of EU funds should continue until 2020.
During an interview with BloombergTV Bulgaria, executive director of Sopharma, Ognian Donev, said that the company gets 1.8% of the public resources spent on medicines and that the penetration of generic drugs is still problematic despite prevailing pro-generic trends. Sofia-based Sopharma is Bulgaria's second-largest drugmaker.
BMI Economic View
While Bulgaria's economy grew by an estimated 3.0% in 2015, we expect growth to slow in 2016 and 2017. This will reflect weaker EU fund absorption, which will curb gross fixed investment's contribution to GDP growth, and decreasing net exports amid an increase in imports fuelled by domestic consumption.
BMI Political View
Migratory pressures in Bulgaria will increase as a result of the deal between the EU and Turkey to resolve the migrant crisis and the subsequent closure of the Western Balkan route. As a result, far right parties could regain electoral support, implying a greater risk of political unrest and social tensions in Bulgaria.
The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.