BMI View: The long-term outlook for Bulgaria's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets is generally positive. The much-needed reforms to Bulgaria's healthcare system are facing continued opposition; however their implementation is set to improve patient access to treatment for serious diseases such as cancer and improve the efficacy of government funds. The impending implementation of biometric identification will reduce the widespread corrupt practices in hos pitals.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.71bn (USD1.54bn) in 2015 to BGN2.88bn (USD1.57bn) in 2016; +6.4% in local currency terms and +2.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly reduced from last quarter .
Healthcare: BGN7.57bn (USD4.29bn) in 2015 to BGN8.02bn (USD4.38bn) in 2016; +6.0% in local currency terms and +2.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.718||1.537||1.574||1.637||1.681||1.738||1.830|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||3.03||3.14||3.25||3.33||3.41||3.50||3.58|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||35.9||35.8||36.0||36.2||36.4||36.5||36.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||4.788||4.293||4.379||4.527||4.624||4.767||5.016|
In Q117, Bulgaria's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score stands at 56.8 and above the regional average of 51.1, which puts it at sixth position (up from seventh in the previous quarter) among the 21 countries that BMI monitors in this region. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook.
In September 2016, Bloomberg ranked Bulgaria among the countries with the least efficient healthcare systems in the world. Out of 55 countries included in the index, Bulgaria came in 46th, three positions lower than in 2009. The index measures life expectancy, healthcare spending per capita and relative spending as a portion of gross domestic product (Novinite).
Acibadem, a European subsidiary of Asia's largest healthcare provider IHH Healthcare, announced on April 22 2016 that it had made two acquisitions in Bulgaria amounting to EUR75.97mn (USD85.80mn), making it one of the largest private healthcare providers in the CEE region.
Over H216 Bulgaria will implement e-health system in the hospitals and later on in GP surgeries aiming to prevent the falsification of patient numbers, a widespread corrupt practice used to receive more funding from the government. Although, this faced strong opposition, the motives for the implementation move appear clear and represent a positive move for the country's healthcare sector, resulting in cost savings.
BMI Economic View
Slowing real GDP growth across Europe post-Brexit will reduce Bulgaria's current account surplus in the years ahead, as the country stands to lose from weaker trade volumes with its European trading partners. However, as goods trade decreases, we believe increasing services exports from the country's tourism sector will prevent a more severe deterioration in the current account, implying few risks to the currency peg and financial account.
BMI Political View
While the passing of a series of highly contested parliamentary bills will spark tensions in Bulgaria's Muslim communities, the support for Prime Minster Boyko Borissov's government remains unfettered, which means we believe the government will serve its full term until end-2017.
The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.