Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 18 May 2015

  • 106 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Pharmaceutical manufacturers will face increased pricing pressures from the National Health Insurance Fund ( NHIF ) as we expect a wave of cost-containment measures to be adopted. The NHIF will leverage its purchasing power to reduce its runaway pharmaceutical expenditure, with negative implications for the sector's growth profile. We expect generic drug penetration to rise and patented drug sales to slow considerably as the NHIF rebalances its expenditures.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.53bn (USD1.72bn) in 2014 to BGN2.46bn (USD1.38bn) in 2015; -2.7% in local currency terms and -19.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q 1 15.

  • Healthcare: BGN6.04bn (USD4.10bn) in 2014 to BGN5.97bn (USD3.35bn) in 2015; -1.2% in local currency terms and -18.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised significantly downwards from Q115.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Our proprietary Risk/Reward assessment tool has been gradually adjusted to be increasingly transparent and sensitive in relation to potential Rewards. In Q3 2015, Bulgaria's Risk Reward Index (RRI) score (48.2) has fallen below the regional average (49.5). It has also fallen in our RRI rankings from eighth in Q215 to twelfth in Q3. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In April 2015, at a meeting with the Bulgarian generic drugmaker association BGPharmA, the health minister Dr Petar Moskov stated that the health ministry would introduce five new measures within amendments to the Health Insurance Act to curb pharmaceutical expenditure.

  • In April 2015, the Bulgarian health ministry announced plans to merge the management of nine hospitals in Sofia. The move will result in approximately 350-400 job cuts. Under the current plan, all nine state hospitals around Aleksandrovska are set to be merged in terms of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
40
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
52
Healthcare Sector
53
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Bulgaria 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Bulgaria 2009-2014)
55
Healthcare Insurance
55
Healthcare Reform Through To 2020
56
Reforming The Health Insurance Model
57
Healthcare Financing
58
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014
59
Table: Bulgarian National Health Insurance Fund Revenues (BGN 000s), 2015
59
Research & Development
60
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2014
60
Clinical Trials
61
Regulatory Development
62
Pharmaceutical Advertising
63
Intellectual Property Environment
64
Pricing Regime
65
Recent Pricing Developments
67
Drug Policy Amendments
67
Reimbursement Regime
68
Reimbursement Regime Developments
70
Competitive Landscape
71
Research-Based Industry
71
Generic Drugmakers
71
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
72
Wholesale Sector
73
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012
74
Company Profile
75
Sopharma
75
Biovet
79
Actavis Bulgaria
81
GlaxoSmithKline
84
Novartis
86
Sanofi
88
Pfizer
90
Merck & Co
92
Demographic Forecast
94
Demographic Outlook
94
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
95
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
95
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
97
Glossary
99
Methodology
101
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Notes On Methodology
102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
103
Index Overview
104
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
104
Indicator Weightings
105

The Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgaria pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Bulgaria, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc