BMI View: The outlook for the occupational market in Bulgaria remains positive in the medium term in all three real estate sectors. We expect occupier demand to strengthen in line with an improving economy and rents to rise further. However, a lack of high quality stock and a constrained development market will continue to curb activity in the investment market, with much of the interest continuing to come from domestic and regional investors as well as opportunistic players .
The macro-economic outlook for Bulgaria shows a steady but modest growth in GDP over the next five years. Economic growth is expected to be 1.5% in 2015 and to average at 1.9% per annum over the period 2016-2019. Growth is likely to be driven by expansion in domestic demand. The external sector is expected to remain weak this year and next, but to rebound thereafter.
In the office sector, business investment is expected to remain weak in the short term, given companies are in a deleveraging mode. That said, the situation is expected to improve in the medium term. BMI forecasts show an increase in output of tertiary services, particularly from 2017 onwards and that will underpin growth in demand for office space. Rents have already increased this year and we expect this trend to continue going forward. As the capital city, Sofia is likely to benefit most from higher demand and rental growth, but we believe that the prospects for secondary cities are also favourable. In the past year we have seen higher levels of decentralisation to Varna and Bourgas as occupiers limited by high quality of space in Sofia and looking for more cost effective space have relocated. We expect the higher level of office requirements to spur further rental increases in these secondary cities as the market shifts from being tenant driven to becoming increasingly landlord driven.
Rental growth has also been a feature of the retail real estate market in Bulgaria this year and with household spending expected to rise...
The Bulgaria Real Estate Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's Bulgaria Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Bulgaria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our company profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Industry Forecasts Outlook
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry.
- Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (USD per square metre and local currency per square metre).
- Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (‘000); real growth (%).
- economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Real Estate Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.