Bulgaria Retail Report

Published 02 July 2015

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Bulgaria Retail Report

BMI View: Bulgaria, the poorest country in the EU, will see its economy grow slowly throughout the forecast period. The country will lag to catch up with other members of the economic bloc and is unlikely to move out of the category of the least developed countries in the EU. However, despite lagging growth of household income and spending, the retail sector will expand and diversify.

Retailers in Bulgaria are projected to face limited growth opportunities during 2015-2019. No political decisions have been taken and economic reforms implemented which would provide optimism about rapid economic growth in Bulgaria throughout the forecast period. Real GDP will grow apathetically by 1.0% this year and the rate will not accelerate to above 2.0% until 2019. The Balkan country has a shaky financial system influenced by risky Greek banks and past bankruptcies, including the default of Corporate Commercial Bank in 2014. Even though Bulgaria's public debt is the second smallest in the EU (27.6% of GDP in 2014; only Estonia has a lower rate), the country is struggling to balance its budget. The parliament was seeking to approve the issue of EUR8bn worth of bonds over the next three years. Fitch approved new Issuer Default Ratings for Bulgaria in June 2015 assessing its long-term foreign currency debt with BBB- and local currency debt with BBB with a stable outlook. Such ratings may prevent the country from borrowing cheaply in the next five years and burden fiscal consolidation. As a result, Bulgaria retains a conservative economic growth outlook.

Despite somewhat pessimistic perspective, the retail market is seeing increased activity in the past several years. Mass grocery retail market which is almost entirely controlled by foreign companies, is growing rapidly and is expected to diversify in the medium term. 2014 marked a year of successful performance for the market's biggest players. Lidl recorded a 26% growth in revenue as Austrian retailer Billa had a 5% growth in...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
16
Retail Sector Forecast
18
Food & Drink
18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
19
Clothing & Footwear
19
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
20
Household Goods
20
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
21
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
22
Table: Household Income Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
23
Table: Labour Market Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
25
Demographic Forecast
26
Table: Total Population (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
26
Table: Population: Babies (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
27
Table: Population: Young Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
27
Table: Population: Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
27
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
28
Table: Population: Young People (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
28
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
28
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
29
Table: Population: Young Adults (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
29
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
29
Table: Population: Urban (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
36
Industry Risk Reward Index
37
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Retail Risk/Reward Index
37
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
40
Competitive Landscape
43
Food & Drink
43
Clothing & Footwear
44
DIY
44
Consumer Electronics
45
Glossary
47
Methodology
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
58
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Bulgaria Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Bulgaria Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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