BMI View: Despite the harsh economic climate in the European Union, the Bulgarian retail sector posted strong growth figures in the end of 2014 and the beginning of this year. The market is very active and we anticipate it to continue growing and diversifying as modern retailers increase their sales. The growth of household income and Bulgaria's increasing economic integration will drive the sector's growth until 2019.
The growth of total household spending will be rather flat in Bulgaria in the first half of the forecast period. The country underwent a harsh year in 2014 as the bankruptcy of Corporate Commercial Bank, the crisis in Ukraine, the weakening of leu against dollar and the overall political instability created a lot of uncertainty for the households and the businesses in the country. However, it did not take long for the Bulgarian retail sector to start rebounding as the retail sales posted a 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in December 2014, one of the fastest in the European Union ending the year with a positive growth result in both leu and dollar terms. BMI projects that the sector will sustain a precarious growth over 2015 amidst the continental economic instability as the leu value of total household spending will rise by 0.7%. The predicted 6.1% decline of total household spending in dollar terms, therefore, will not be completely indicative of consumer confidence as the growth in demand will remain positive. As all of the European currencies depreciated against dollar in the second half of 2014, the continent's countries will post unrealistically negative extent of decline in dollar terms with Bulgaria being no exception. However, it is worth noting that dollar-denominated products, mostly personal care and some household goods, will become less affordable for Bulgarian households and could possibly hit the retailers operating in these two sub-sectors.
Even though a large part of the Bulgarian market is owned by foreign retail chains in...
The Bulgaria Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Bulgaria Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.