Bulgaria Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Bulgaria Retail Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Bulgaria Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Growth in Bulgaria's retail market will strengthen over the coming year , in line with the gradually brightening economic situation in the country. Consumers will benefit from low energy prices, subdued inflation as well as falling unemployment. That said, the recovery will remain slow and gradual, while a number of structural factors, such as negative demographic trends or widespread poverty, will continue to constrain full market potential.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Eurostat

Key Views & Developments

  • Strengthening economic outlook bodes well for the country's retail industry. Our Country Risk team has recently upgraded the country's 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% (up from a previous forecast of 1.7%). Over the short term, consumers will benefit from subdued inflation, low energy prices and falling unemployment.

  • Retail sales in Bulgaria increased by 1.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). This marked a slight slowdown from the 2.7% y-o-y growth recorded in December 2015.

  • American fast-fashion retailer Forever 21 is expected to open its first store in Bulgaria in 2016. The company will enter into partnership with the Greece-based Teren Management Europe, which holds the franchise rights for the brand in Bulgaria.

  • In early 2016, Bulgarian company NSN Investment has received approval from the country's competition authorities to acquire a share of up to 50% in the local electronics retailer Technomarket.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
18
Retail Sector Forecast
20
Food And Drink
21
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
21
Clothing And Footwear
22
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
22
Household Goods
23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
25
Table: Household Income Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
25
Table: Labour Market Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
27
Demographic Forecast
29
Table: Total Population (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
30
Table: Population: Babies (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Young Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: Young People (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Urban (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Industry Risk Reward Index
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
38
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
39
Rewards
39
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Mass Grocery Retail
42
Shopping Centres
43
E-Commerce
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Food And Drink
45
Clothing And Footwear
46
DIY
46
Consumer Electronics
47
Glossary
48
Methodology
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
58
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Bulgaria Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Bulgaria Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.