BMI View: The Port of Varna will see cargo growth in the low single percentage digits this year, both in terms of bul k tonnage and containers handled. Tonnage has always been rather volatile at the port. Our numbers reflect a steep decline last year according to official data. For 2015, we now expect a very small recovery. The general deceleration of Bulgaria's foreign trade growth will be a key factor. Box traffic growth will also be subdued, but a little stronger than last year, in part because - although constrained - domestic consumption remains the main driver of the economy and tends to require a high proportion of containerised imports.
The outlook for the Bulgarian economy is one of subdued growth. On the plus side, domestic consumption is receiving a boost from low international oil prices, growing real wages, and falling unemployment. But an overvalued national currency, high private sector debts, and weak investment are acting as obstacles to growth. The Bulgarian lev is pegged to the Euro. Lacking exchange rate flexibility, Bulgaria has pursued policies aimed at achieving an internal devaluation - a reduction of internal prices to regain competitiveness. Meanwhile, real wages grew 4.6% in 2014, boosting disposable incomes. Given that demand for credit remains weak, we expect rising disposable incomes to be the driving force behind Bulgaria's largely credit-less recovery. These factors are reflected in our forecast of 1.1% GDP growth this year (down from 1.7% in 2014). Next year, we believe growth will pick up modestly to 1.4%. Over the medium term (2015-2019), we expect it will average 1.7% per annum.
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 1.24% to 13.053mn tonnes; over the medium term (to 2019), we project an average annual increase of 2.0%.
2015 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 2.27% to 135,642 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs); over the medium term, we project a 3.5%...
The Bulgaria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bulgaria.
BMI's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bulgaria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian shipping market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.