Bulgaria Shipping Report

Published 19 August 2015

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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Shipping Report

BMI View: The Port of Varna is positioned to enjoy an impressive year of growth with tonnage set to be the outperformer , forecast t o increase by 14.00% year-on-yea r (y-o-y ), while container throughput is also pencilled in to enjoy healthy growth of 7.00% y-o-y. The ongoing cyclical recovery in the eurozone will support Bulgarian export growth over the coming quarters, as Germany and Italy receive over 20% of Bulgarian exports, hence our forecasts.

In addition, although we maintain that the lev is overvalued, euro depreciation has meant that the lev has also depreciated considerably against major currencies over the course of 2015. As a result, exports to non-EU countries increased by 10.4% y-o-y between over the first five months of 2015, underpinning the healthy shipping forecasts we anticipate over the short term.

Russian demand for exports as the Russian economy remains in contraction, but Bulgaria's wide array of export destinations (and types of good exported) has enabled it to weather this storm, which is welcome news to domestic shippers who will thrive due to the diversification.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 14.00% to 14.70mn tonnes; over the medium term (to 2019), we project an average annual increase of 4.82%.

  • 2015 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 7.00% to 141,920 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs); over the medium term, we project a 4.66% average annual increase.

  • 2015 total trade growth forecast at 1.80%, down from an estimated 3.03% in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Winds Close Varna: Due to strong winds around the coastal city of Varna, a decision was made to close all ports and channels at the seaport, reported Focus News Agency at the end of May 2015. This development, coming, as it did, as a result of gale force winds, may result in our forecasts being slightly tweaked in the near future as throughput dropped slightly.

Navibulgar Buys New Vessel: Navibulgar has...

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Operational Risk
10
Industry Forecast
12
Port Of Varna Throughput
12
Table: Major Ports Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
17
Table: Trade Overview (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
17
Table: Top Import Sources, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
19
Table: Top Export Destinations 2006-2013, (USDmn)
20
Market Overview
21
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
21
Company Profile
27
Navibulgar
27
Shipping - Global Industry View
29
Three Container Routes To Watch In 2015
29
Global Company Strategy
36
Maersk Line
36
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
47
CMA CGM
53
Evergreen Line
62
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
70
Macroeconomic Forecasts
78
Economic Analysis
78
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
84
Demographic Forecast
85
Demographic Outlook
85
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
86
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
86
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
88

The Bulgaria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bulgaria.

BMI's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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