Bulgaria Shipping Report

Published 02 March 2015

  • 89 pages
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$1,295.00
Bulgaria Shipping Report

Growth Forecasts Cut Back Again

Low single-digit growth is expected for cargo throughput at Varna Port this year. Tonnage has always been rather volatile at the port, and we have updated our numbers to incorporate a steep decline last year according to published official data. For 2015, we now expect a very small recovery. The general deceleration of Bulgaria's foreign trade growth will be a factor. Box traffic growth will also be subdued, but a little stronger than last year, in part because - although constrained - domestic consumption remains the main driver of the economy, and tends to require a high proportion of containerised imports.

We are downbeat about Bulgaria's immediate economic prospects, and since our last quarterly report have cut the 2015 GDP growth projection to 0.8% (down from 1.9% previously). We expect 1.2% growth next year (down from 2.9% three months ago). The main problem is that the country has been unable to overcome obstacles to growth highlighted by the combined political and banking crisis of June 2014. While on the political side, as expected Boiko Borizov's centre-right GERB coalition has formed a reasonably stable minority government, the banking crisis, coupled with deflation and a somewhat overvalued national currency have led to high real interest rates which are depressing consumer sentiment. In addition, Russia's suspension of the South Stream gas pipeline project (in response to EU sanctions over Ukraine) has created a potential energy crisis for Bulgaria, further worrying investors in the country. While the government may try to boost spending to kick start the economy, we think there will be only limited stimulus from this quarter, and that Bulgaria is following a painful process of internal devaluation to make its exports more competitive on the long term. In other words, no dramatic short-term improvements are likely.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 1.2% to 13.047mn tonnes;...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Port of Varna Throughput Outlook
14
Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
19
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
20
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
20
Market Overview
21
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Company Profile
29
Navibulgar
29
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
31
Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
31
Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
42
Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
44
Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
47
Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
51
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
52
Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long-
52
Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
57
Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
63
Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
63
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
64
Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
64
Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
67
LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
70
Global Company Strategy
73
Maersk Line
73
Mediterranean Shipping Company
82
CMA CGM
87
Evergreen Line
95
COSCO Container Lines Company
101
Hapag-Lloyd
108
Hanjin Shipping
114
APL
119
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
126
Mitsui OSK Lines
133
Macroeconomic Forecasts
138
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
143
Demographic Forecast
144
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
145
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
146
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
147
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
147

The Bulgaria Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bulgaria.

BMI's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bulgaria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc