Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report
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$1,195.00

Myanmar

The National League for Democracy continues to consolidate its position as Myanmar's new government, having installed leader Aung San Suu Kyi in the powerful new role of 'State Counsellor' in order to circumvent constitutional restrictions regarding the presidency. Nevertheless, the government faces an increasingly difficult uphill battle in accomplishing its wide-ranging goals around economic and political reforms in the country. Its first major test will be the upcoming 21 st Century Panglong Conference, targeted for July. The conference represents an attempt to move forward with the country's decades-long national reconciliation process, the heart of which is a national ceasefire agreement which has only been signed by 8 out of 15 major ethnic rebel groups. Should the government find a way to accomplish even a limited peace (its lack of control over the military, as well as myriad other complications makes a universal peace accord unlikely), it would free up highly taxed government resources for the task of addressing economic reforms. That said, foreign direct investment continues to pour into the country and should be bolstered by an increase in confidence following the positive election outcome, and we believe that even incremental moves in the right direction will keep the economy on track for strong growth over the coming years. We forecast real GDP growth of 8.0% in FY2016/17.

Cambodia

The Cambodian economy boasts strong growth potential due to its low-wage population, vibrant tourism industry, and geographic location at the heart of ASEAN, which should enable it to benefit from greater regional integration. As such, we forecast real GDP growth in excess of 6.0% over the coming years. That said, there are several potential pitfalls, not least the recent deterioration of the political environment, with strongman Prime Minister Hun Sen becoming increasingly intolerant of opposition dissent amid declining popular support. This threatens to trigger a resurgence of protests among opposition supporters, which include the crucial garment workers unions, and could deliver a blow to the business environment undermining the country's appeal in the highly competitive industry.

Laos

Despite near-term weakness, we maintain our bullish outlook on the long-term economic growth trajectory of Laos. Importantly, the 2016-2020 socio-economic development plan, which outlined plans to diversify the economy into manufacturing and focus on its competitive advantage, will be a positive for the economy. Accordingly, we have upgraded our long-term real GDP growth forecast for Laos, and now expect the country to achieve an average growth rate of 6.8% per annum over the coming decade, up from 6.5% previously.

Since the new generation of leaders in the Lao People's Revolution Party (LPRP) took over in April, there has been a series of high level bilateral exchanges between Laos and Vietnam, and we highlight that this is a sign that the new leadership is trying to adopt a more balanced foreign policy stance (as chair of ASEAN in 2016). However, we believe that Laos will remain neutral on regional issues so as not to strain ties with China, as the latter will continue to hold large economic sway over its smaller communist neighbour.

BMI Index
6
BMI Risk Index - Cambodia
6
BMI Risk Index - Laos
7
BMI Risk Index - Myanmar
8
BMI Index League Tables
9
Executive Summary
11
Chapter 1
13
Cambodia Economic Growth Outlook
13
Strong Growth Potential But Risks Rising
13
Cambodia Mining Sector Outlook
14
Cambodia: Expansion Stunted By Ongoing Challenges
14
TABLE: SELECT MINERALS PRODUCTION ('000 METRIC TONNES)
14
Chapter 1
17
Cambodia Domestic Politics
17
No End In Sight To Renewed Political Crackdown
17
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
17
Cambodia Long-Term Political Outlook
18
Addressing Corruption And Inequality Will Be Key To Stability
18
Chapter 2
21
Laos Economic Growth Outlook
21
Long-Term Growth To See Improvement
21
Laos Pharmaceuticals Sector Outlook
22
Low-Cost Treatments To Be Favoured In Frontier Market
22
Chapter 2
25
Laos Domestic Politics
25
New Leadership To Adopt A More Balanced Foreign Policy Stance
25
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
25
Laos Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
27
Chapter 3
31
Myanmar Economic Growth Outlook
31
Acceleration In Store Following Economic, Political Stabilisation
31
Myanmar Oil & Gas Sector Outlook
33
New Refinery Will Reduce Dependence On Fuels Imports
33
Chapter 3
35
Myanmar Domestic Politics
35
Peace Process To Prove Elusive For NLD
35
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
37
Global Macro Outlook
37
Summer Of Risk
37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
39
TABLE: CAMBODIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41
TABLE: LAOS - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41
TABLE: MYANMAR - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41

Assess your risk exposure in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar with confidence.

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