Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report

Published 16 December 2015

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change

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Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Myanmar's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) dominated the incumbent, military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in November's general elections, setting the stage for an entirely new government in 2016. The results were tantamount to a social and political catharsis for Myanmar, which has been dominated by the military for decades and bore witness to the decimation of the NLD in the 1990s despite the fact that the party had emerged victorious in democratic elections. Nevertheless, we note that the political situation in Myanmar is still fraught with potential stumbling blocks as the NLD, USDP, and Tatmadaw will need to find a way to work together. The formation of a new, NLD-led government will also entail a veritable trial by fire for the largely untested political party, and uncertainties regarding the appointment of a president remain. That said, we believe that the election results, as well as the statements of acceptance from both the USDP and Tatmadaw since, have thus far constituted an ideal outcome in terms of Myanmar's political and economic reform drive.

The arrest warrant for opposition leader Sam Rainsy on November 13 confirms our view that the political truce known as the 'culture of dialogue' between the government and the opposition is over. This raises the prospect of renewed street demonstrations and poses possibly the largest risk to Cambodia's business environment since the aftermath of the 2013 election. Additionally, the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement will have mixed effects on the Cambodian economy. On the one hand, Vietnam's entry into the pact, and the elimination of tariffs in its exports and textiles sectors will undermine Cambodia's export competitiveness in this area. On the other hand, Vietnam is likely to benefit in terms of low-tech manufacturing exports, providing Cambodia with an opportunity to piggyback on growth in areas such as auto parts assembly as ASEAN economic...

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Executive Summary
11
Chapter 1
13
Domestic Politics
13
A Return To Politics As Usual Risks Resurgence Of Protests
13
Table: Cambodia - Political Overview
13
Long-Term Political Outlook
14
Addressing Corruption And Inequality Will Be Key To Stability
14
Chapter 1
17
Economic Activity
17
Myriad Headwinds Facing Tourism Industry
17
table: Cambodia - Economic Activity
17
Chapter 2
19
Domestic Politics
19
Land Reforms Hard To Come By
19
Table: Laos - Political Overview
19
Long-Term Political Outlook
20
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
20
Chapter 2
23
Economic Activity
23
Rate Cuts To Drive Bank Lending Rates Lower
23
table: Laos - Economic Activity
23
Investment Climate
24
Business Environment To Hinder Chinese Investment
24
Chapter 3
27
Domestic Politics
27
Tatmadaw's Reform Aversion Crystallises Following USDP Power Play
27
Table: Myanmar - Political Overview
27
Shwe Mann Ouster Reflects Tatmadaw Influence Over USDP
28
Long-Term Political Outlook
30
Regime Change From Within-
30
Chapter 3
33
Economic Activity
33
FDI Surge Underscores Bright Outlook
33
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
35
Table: Global Assumptions
35
Table: Develop ed Stat es, Real GDP Growt H, %
36
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
37

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar over the next 5-years?

BMI's Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.