Myanmar's parliamentary appear to be on track for early November, but a factional shake-up within the ruling USDP has created even more questions surrounding potential presidential candidates. USDP Chairman Shwe Mann was removed in a shock overnight coup in Naypyitaw in August, leaving the USDP without a clear presidential candidate. While current president Thein Sein may yet choose to return as president, he does not have a strong relationship with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose NLD party will most likely secure a large number of seats in November. Given that Suu Kyi herself cannot stand for the presidency, there is now no clear front-runner for the position. At the same time, it remains unclear if Shwe Mann, who does have a strong relationship with Suu Kyi, will cross the aisle to join the opposition, or potentially leave politics altogether. Shwe Mann's ouster is a reflection of the military's still-strong grip on both the USDP as well as the overall political situation in Myanmar, and suggests that in any event, political reforms are likely to proceed at only a modest pace over the coming years.
The culture of dialogue between the ruling Cambodia People's Party and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party is giving way to politics as usual as Prime Minister Hun Sen takes an increasingly authoritarian stance ahead of the 2018 elections. This poses downside risks to our political risk indices and suggests that a return to opposition-led street protests is increasingly likely. From an economic perspective, this could undermine the two key pillars of the economy; garment exports and tourism, the latter of which is already under pressure from a strengthening real effective exchange rate and the slowdown in the Chinese economy.
The resource-rich Laotian economy continues to face numerous headwinds stemming from lacklustre global metal prices and a deterioration of its fiscal position that has led to the suspension of about 250 state projects. That...
The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.
- Forecast the pace and stability of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar over the next 5-years?
BMI's Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.
- Benchmark Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar?
The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar against its neighbours.
Operational Risk Contents
The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:
- Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
- Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
- Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
- Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).
The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:
- Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
- Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
- Evaluate Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.