November's ASEAN summit in Myanmar shone the spotlight on the country's political reform drive, which we believe has lost considerable momentum over recent months. In particular, the government has not shown the willingness to make substantive amendments to the constitution, suggesting that opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will not be allowed to run for president in 2015's general elections. Furthermore, it looks increasingly likely that the military (Tatmadaw) will retain its automatic 25% share of seats in parliament. Combined with efforts from the ruling USDP to adopt a proportional voting system rather than the first-past-the-post system that has been used in the past, it is likely that the USDP and Tatmadaw will maintain a considerable preference beyond the upcoming elections. At the same time, we also note rising risks that general elections may be postponed, as the government has tied the elections to a nationwide ceasefire which is looking more tenuous by the day.
Chinese assistance for Cambodia's economic development has ramped up considerably over recent years, and we believe that this is a trend that is set to continue. During Hun Sen's visit to China earlier in 2014, the Prime Minister secured an agreement that will see China provide USD500mn in grants and loans per annum to assist Cambodia in developing its woefully lacking infrastructure. Domestically, however, Cambodia continues to face significant political challenges despite the fact that the opposition has rejoined parliament. In particular, a group of Cambodians has lodged a complaint with the International Criminal Court (ICC) against a group of politicians, security chiefs, and business tycoons. The complaint alleges that Cambodia's ruling elite has systematically seized land from its rightful owners, and that in many cases this land has been sold to multinational firms. Given the strong vested interests associated with Hun Sen's regime, we believe that the probable inaction on the part of...
The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.
- Forecast the pace and stability of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.
How will the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar over the next 5-years?
BMI's Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.
- Benchmark Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar?
The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar against its neighbours.
Operational Risk Contents
The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:
- Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
- Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
- Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
- Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).
The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:
- Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
- Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
- Evaluate Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.