According to Renault Group, auto sales for the first two months of 2015 came in at 617 units, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). As such, we maintain our growth forecast of 7.5% in 2015 (compared with 0.5% in 2014) on the back of stronger private consumption in Cameroon. Indeed, our Country Risk team forecasts real growth in private consumption to pick up to 6.5% in real terms in 2015 compared with our estimate of 5.3% in 2014. At the same time, the substantial decline of global crude oil prices since June 2014 and our Oil & Gas Team's forecast for Brent crude to remain subdued, trading in the USD40.0-65.0/bbl range in 2015 supports our optimistic forecast, as it represents a substantial tax cut for consumers. Low interest rates, which we expect to come in at 2.50% by end-2015, will marginally lend support to vehicle sales. Over the 2015-2019 period, we forecast auto sales to grow at an annual average of 7.1%, which will see sales reach 5,286 units in 2019.
We forecast fixed capital investment to grow at an average rate of 7.2% over the 2015-2019 period. This will boost demand for commercial vehicles (CVs), as explained further below. Capital-intensive drivers of headline growth are unlikely to employ many Cameroonians and since so many of the new mega-projects are foreign owned, we do not anticipate them having a major impact on domestic consumption. Instead, we believe job growth - a key driver of private consumption growth - will come from growth in retail and telecoms sectors, as well as some sectors of agriculture.
A marked uptick in infrastructure spending (with the government increasingly turning to China in its development efforts), and construction projects in particular, shows potential not just for CV demand, which often correlates with infrastructure investment, but also for the improvement of the country's roads to accommodate increased vehicle use. Road transport accounts for around 70% of the country's transport network but is severely...
The Cameroon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Cameroon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Cameroon.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Cameroon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Cameroonian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.