Cameroon Autos Report

Published 07 May 2015

  • 49 pages
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$1,295.00
Cameroon Autos Report

According to Renault Group, auto sales for the first two months of 2015 came in at 617 units, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). As such, we maintain our growth forecast of 7.5% in 2015 (compared with 0.5% in 2014) on the back of stronger private consumption in Cameroon. Indeed, our Country Risk team forecasts real growth in private consumption to pick up to 6.5% in real terms in 2015 compared with our estimate of 5.3% in 2014. At the same time, the substantial decline of global crude oil prices since June 2014 and our Oil & Gas Team's forecast for Brent crude to remain subdued, trading in the USD40.0-65.0/bbl range in 2015 supports our optimistic forecast, as it represents a substantial tax cut for consumers. Low interest rates, which we expect to come in at 2.50% by end-2015, will marginally lend support to vehicle sales. Over the 2015-2019 period, we forecast auto sales to grow at an annual average of 7.1%, which will see sales reach 5,286 units in 2019.

We forecast fixed capital investment to grow at an average rate of 7.2% over the 2015-2019 period. This will boost demand for commercial vehicles (CVs), as explained further below. Capital-intensive drivers of headline growth are unlikely to employ many Cameroonians and since so many of the new mega-projects are foreign owned, we do not anticipate them having a major impact on domestic consumption. Instead, we believe job growth - a key driver of private consumption growth - will come from growth in retail and telecoms sectors, as well as some sectors of agriculture.

A marked uptick in infrastructure spending (with the government increasingly turning to China in its development efforts), and construction projects in particular, shows potential not just for CV demand, which often correlates with infrastructure investment, but also for the improvement of the country's roads to accommodate increased vehicle use. Road transport accounts for around 70% of the country's transport network but is severely...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Cameroon 2013-2019)
14
Sales
14
Infrastructure
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Economic Analysis
17
Table: Economic Activity (Cameroon 2010-2019)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
23
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Index
26
Competitive Landscape
27
Trade
28
Company Profile
29
Company Monitor
29
MEA A Good Starting Point
30
Key Markets Also Bring Challenges
31
Regional Overview
34
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Production Investment
34
Global Industry Overview
36
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
36
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
36
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
38
Asia Carries The BRIC States
39
Demographic Forecast
41
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Cameroon 1990-2025)
42
Table: Key Population Ratios (Cameroon 1990-2025)
42
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Cameroon 1990-2025)
43
Table: Population By Age Group (Cameroon 1990-2025)
43
Table: Population By Age Group % (Cameroon 1990-2025)
44
Methodology
46
Industry Forecasts
46
Sector-Specific Methodology
47
Sources
47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
48
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
49

The Cameroon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Cameroon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Cameroon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Cameroon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Cameroonian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc