Cameroon Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Cameroon Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Economic expansion in Cameroon is accelerating, and we predict that real GDP grow will be 4.6% in 2014. The country's economy will outperform its Central African peers, averaging 4.8% growth between 2014 and 2018.

  • Faltering oil production and high import demand will cause Cameroon's current account deficit to widen to 6.0% in 2014. We expect the shortfall to remain relatively stable over the coming years.

  • High spending on capital projects will keep the country's fiscal deficit wide. The shortfall could expand rapidly if the government is unable to control spending on costly fuel subsidies.

  • The Banque des États de l'Afrique Centrale cut its core interest rate by 250 basis points to 3.25%. While we do not expect that the cut will have a significant impact on the regional economy, further loosening is likely in 2014.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Escalating violence in the Central African Republic poses a threat to Cameroon's eastern province. We believe that the government will succeed in preventing a major breakdown of political authority, but a larger-than-expected influx of refugees could destabilise the region.

  • New oil discoveries could lead to a significant change to our balance of payments and government revenue forecasts.

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risk
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Strong Growth Ahead As Government Investment Improves Production
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Budget Deficit Grows But Remains Sustainable
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Savings Shortfall Will Force Current Account Deficit Deeper
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy
16
Low Inflation To Continue Through 2016
16
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Cameroon Economy To 2025
19
Growth Outlook Stable As Infrastructure Pipeline Pays Off
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Succession And Fiscal Position Threatened By Islamist Attacks
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Stability Threatened Both At Home And Abroad
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Economic Openness
29
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT PRODUCTS & IMPORT PARTNERS, 2008-2012, USD, MN
31
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
31
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
32
Availability Of Labour
34
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
35
TABLE: TOP SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
37
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Macro Outlook
39
Emerging Markets Near Inflexion Point
39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in Cameroon with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Cameroon with confidence.

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