BMI View: Cameroon ' s construction industry will record strong growth throughout our forecast period as the government directs substantial expenditure towards tackling its infrastructure deficit and foreign direct investment flows into the market. Upgrades to transport and power infrastructure will be the key drivers of growth during this period as Cameroon works to improve the overall ease of doing business in the country. Posing a downside risk to our outlook are potential threats to political stability, which could see investors becoming more cautious when operating in the market.
Forecast & Industry Developments
We are maintaining our forecast for 9.4% real growth in 2016. The market will record robust growth over the first half of our forecast period between 2016 and 2025, expanding at an annual average of 8.8% in real terms and making it the second-fastest growing infrastructure market in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) after Ethiopia.
Over our full 10-year forecast period up to 2020 we project industry growth to average 8% in real terms. Nominal industry value is expected to rise from an estimated USD1.9bn in 2015 to USD6.1bn in 2025, keeping Cameroon as one of the smaller infrastructure markets in West Africa.
Cameroon boasts one of the more developed public-private partnership frameworks in SSA and continues to draw in foreign direct investment from a range of international firms, most notably from France, Italy and China.
Improvements to overall logistics will provide the largest boost to growth, particularly efforts to harness the country's hydropower potential and work under way at the new USD850mn Kribi Port. Increased activity in the non-residential sector is also supporting our positive outlook, with Cameroon's hosting of the Africa Cup of Nations in 2019 providing opportunities in commercial construction.
Political risk presents a downside risk to our forecast and is a chief deterrent to operating in the market. Concern stems from the political vacuum that would be left in the wake of incumbent president Paul Biya's unplanned departure from office and the growing presence of Nigeria terrorist group Boko Haram in the country.
|f=BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
|Construction industry value, XAFbn||1,257.17||1,411.68||1,585.31||1,766.04||1,970.02|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||9.35||8.89||9.20||8.35||8.15|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||6.7||6.8||6.9||7.0||7.1|
Cameroon's overall position in our Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index for SSA has improved this quarter, with the market now in ninth place out of 17 markets, up from 11th. It scores 40.7 out of 100, up from 37.8, and is above the regional average of 39.3.
This shift comes from an improvement in its Industry Rewards score, to 45.0 from 37.5. Strong government commitment to infrastructure development and a robust growth trajectory have helped boost the market's performance in this indicator.
Cameroon's Country Risk score has deteriorated, however, owing to an increase in political tension as the ruling party seeks to move the presidential election from 2018 to Q117. It now scores 38.5 for this indicator, down from 41.1 last quarter.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Cameroon Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Cameroon Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Cameroonian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Cameroon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Cameroonian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.