BMI View: With an FID on Golar LNG and a stronger - than - expected oil production growth, Cameroon benefited f ro m an upward revision in both oil and gas production over our forecast period. In addition, the country will now become an LNG net exporter from 2017 onward, an important tool for exports diversification , notably after the large oil price drop over the past year. Nevertheless, we maintain that Cameroon remains a modest oil and gas producer and more exploration will need to take place to boost its long-term prospects further.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||81.0||89.1||86.7||87.0||89.3||88.9||86.2|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.3||0.3||0.3||1.9||2.7||2.8||2.8|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.6||0.6||0.7||1.2||1.2||1.3||1.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||43.2||43.2||43.2||58.3||59.5||60.1||60.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||40.7||43.1||45.7||48.4||51.3||54.4||57.1|
Ongoing exploration provides much-needed upside risk to Cameroon's oil reserves. The country's offshore basins are the most prospective, with the Rio del Rey Basin to attract the most interest. In the context of bearish oil prices, we believe that Cameroon stands to benefit from international oil companies (IOCs) refocusing investments towards more proven and shallow-water offshore plays.
In December 2015, Bowleven submitted the Bomono Exploitation Authorisation Application (BEAA) to the Cameroon authorities as planned. The BEAA outlines plans to develop Bomono following completion of the ongoing extended well testing programme.
In February 2016, Victoria Oil and Gas further expanded its presence in the area by reaching an agreement with Glencore Exploration Cameroon Limited and Afex Global Limited to acquire a 75% interest in Cameroon's Matanda PSC, with AFEX retaining a 25% share. The companies plan to submit a new work program to the Government of Cameroon for approval and expect to commence the first phase of seismic data acquisition in the fourth quarter of 2016.
We estimate oil production rose to just under 90,000b/d in 2015 and we expect production to remain close to this level until 2020, with several small field developments offsetting the decline at maturing fields. However, new exploration and discoveries will be necessary if Cameroon is to stabilise or grow its output and conserve its net export potential in the longer term.
We maintain our current refining forecast, keeping it unchanged this quarter. There are no updates on progress toward the Limbe refinery expansion plans. We note increasing downside risks to the project over the coming quarters, with the government critically lacking funds due to falling oil prices.
A small boost in crude oil production should maintain Cameroon's status as a net crude oil exporter in the medium term. The refinery expansion project should help boost Cameroon's small net refined products exports by 2017.
We have revised up our Cameroon natural gas production forecast following the final approval made by Golar and Perenco on the Cameroon floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project. The project will see production ramp-up by a further 1.6 billion cubic metres (bcm) over 2017-2018 to feed to LNG terminal.
Gas consumption is still very small, but is slowly ramping up as gas supply agreements with power generation companies and manufacturing companies are being put into place. The ramp-up will continue to 2019, by which time gas production ramp-ups will be geared toward the Golar FLNG project, resulting in a stagnation of gas available for domestic consumption unless production ramps up further.
Following a final investment decision (FID) on the Golar FLNG project in October 2015, we have included the FLNG project within our forecast period. The project will effectively turn Cameroon into a gas exporter from 2017 onwards, with LNG net exports of 1.5bcm-1.6bcm from 2018 onwards.
The Cameroon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Cameroon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Cameroon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Cameroonian oil and gas industry.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
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