Canada Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Canada Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : The Canadian grain s and beef sectors will emerge as winners of the Trans-Pacific Partnership , and expanded export possibilities will deliver output stability out to 2020. However, beef production will be constrained due to cattle supply . The Canadian pork sector will remain stable, largely as demand for Canadian live swine to the US remains steady. The dairy sector will post lacklustre growth prospects , whil e the sugar industry remains under pressure from low prices and competes with global production from Brazil and Asia. Canadian sugar production will recover modestly in the face of low international prices and increasing imports, without being protected by substantial import tariffs.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO

Key Forecasts

  • Barley production growth in 2015/16: 15.5 % to 8.23 mn tonnes. Output will increase as the crop recovers from the significant losses of last year.

  • Poul try production growth in 2015/16: 4.5% to 1.16 mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' increasing shift away from red meat, making poultry the most consumed meat in Canada.

  • 2016 real GDP growth: 1.4 % y-o-y. An increase compared with 1.2% in 2015.

  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y average. An increase compared with 1.1% in 2015.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value : 0.8% y-o-y increase to USD37.1 bn in 2016. Forecast to increase by an average of around 2.1% annually between 2016 and 2020.

Industry Outlook

Wheat production will post solid growth in 2016/17 as output recovers from two consecutive years of poor yields. Out to 2019/20, output will grow strongly due to continued demand from cattle farmers and expanded export opportunities. In particular, we view Canada's grains sector as one of the winners from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Tight cattle supplies will constrain growth in beef production as producers focus on expanding their cattle herd. Poultry is now the most consumed meat in Canada and will maintain its outperformance, particularly as beef demand falls to multi-year lows. Exports of Canadian live swine will outperform those of pork meat as the US ramps up imports of Canadian pigs and the loss of the Russian market continues to weigh on pork exports.

Cheese and butter output will benefit from the need to rebuild stocks in the short term. Out to 2019/20, we expect limited growth in dairy production but a boom in demand for artisanal cheeses. Canada managed to maintain the protection of its dairy sector under the TPP, leaving the sector shielded from imports.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Latest Updates
11
Table: Canada - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
11
Table: Risks To Outlook
12
Structural Trends
12
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Canada 2015-2020)
15
Sugar Outlook
16
Latest Updates
16
Table: Canada - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
16
Table: Risks To Outlook
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Canada 2015-2020)
20
Dairy Outlook
21
Latest Updates
21
Table: Canada - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
21
Table: Risks To Outlook
21
Structural Trends
22
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Canada 2015-2020)
24
Livestock Outlook
25
Latest Updates
25
Table: Canada - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
25
Table: Risks To Outlook
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Canada 2015-2020)
29
Commodity Price Analysis
30
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
30
Upstream Analysis
32
Americas GM Outlook
32
Americas Machinery Outlook
38
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
41
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
45
Downstream Analysis
51
Food
51
Latest Forecasts
51
Structural Trends
52
Regional Overview
55
Competitive Landscape
62
Table: Canada - Major Agribusiness Companies
62
Demographic Forecast
63
Demographic Outlook
63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Canada 1990-2025)
64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Canada 1990-2025)
64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Canada 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group (Canada 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Canada 1990-2025)
66
Methodology
68
Industry Forecast Methodology
68
Sector-Specific Methodology
69

The Canada Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.