BMI View: Canada will post a moderate increase in grains production in 2015/16, because the area planted will increase as available land recovers from being inaccessible for plantings last year. The country's poultry industry is well placed to post strong growth in 20 14/ 15 and beyond, while we believe that the Canadian beef and pork industries will gain the most from having signed the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement in October 2013. We believe that Canada's milk supply management system will remain for the foreseeable future.
| Agribusiness Market Value |
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
| e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: FAO, BMI |
Wheat production decline 2013/14 to 2018/19: 13.3% to 32.5mn tonnes. This low figure is due to base effects, as the 2013/14 season was a bumper harvest. Production will increase by 12.1% on the 2014/15 level as yields will increase and the country becomes a more important player on the global market.
Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 11.5% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' perception that poultry is a healthier meat, along with increasing export opportunities. The recent signing of the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement is also expected to stimulate production.
2015 real GDP growth: 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). A decrease compared with 2.4% in 2014.
2015 consumer price inflation: 0.9% y-o-y average. A decrease compared with 1.9% in 2014.
BMI universe agribusiness market value: 3.8% y-o-y increase to USD33.9bn in 2015/16. Forecast to increase by an average of 2.5% annually between 2015/16 and 2018/19.
In 2014/15, we expect milk production to increase marginally by 1.5% to reach 8.5mn tonnes, an upward revision on our earlier forecast of a contraction in output of 0.6%. We see this increase in milk output in spite of the high price of live cattle for slaughter, which has tempted some farmers to sell some of their dairy herd. Meanwhile, milk prices have recently...
The Canada Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.