BMI View: The Canadian grains and beef sectors will be among the winners of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and these expanded export opportunities will support output growth to 2019. However, beef production will be constrained in the short term by tight cattle supplies. The dairy sector will remain shielded from imports and avoid output cuts, while sugar producers will face the threat of cheaper imports.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Wheat production growth 2014/15 to 2018/19: 10.9% to 32.5mn tonnes. Output will increase as the country becomes a more important player on the global market, though will remain below the record levels of production from 2013/14.
Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 7.4% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' increasing shift away from red meat, making poultry the most consumed meat in Canada.
2016 real GDP growth: 1.8% y-o-y. An increase compared with 1.2% in 2015.
2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y average. An increase compared with 0.9% in 2015.
BMI universe agribusiness market value : 1.4% y-o-y increase to USD39.1 bn in 2016. Forecast to increase by an average of 2.6% annually between 2016 and 2019.
Wheat and barley production will post solid growth in 2016/17 as output recovers from two consecutive years of poor yields. Out to 2018/19, output will grow strongly due to continued demand from cattle farmers and expanded export opportunities. In particular, we view Canada's grains sector as one of the winners from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Tight cattle supplies will constrain growth in beef production as producers focus on expanding their cattle herd. Poultry is now the most consumed meat in Canada and will maintain its outperformance, particularly as beef demand falls to multi-year lows. Exports of Canadian live swine will outperform pork meat as US imports of Canadian swine increase in 2016 while the loss of the Russian market will continue to weigh on pork exports.
Cheese and butter output will benefit from the need to rebuild stocks in the short term. Out to 2018/19, we expect limited growth in dairy production but a boom in demand for artisanal cheeses. Canada managed to maintain the protection of its dairy sector under the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, leaving the sector shielded from imports.
Canadian sugar production will decline in 2015/16 as the sector will face low international prices and increasing imports, without being protected by substantial import tariffs. Similarly, demand will revert to its trend decline in 2016 after taking advantage of low sugar prices in 2015. Out to 2019, we expect moderate growth in production as global prices will increase slightly, while the sector is under threat of consolidation as Brazil and Asian countries scale up production.
The Canada Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.