Canada Agribusiness Report

Published 25 June 2015

  • 118 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Canada Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Canada will post a moderate increase in grains production in 2015/16, because the area planted will increase as available land recovers from being inaccessible for plantings last year. The country's poultry industry is well placed to post strong growth in 20 14/ 15 and beyond, while we believe that the Canadian beef and pork industries will gain the most from having signed the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement in October 2013. We believe that Canada's milk supply management system will remain for the foreseeable future.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production decline 2013/14 to 2018/19: 13.3% to 32.5mn tonnes. This low figure is due to base effects, as the 2013/14 season was a bumper harvest. Production will increase by 12.1% on the 2014/15 level as yields will increase and the country becomes a more important player on the global market.

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 11.5% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' perception that poultry is a healthier meat, along with increasing export opportunities. The recent signing of the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement is also expected to stimulate production.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). A decrease compared with 2.4% in 2014.

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 0.9% y-o-y average. A decrease compared with 1.9% in 2014.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 3.8% y-o-y increase to USD33.9bn in 2015/16. Forecast to increase by an average of 2.5% annually between 2015/16 and 2018/19.

Industry Outlook

In 2014/15, we expect milk production to increase marginally by 1.5% to reach 8.5mn tonnes, an upward revision on our earlier forecast of a contraction in output of 0.6%. We see this increase in milk output in spite of the high price of live cattle for slaughter, which has tempted some farmers to sell some of their dairy herd. Meanwhile, milk prices have recently...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
12
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
14
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
15
Sugar Outlook
16
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
17
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
21
Dairy Outlook
22
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
23
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
23
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
24
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
26
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
26
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
26
Livestock Outlook
28
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
29
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
29
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
29
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
30
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Canada 2009-2014)
31
Commodities Price Analysis
33
Monthly Softs Strategy
33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
42
Monthly Grains Strategy
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Upstream Analysis
51
Americas GM Outlook
51
Americas Machinery Outlook
57
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
59
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
64
Downstream Analysis
69
Food
69
Food Consumption
69
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2012-2019)
70
Confectionery
70
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2012-2019)
71
Canned Food
71
Processed Fish
72
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
72
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
73
Oils & Fats
73
Dairy
73
Drink
74
Alcoholic Drinks
74
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
75
Soft Drinks
76
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Canada 2014-2019)
77
Hot Drinks
77
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
77
Mass Grocery Retail
78
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
79
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
79
Regional Overview
80
Competitive Landscape
85
Table: Canada - Major Agribusiness Companies
85
Company Profile
86
Potash Corp
86
Table: 2015 EPS Revisions From Q414 To Q115
89
Table: PotashCorp - Financial Results
98
Saputo
99
Table: Saputo - Financial Highlights
110
Demographic Forecast
111
Demographic Outlook
111
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Canada 1990-2025)
112
Table: Key Population Ratios (Canada 1990-2025)
112
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Canada 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group (Canada 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group % (Canada 1990-2025)
114
Methodology
116
Industry Forecast Methodology
116
Sector-Specific Methodology
117

The Canada Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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