Canada Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Canada Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Canadian grains and beef sectors will be among the winners of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and these expanded export opportunities will support output growth to 2019. However, beef production will be constrained in the short term by tight cattle supplies. The dairy sector will remain shielded from imports and avoid output cuts, while sugar producers will face the threat of cheaper imports.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 2014/15 to 2018/19: 10.9% to 32.5mn tonnes. Output will increase as the country becomes a more important player on the global market, though will remain below the record levels of production from 2013/14.

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 7.4% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' increasing shift away from red meat, making poultry the most consumed meat in Canada.

  • 2016 real GDP growth: 1.8% y-o-y. An increase compared with 1.2% in 2015.

  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y average. An increase compared with 0.9% in 2015.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value : 1.4% y-o-y increase to USD39.1 bn in 2016. Forecast to increase by an average of 2.6% annually between 2016 and 2019.

Industry Outlook

Wheat and barley production will post solid growth in 2016/17 as output recovers from two consecutive years of poor yields. Out to 2018/19, output will grow strongly due to continued demand from cattle farmers and expanded export opportunities. In particular, we view Canada's grains sector as one of the winners from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Tight cattle supplies will constrain growth in beef production as producers focus on expanding their cattle herd. Poultry is now the most consumed meat in Canada and will maintain its outperformance, particularly as beef demand falls to multi-year lows. Exports of Canadian live swine will outperform pork meat as US imports of Canadian swine increase in 2016 while the loss of the Russian market will continue to weigh on pork exports.

Cheese and butter output will benefit from the need to rebuild stocks in the short term. Out to 2018/19, we expect limited growth in dairy production but a boom in demand for artisanal cheeses. Canada managed to maintain the protection of its dairy sector under the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, leaving the sector shielded from imports.

Canadian sugar production will decline in 2015/16 as the sector will face low international prices and increasing imports, without being protected by substantial import tariffs. Similarly, demand will revert to its trend decline in 2016 after taking advantage of low sugar prices in 2015. Out to 2019, we expect moderate growth in production as global prices will increase slightly, while the sector is under threat of consolidation as Brazil and Asian countries scale up production.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Table: Canada - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
11
Table: Risks To Outlook
11
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
15
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
15
Sugar Outlook
16
Table: Canada - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
16
Table: Risks To Outlook
16
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
20
Dairy Outlook
21
Table: Canada - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
21
Table: Risks To Outlook
21
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
26
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
26
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
26
Livestock Outlook
27
Table: Canada - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
27
Table: Risks To Outlook
28
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
31
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Canada 2011-2019)
31
Commodities Price Analysis
32
Monthly Grains Update
32
Monthly Softs Update
36
Upstream Analysis
42
Americas Machinery Outlook
42
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
45
Americas GM Outlook
49
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
54
Downstream Analysis
60
Food
60
Drink
71
Mass Grocery Retail
76
Regional Overview
81
Competitive Landscape
87
Table: Canada - Major Agribusiness Companies
87
Company Profile
88
Potash Corp
88
Table: 2015 EPS Revisions From Q414 To Q115
91
Table: PotashCorp - Financial Results
99
Demographic Forecast
100
Demographic Outlook
100
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Canada 1990-2025)
101
Table: Key Population Ratios (Canada 1990-2025)
101
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Canada 1990-2025)
102
Table: Population By Age Group (Canada 1990-2025)
102
Table: Population By Age Group % (Canada 1990-2025)
103
Methodology
105
Industry Forecast Methodology
105
Sector-Specific Methodology
106

The Canada Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.