In the light vehicle segment, we maintain our view that light truck sales will continue to outperform passenger car sales in 2015, in a total market set to grow 2.7%. This is borne out by data for 4M15, which show a 0.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction in passenger car sales, compared with a 6.9% y-o-y increase in light truck sales.
Despite the negative impact of lower oil prices on the country's oil and gas sector, momentum in the light truck segment will be sustained by an uptick in the construction industry, new model launches, and increased disposable income from lower fuel prices. As such we forecast for 5.0% growth for the light truck segment in 2015.
Conversely, we believe the passenger car segment will contract further as more fuel-efficient models become less of a priority for consumers. Within the passenger car segment, we see premium brands continuing to buck the downward trend, but overall car sales will decline 0.5%. In 4M15 there was still a notable leaning toward premium brands, with Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche all posting double-digit growth for the period.
Our most notable forecast revision comes in the heavier segment, where we expect growth in the road freight sector to generate demand for heavy trucks, particularly in the heaviest Class 8. We had already expected another year of positive growth for Canada's total heavy truck segment (Class 5-8), based on our Freight and Shipping team's forecast for 3.8% growth in road freight tonnage in 2015. Given the rapid growth of 22.6% y-o-y in Class 8 in Q115, however, we are revising up our total heavy truck forecast to growth of 5% from 3% previously.
Growth in the heavy-duty segment is also being driven by replacement sales following the implementation of new fuel economy regulations from 2014. As these regulations are being phased in until 2018, we expect this to be a contributory factor in average annual heavy truck sales growth of 2% for the remainder of our forecast period to 2019....
The Canada Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Canada Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Canada.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Canadian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.