Sustained lower oil prices, and the likelihood of more to come, given OPEC's decision not to cut oil output, has exacerbated the outperformance of the Canadian light truck segment in the latter months of 2014. This also means our more optimistic scenario for the passenger car segment to achieve positive growth in 2014 is looking unachievable, following a 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in November. While we expect the segment to post positive growth in 2015, this will be marginal and indeed our average annual growth forecast of 1% for the segment to 2018 means it will stay well below its 2008 levels of over 800,000 units.
In line with our expectations, light trucks continue their outperformance of the total light vehicle market, but even more so than expected as the promise of lower fuel prices drives sales. Segment sales for November were up 9.4% y-o-y and 10.3% in 11M14, which has prompted a slight upgrade to our light truck forecast to 10% growth for 2014. We still expect the total light vehicle market to grow 5.2% as the light truck upgrade has offset the downward revision to our passenger car outlook.
Production has not been keeping step with the record sales performance. This is in line with our view of an increasingly uncompetitive production base, which is losing out to other North American hubs such as Mexico and the southern US states. While there has been investment during 2014, much of it has been new assembly lines, or retooling, rather than large-scale brand new plants.
Our five-year average outlook for production is for moderate output growth, even though total output is still far below its 2004 peak. In 2014, we now expect a 2.7% contraction in light vehicle output, having revised our projection for passenger car output down from -4.0% to -6.0%. We still expect a marginal return to growth of 2.2% in 2015, up slightly from our previous forecast of 1.5%, following news of some expansion projects.
The Canada Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Canada Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Canada.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Canadian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.