Canada Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Canada Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Canada Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • We are mindful of significant uncertainty facing Canada's economy in the next few years, as a patchy US recovery and a high reliance on oil-related investment point to considerable economic headwinds.

  • Canada's Liberal Party government will struggle to maintain its reform momentum over the coming years.

Key Forecast Changes

  • We have lowered our policy rate forecast to 1.00% from 1.25% by end-2017, as the central bank will be mindful of heighten global economic uncertainty.

  • We have revised up our average exchange rate forecast to CAD1.30/USD from CAD1.34/USD in 2016 and CAD1.29/USD from CAD1.34/USD in 2017 after upward revisions to our oil price outlook

Key Risks

  • Heightened global economic uncertainty and the risk of a US recession could delay Canada's ongoing rebalancing process and dent it's longer-term growth prospects.

  • High levels of household debt and a frothy housing market are sources of potential instability in Canada's financial sector and overshadow the longer-term economic outlook.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Canada 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimates/forecasts. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.5 1.2 1.4 2.0
Nominal GDP, USDbn 1,761.5 1,530.4 1,552.9 1,637.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.2
Exchange rate CAD/USD, eop 1.16 1.38 1.29 1.28
Budget balance, % of GDP 0.1 -0.2 -1.4 -1.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.3 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Decline In Oil-Related Investment Will Cap Economic Growth In 2016
8
TABLE: GDP (CHAINED 2007 PRICES) BY EXPENDITURE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUALISED GROWTH RATE, %
8
Provincial Impact Analysis
9
Economic Rebalancing Will Shift Provincial Labour Market Dynamics
9
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
9
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
11
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
11
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
12
Fiscal And Public Debt Outlook
12
Limited Fallout From Ambitious Budget
12
TABLE: FISCAL BALANCE FORECASTS
13
TABLE: SELECT BUDGET MEASURES AND COST (CADMN)
13
Structural Fiscal Position
15
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
15
External Trade And Investment Outlook
16
Restored Competitiveness Will Keep Non-Commodities Exports Elevated
16
Outlook On External Position
17
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
18
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
18
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
18
Monetary Policy
19
BoC To Shift Focus To Monetary Policy Normalisation
19
TABLE: EXTERNAL COMPETITIVENESS INDICATORS
19
Monetary Policy Framework
20
Currency Forecast
21
CAD: Turning Neutral After Impressive Rally
21
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
22
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Canadian Economy To 2025
23
Structural Factors Will Constrain Growth
23
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
23
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Political Risk Index
25
Domestic Politics
26
Liberals' Dominance Will Benefit From Reform Momentum
26
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
26
Long-Term Political Outlook
28
Strong Foundation, But Some Challenges From Within
28
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
31
Global Macro Outlook
31
Emerging Markets Nearing Inflexion Point
31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
32
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
35

Assess your risk exposure in Canada with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Canada with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report