Canada Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Canada Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • We are mindful of significant uncertainty facing Canada's economy in the next few years, as a patchy US recovery and a high reliance on oil-related investment point to considerable economic headwinds.

  • Canada's Liberal Party government will struggle to maintain its reform momentum over the coming years.

Key Forecast Changes

  • We have lowered our policy rate forecast to 1.00% from 1.25% by end-2017, as the central bank will be mindful of heighten global economic uncertainty.

  • We have revised up our average exchange rate forecast to CAD1.30/USD from CAD1.34/USD in 2016 and CAD1.29/USD from CAD1.34/USD in 2017 after upward revisions to our oil price outlook

Key Risks

  • Heightened global economic uncertainty and the risk of a US recession could delay Canada's ongoing rebalancing process and dent it's longer-term growth prospects.

  • High levels of household debt and a frothy housing market are sources of potential instability in Canada's financial sector and overshadow the longer-term economic outlook.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Canada 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimates/forecasts. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.5 1.2 1.4 2.0
Nominal GDP, USDbn 1,761.5 1,530.4 1,552.9 1,637.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.2
Exchange rate CAD/USD, eop 1.16 1.38 1.29 1.28
Budget balance, % of GDP 0.1 -0.2 -1.4 -1.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.3 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Elevated Uncertainty Could Delay Economic Rebalancing
8
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE (CHAINED 2007 PRICES), SAAR %
8
Provincial Migration
10
Demographic Shift Favours Growth Outlooks In BC And Ontario
10
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
11
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
12
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
12
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
12
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
12
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
13
Limited Long-Term Implications From Expansionary Budget
13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
14
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Low Commodity Prices Will Reshape External Accounts
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
16
Monetary Policy
17
BoC To Err On Side Of Caution In 2017
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
18
Currency Forecast
19
CAD: Additional Upside Potential Firmly Limited
19
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Canadian Economy To 2025
21
Structural Factors Will Constrain Growth
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Next Phase Of Reforms: Major Challenges Ahead
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Strong Foundation, But Some Challenges From Within
26
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
29
Global Macro Outlook
29
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow
29
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
29
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
30
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
31
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
33

Assess your risk exposure in Canada with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Canada with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
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  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report