BMI View: We have lowered our real GDP growth forecasts for Canada from 1.4% and 2.0% to 1.0% and 1.5% in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Despite government efforts to cool down the housing market, weaker growth and tightening credit conditions could burst the housing bubble in 2017, triggering a period of painful private sector deleveraging. Taking into account these factors, we forecast that the country ' s food and drink industry will be adversely impacted in the near term, with growth picking up towards the end of our forecast period.
|Food And Drink Spending|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, National sources|
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The economic slowdown will continue to weigh on consumer confidence over the coming months, impacting headline food sales in Canada. Upmarket, niche categories, popular among higher-income households will be less impacted by the slowdown.
In autumn 2016 Canadian dairy processors expressed their concern over another increase in the minimum price to be paid for butter and skimmed milk powder. The 2.76% rise, imposed by the Canadian Dairy Commission, came into force at the beginning of September, following a 2.2% rise in February 2016, the first time that the body has increased prices twice in one year since 2008.
In September 2016, the interim chief executive of Canadian retailer Sobeys, Francois Vimard suggested that further cuts will be inevitable as the retailer seeks to cut costs and boost flagging sales. In an analysts' conference call, he said 'Our cost base is too high given our sales challenges across the country, and therefore it is critical that we optimize our cost structure so we can reinvest cost savings to drive the top line. We will need to work over the next few months to identify additional cost reductions aimed at improving our efficiency.' There were no further details of where the cuts might come from.
In October 2016 the Canadian government announced plans to revise the country's healthy eating guidelines with the aim of helping consumers make 'healthy food choices' as part of the strategy to tackle chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. The government said it wants the new guidelines to reflect the 'latest scientific evidence' on diet and health.
The Canada Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Canada Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Canada.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Canada through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
- Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
- Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
- Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.
Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.
Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.