Canada Food & Drink Report

Published 23 June 2015

  • 115 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Food & Drink Report

BMI View: The collapse in global oil prices will see Canada's energy-related fixed investment fall and unemployment rise, which will hurt household spending levels this year and next. Our latest oil-price revisions have prompted us to downgrade Canada's real GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.5% in 2015. Canadian households will - on balance- benefit from the decline in fuel prices, adding to their disposable income and limiting the downside to private consumption growth in the next two years. However, we have lowered our 2015 real private consumption growth forecast from 2.5% to 1.8%, as business sentiment and hiring expectations have moved decidedly lower.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption growth = +1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +1.5%;

  • 2015 alcoholic drink sales growth = +3.8% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.2%;

  • 2015 soft drink sales growth = +4.2% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.1%;

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales growth = +3.6% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +3.5%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Local Food Fund Provides Ontario Investment: It was reported in June 2015 that the government of the Canadian province of Ontario will invest around CAD5.2mn (USD4.16mn) in food projects to promote local food production, through its Local Food Fund. The investment is part of Ontario's plan to boost consumer awareness and access to locally produced food and beverages, grown and produced in the province. Ontario-based VG Meats and Longo Brothers Fruit Markets will receive CAD948,025 (USD758,472.4) and CAD446,138 (USD356,888) respectively from the government. The Local Food Fund will also support 12 other local food projects.

Walmart Snaps Up Target Stores : In May 2015, Walmart announced plans to buy 13 former Target Canada stores and a distribution centre in Ontario. The retailer said that it will spend about CAD165mn for...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2012-2019)
18
Confectionery
18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2012-2019)
20
Canned Food
20
Processed Fish
20
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
21
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
22
Oils & Fats
22
Dairy
22
Drink
23
Alcoholic Drinks
23
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
24
Soft Drinks
25
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Canada 2014-2019)
26
Hot Drinks
27
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
27
Mass Grocery Retail
28
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
29
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
30
Trade
31
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019)
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: Canada - Economic Growth Forecasts
41
Market Overview
42
Food
42
Food Consumption
42
Food Processing
42
Confectionery
43
Dairy
44
Drink
45
Alcoholic Drinks
45
Soft Drinks
46
Hot Drinks
48
Mass Grocery Retail
48
Leading Players
49
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Canada 2006-2015)
50
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Canada 2006-2015)
50
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Canada 2006-2015)
51
Industry Trends And Developments
52
Food
52
Drink
62
Mass Grocery Retail
67
Competitive Landscape
74
Table: Key Players In Canada's Food Sector
74
Table: Key Players In Canada's Drink Sectors
74
Table: Key Players In Canada's Mass Grocery Retail Industry
75
Company Profile
77
Saputo
77
George Weston Ltd
80
Maple Leaf Foods
83
Corby Spirit And Wine Ltd
86
Cott Corp
88
Loblaw Companies Ltd
90
Metro Inc
93
Sobeys
96
Walmart
99
Global Industry Overview
102
Table: TESCO - Selected Historical Financial Indicators
106
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
110
Glossary
112
Food & Drink
112
Mass Grocery Retail
112
Demographic Forecast
114
Demographic Outlook
114
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Canada 1990-2025)
115
Table: Key Population Ratios (Canada 1990-2025)
115
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Canada 1990-2025)
116
Table: Population By Age Group (Canada 1990-2025)
116
Table: Population By Age Group % (Canada 1990-2025)
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Sector-Specific Methodology
120
Sources
120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
121
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
122
Table: Weighting
123

The Canada Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Canada Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc