Canada Freight Transport Report

Published 11 August 2015

  • 76 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Canada Freight Transport Report

BMI View: We anticipate a broadly healthy growth rate across the Canadian freight industry over the short and medium term, with rail set to be the outperformer in 2015. Key factors underlining our freight forecasts include the lower oil prices that will reduce fuel costs across the mix, as well as stimulate consumer demand as domestic consumers have more money in their pockets due to cheaper prices at the pumps.

We forecast real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2015, which will mark a trough for Canada's economy. Over the next several years, business investment in machinery and equipment will gradually replace investment in the energy sector. We also believe it will be some time before the weaker exchange rate and stronger US demand will see non-commodity goods exports rise and draw down inventories to an extent that businesses would step up their fixed investment in machinery and equipment, which stymies our Canada freight forecasts somewhat due to the US' place as Canada's top trade partner.

One major development in terms of trade, is the looming prospect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which will have an impact on Canada's freight mix going forward. The US government has asked Canada to open up its agriculture sector if it wants to enter the TPP - a free trade agreement between 12 countries. According to US Under Secretary of State Catherine Novelli, Canada is yet to make the concessions necessary for entry into the deal, specifically in terms of agriculture, reported The Canadian Press. Should New Zealand gain access to dairy markets in Canada, among others, dairy imports to Canada will increase, with the air freight sector poised to benefit.

As ever, Canada's rail freight sector will be affected by the situation in the Canadian oil and gas market due to the scale of production in the country. Our rail freight forecast for 2015 is slightly up on 2014's (2.59% compared to 2.57%), predicated on the fact that we envisage demand for fuel exports remaining strong...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Trade Forecast
13
Table: Trade Overview (Canada 2012-2019)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Canada 2012-2019)
16
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013)
18
Table: Main Export Partners (2006-2013)
19
Road Freight Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight (Canada 2012-2019)
23
Rail Freight Forecast
24
Table: Rail Freight (Canada 2012-2019)
27
Air Freight Forecast
28
Table: Air Freight (Canada 2012-2019)
30
Market Overview
31
Company Profile
34
Air Canada Cargo
34
Canadian National Railway Company
39
Canadian Pacific Railway
44
Political Outlook
48
Domestic Politics
48
Long-Term Political Outlook
51
Table: Political Overview
54
Oil Price Outlook
55
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
55
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
55
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
56
Macroeconomic Forecasts
58
Economic Analysis
58
Table: Canada - Real GDP Growth Forecasts, %
58
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Canada 2012-2019)
67
Demographic Forecast
68
Demographic Outlook
68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Canada 1990-2025)
69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Canada 1990-2025)
69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Canada 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group (Canada 1990-2025)
70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Canada 1990-2025)
71
Methodology
73
Industry Forecast Methodology
73
Sector-Specific Methodology
74
Sources
76

The Canada Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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