BMI View: We take a broadly positive view for the freight industry's outlook over the next five years, particularly road freight, for a number of reasons. Firstly, lower oil prices will reduce costs; and secondly, although the decline in prices is curtailing exports, we believe this will be countered by the uptick in manufactured goods exports. However, we hold a less positive stance with regards to the airfreight mode, which will see incremental growth at b e st .
Although falling fuel prices are, on balance, a boon for Canadian households, leading indicators, such as the Ivey purchasing managers' index (PMI) and the Royal Bank of Canada manufacturing PMI have all been trending decisively lower since the end of 2014, each coming in below 50 (47.9 and 48.9 in March respectively), indicating a contraction. Coupled with a clear downtrend in the Nanos Weekly Economic Mood Index since September 2014, which correlates closely with annualised real GDP growth, we have made considerable adjustments to our economic growth outlook for Canada in the next two years. Imports of goods and services will grow just 1.0% in 2015 as fixed investment in the economy declines, having a detrimental on the Canadian freight industry.
The increased household budget freed up by lower fuel prices will spur consumer spending on non-essentials over the short term, boosting demand for imported goods with a concomitant uptick in goods transported by road. This should provide advantages to our road freight forecast for 2015 as truck haulage performance benefits from rising domestic demand, which is why we forecast steady year-on-year growth of 3.77%; a figure that is set to rise over our forecast period to 2019.
Canada's rail freight sector is, as ever, likely to be affected by the situation in the oil and gas market due to the scale of production in the country. The drop in oil prices is largely a reflection of increasing supply rather than a direct result of falling demand, which is why our...
The Canada Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.