BMI View: Canadian metal productio n will be driven by increasing import demand in both the US and Mexico to 2018 . Increasing manufacturing and industrial activity in the latter two countries should help drive demand for metal inputs. Moreover , a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar should help support Canadian exports.
Accelerating economic expansion in the US and Mexico in 2015, combined with a weaker Canadian dollar (CAD) in the coming quarters, will support growth in the Canadian metals sector to 2018. Indeed, we expect both the US and Mexico will experience positive trends in real GDP growth in the coming years, with automotive and general manufacturing activity picking up. We estimate 2015 real GDP growth of 2.7% and 3.5% in the US and Mexico, respectively, and forecast real GDP growth averaging 2.4% in the US and 3.8% in Mexico in 2016-2018.
| Foreign Growth To Support Metal Demand |
|US & Mexico - Fixed Capital Formation & Automotive Production, % chg y-o-y|
The Canadian dollar will continue to weaken against the US dollar over the next two years, averaging CAD1.200/USD in 2015 and CAD1.210/USD in 2016, compared to an average of CAD1.110/USD in 2014. Both a relatively dovish monetary policy outlook and continued weakness in global oil prices into 2015 will keep downside pressure on the currency. Since Canada is a significant exporter of aluminium, nickel, and steel to the US, and to a lesser extent Mexico, this exchange rate dynamic should support Canadian exports to end users in both countries.
| Rising US Demand To Bolster Export Growth |
|Canada Merchandise Goods Exports To US And US Durable Goods Orders|
On the domestic front, we forecast relatively subdued economic expansion, though growth in key sectors should support modest metals consumption. We currently expect real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016. Industrial capacity utilisation in Canada has been heading gradually higher, though is heavily dependent on the US manufacturing...
The Canada Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Canada.
BMI's Canada Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Canada.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canada metals market.
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BMI Industry View
A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.
Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).
Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.
The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.