BMI View: Canada's mining industry value will gradually return to growth on the back of improving mineral prices and a solid project pipeline.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Statistics Canada|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||24.10||21.20||19.20||19.00||19.50||20.20||21.10|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-11.00||-12.00||-9.00||-1.00||3.00||4.00||4.00|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Canada, a leading country in the mineral extractive industry, will begin to see a return to mining industry value growth over the coming quarters, supported by improving prices. We forecast the country's mining industry value to increase from USD19.0bn in 2017 to USD21.1bn by 2020, averaging 2.4% annual growth.
Gold exploration firms in Canada will increasingly attract investor interest as prices continue to climb. Furthermore, the stable operating environment in Canada and vast gold reserves will support growth opportunities. As of October 6, the number of gold mining investment merger and acquisition deals in Canada totalled 106, a multi-year high.
Despite a robust project pipeline, Canada's iron ore production growth will remain muted, due to the weak price outlook, over our forecast period to 2020. The Canadian government will step in to some extent to support iron ore projects, with the Quebec government pledging USD133mn to an iron ore project on the Quebec-Labrador border.
In the first seven months of 2016, Canada's mined nickel output increased by 5.5% to 143kt. We expect Canada's nickel output to continue to accelerate on the back of rising prices and new projects. Namely, Royal Nickel Corp's Dumont deposit will drive growth, with production guidance of 33.0kt annually over the first few years and 54.0kt annually by 2021.
The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.