Canada Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Canada Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Canada's mining sector will continue to contract through 2017, due to structurally lower mineral prices. The country will remain a major mining industry in the Americas, returning to value growth beyond 2017 as prices stabilise and reinvigorate project investment.

Canada Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Statistics Canada
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 24.00 20.60 18.40 18.00 18.60 19.30 20.00
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -11.09 -14.34 -10.50 -2.12 3.47 3.50 3.94

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Canada, a leading country in the mineral extractive industry, will continue to see a decline in mining industry value growth over the next few years due to weak prices. We forecast Canada's mining industry value to contract by 10.5% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, returning to growth as prices stabilise and averaging 3.6% annual growth over 2018-2020.

  • Key themes of slow growth, delayed projects, and cost-cutting efforts will persist across the country's mining sector. Canada's nickel sector will be the sector's production growth bright spot, averaging 4.2% y-o-y growth over 2016-2020. Nickel's relative outperformance will be supported by a stronger recovery in prices.

  • Canada's gold sector will continue to see consolidation and divestment among junior miners due to persistently weak gold prices. The sector will experience muted growth, as the weak price environment delays projects. We forecast the country's gold output to edge higher, from 4.9 million ounces (moz) in 2016 to 5.2moz by 2020, averaging 1.6% annual growth.

  • The country's mining sector will be hurt by slowing demand growth in Asia, with iron ore exports to China falling in 2015. On the other hand, the country's refined metal exports will fare better, supported by the Indonesian ban on nickel ore exports and a tightening zinc market. For instance, both refined nickel and zinc exports increased in 2015.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Canada Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019)
7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Gold: Weak Prices Weigh On Output Growth
10
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2019)
10
Table: Major Gold Projects
10
Structural Trends
12
Iron Ore: Muted Growth Ahead
15
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2019)
15
Table: Canada - Major New Iron Ore Projects & Expansions
15
Structural Trends
16
Nickel: Production To Ramp Up In 2016
18
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2019)
18
Table: Canada - Select Nickel Projects
18
Structural Trends
19
Indonesian Ban Boosts Canadian Exports
20
Zinc: No Return To Historical Production Highs
21
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Canada 2014-2019)
21
Table: Canada - Major New Zinc Projects & Expansions
21
Structural Trends
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Canada Risk/Reward Index
24
Rewards
24
Industry Rewards
24
Country Rewards
24
Risks
24
Industry Risks
24
Country Risks
25
Americas - Major Risks Across The Board
25
Regional Risks Increase Modestly
25
Weak Prices To Hurt, While Stronger Dollar A Net Gain
26
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
27
Regulatory Development
28
Commodities Forecast
32
Commodities Outlook
32
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
32
Competitive Landscape
33
Table: Canada - Select Companies, Financial Data, 2014
34
Company Profile
35
Canada - Company Profile - Goldcorp - Q1 2016
35
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data
38
Barrick Gold - Q1 2016
39
Company Strategy
40
Latest Results
41
Financial Data
41
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
41
Address Details
42
Canada - Company Profile - Teck Resources - Q1 2016
43
Table: Teck - Key Financial Data
46
Regional Overview
47
Americas Mining: The Three Key Themes
47
Key Themes:
47
Regulatory Environment To Remain Mining Friendly
47
US Dollar Strength And Low Fuel Prices To Incentivise Output
48
Latin American Output To Eclipse The North
49
Methodology
51
Industry Forecast Methodology
51
Sources
52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
54

The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.