BMI View: Canada's mining sector will experience slow growth due to continued mineral price weakness . The country will remain a mining powerhouse , due to the country's vast mineral reserves and reputation as a world class destination for mining investment.
|Note: See Industry Forecasts for specific commodity growth forecasts. e/f= BMI forecast. Source: BMI Calculation, Statistics Canada|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||27.06||27.20||27.74||28.57||29.29||30.46|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||0.25||0.50||2.00||3.00||2.50||4.00|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Canada, a leading country in the mineral extractive industry, will see modest growth over the coming years. We forecast Canada's mining industry value growth to average 2.4% y-o-y over 2015-2019, increasing from USD27.2bn in 2015 to USD30.5bn by 2019. This is significantly slower than the average annual growth of 15.2% over 2010-2014, with mining industry value peaking at USD34.4bn in 2011.
Major themes across the country's mining industry include slow growth, lack of new projects, and cost-cutting efforts. Canada's nickel sector will be the sector's production growth bright spot, averaging 2.7% y-o-y growth over 2015-20109. Nickel's relative outperformance will be supported by a stronger recovery in prices.
Weak mineral prices and the recent downturn in major global commodities importers, such as China and India, resulted in slowing production growth across Canada's extractive sector, including gold, iron ore, nickel and zinc. The higher start-up and operation costs of Canadian mining projects compared to other regions such as Latin America has led some multinationals to scale back or even defer projects, in some cases, also reducing capacity at exiting operations. Meanwhile, a number of junior miners have been forced to cease operations altogether amid falling profitability.
Canada's mining sector remains a key destination for foreign direct investment, which has included the growing presence of Asian and emerging market mining groups. Moreover, there has been a push to develop the country's mining landscape beyond tradition centres of mining activity to relatively untapped regions closer to the Arctic Circle. This has coincided with a rise in transactional activity as major firms such as Rio Tinto, Arcelor Mittal and Vale have sought to gain a steady foothold in the market through investing in local mining groups.
The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.