Canada Mining Report

Published 28 April 2015

  • 103 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Mining Report

BMI View: Canada's mining sector faces significant short-term headwinds that stand to curtail growth in output of key commodities such as gold and iron ore over 2015. At the top of the list is a strengthening US dollar which, combined with other factors, will see prices of several major commodities continue to depreciate over the coming months. Longer term, we expect Canada's diversified metals based and well developed capital markets to ensure it remains a top source of metals and financing, respectively.

Falling global commodity prices will present the main challenge to Canada's mining sector over 2015 with junior miners in particular struggling against narrowing margins. As such, output in many core mining segments, including gold and iron ore, will be sustained increasingly by larger multinationals with greater economies of scale. We expect gold prices in particular to trend lower over 2015 on the back of stronger dollar while iron ore and copper prices will also fall year-on-year in 2015 due to weaker Chinese demand growth and ample global supply. Subdued prices will set a higher threshold for ensuring projects remain economical, thereby limiting available funding for firms. Therefore, we expect mining firms to continue limiting capital expenditure (capex) to existing assets and scaling back exploration and development plans for greenfield projects. Indeed, the country's largest firms have seen capex spending fall in recent quarters, reflecting continued market headwinds.

We also expect to see further developments in M&A activity over the coming months as smaller miners look to combine resources and boost economies of scale amid narrowing margins. Q215 saw the completion of a merger between Alamos Gold and AuRico Gold to create a new gold producer, which will have a combined market capitalisation of about USD1.5bn and key producing projects in Canada and Mexico. The merged firm will own AuRico's El Chanate mine in Mexico and Young-Davidson mine in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Gold: Growth To Moderate Following Recent Boom
11
Table: Major Gold Projects
12
Financing Difficulties Abating, But Headwinds Remain
13
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
14
Iron Ore: Tepid Growth Ahead
14
Few New Entrants Into Sector
14
Table: Current Iron Ore Projects
16
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
16
Nickel: Growing Investment And Production In Years Ahead
17
Table: Select Nickel Projects
18
Tailwinds For Canadian Nickel Production
19
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
19
Zinc: Industry To Be Shadow Of Former Self
20
Minimal Growth Ahead
20
North Presents Opportunities, But Challenges Abound
21
Table: Canada - Zinc Projects
22
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
23
Rewards
23
Industry Rewards
23
Country Rewards
23
Risks
24
Industry Risks
24
Country Risks
24
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Canada 2010-2018)
25
Americas Industry Risk & Reward Ratings
26
Region Evenly Divided
26
Bearish Price Forecast Dampens Overall Outlook
27
Rankings See Some Reordering
28
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
29
Regulatory Development
30
Increasing Focus On Transparency
30
Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship Remain Top Priorities
31
Table: Canada - Political Overview
32
Table: Regional Regulatory Index
33
Commodities Forecast
34
Commodity Strategy
34
Ferrous Metals
34
Non-Ferrous Metals:
37
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
37
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
38
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
40
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Table: Canada - Largest Listed Mining Firms
47
Financing To Ease, But Headwinds Persist
48
Company Profile
49
Goldcorp
49
Latest Results
51
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data
52
Teck Resources
53
Latest Results
55
Table: Teck - Key Financial Data
55
Barrick Gold
56
Company Strategy
57
Latest Results
59
Financial Data
59
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
59
Address Details
60
Regional Overview
61
Regional Overview - Americas
61
Colombia, Mexico & Peru To Outperform The Region
61
North Versus South Divide Emerging In Coal
62
Americas To Lead In Copper Output
63
Environmental Protests To Present Downside Risks
65
Global Industry Overview
67
Unearthing The Key Mining Themes In 2015
67
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sources
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
80

The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc