BMI View: Canada's mining industry value will continue on a multi-year downtrend, as miners remain focused on cutting costs and curbing output in a structurally lower commodity price environment. Nonetheless, the country will remain a major global mining industry, supported by vast reserves and a stable operating environment.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Statistics Canada|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||24.10||21.00||19.00||18.80||19.60||20.40||21.40|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-10.66||-12.84||-9.43||-1.01||3.75||4.19||4.87|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Canada, a leading country in the mineral extractive industry, will continue to see a decline in mining industry value growth over the next few years due to subdued mineral prices. We forecast Canada's mining industry value to contract by 9.4% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017, respectively, returning to growth as prices stabilise and averaging 4.3% annual growth over 2018-2020.
We revised up Canada's gold production growth forecast based on the improving gold price environment. We now expect Canada's gold production growth to average 3.0% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017, up from previous forecasts of 2.0% and 1.6%, respectively. In terms of volume, we forecast Canada's gold output to climb from 5.3 million ounces (moz) in 2016 to 5.7moz by 2020, averaging 2.2% annual growth.
Iron ore and zinc will remain the growth weak spots, due to weak prices and limited project pipelines. We forecast muted production growth for iron ore and a sharper-than-expected production decline for zinc over the next few years.
The country's mining sector will be hurt by slowing demand growth in Asia, with iron ore exports to China falling in 2015. On the other hand, the country's refined metal exports will fare better, supported by the Indonesian ban on nickel ore exports and a tightening zinc market. For instance, both refined nickel and zinc exports increased in 2015.
The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.