Canada Oil & Gas Report

Published 06 July 2015

  • 180 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Canada Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry has grown increasingly modest over the past several quarters given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a lower oil price environment . The greatest threats to these projects are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that could hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production and LNG terminal development, weighing on total hydrocarbon output. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies revise capital expenditures in the coming years, with reserves likely to suffer as a result.

Headline Forecasts (Canada 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,000.9 4,312.0 4,585.5 4,780.9 5,004.9 5,112.7 5,179.8
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,894.0 1,894.0 1,950.8 1,950.8 1,950.8 1,941.1 1,931.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,497.3 2,486.8 2,537.3 2,588.8 2,639.2 2,665.0 2,691.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 145.2 142.3 138.0 133.9 131.2 128.6 127.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 103.5 106.6 110.8 113.1 116.4 119.9 124.1

The main trends and developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • Canada's proven oil reserves are expected to trend lower from 172.5bn bbl at the beginning of 2015 to 169.9bn bbl by 2019 due to a slowdown in oil sands investment. We expect reserves to steadily decline thereafter due to lower upstream activity on the back of sustained lower oil prices.

  • Proven gas reserves will increase from 2.0tcm at the beginning of 2015 to a peak of 2.11tcm in 2019 as exploration begins to decline. From 2020 thereafter, reserves will experience steady declines through the remainder of our...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2019-2024)
11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
14
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
23
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2013-2018)
23
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2019-2024)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
29
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2013-2018)
29
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2019-2024)
29
Refining
32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2013-2018)
32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2019-2024)
33
Refined Fuels Consumption
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2019-2024)
36
Gas Consumption
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2019-2024)
38
Trade - Oil
40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
43
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2013-2018)
44
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2019-2024)
45
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
47
Table: Major LNG Projects In Canada
51
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
52
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
52
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
53
US More Resilient Than Canada To Oil Price Fall
53
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
54
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
56
Downstream: US Comes Out Top
58
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
58
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
61
Canada Upstream Index - Overview
61
Canada Upstream Index - Rewards
61
Canada Upstream Index - Risks
62
Canada Downstream Index - Overview
62
Market Overview
64
Canada Energy Market Overview
64
Overview/State Role
65
Licensing And Regulation
66
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
70
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
73
Oil Refineries
73
Table: Downstream Projects
73
Service Stations
77
Oil Pipelines
77
LNG Regasification Terminals
83
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
84
Gas Pipelines
90
Gas Service Stations
93
Competitive Landscape
94
Competitive Landscape Summary
94
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
96
Table: Key Upstream Players
96
Table: Key Downstream Players
97
Company Profile
98
Suncor
98
Shell Canada
104
Encana
111
Other Summaries
116
Regional Overview
138
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
138
Global Industry Overview
149
Oil Price Outlook
149
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
149
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
150
Appendix
157
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
157
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
157
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
158
North America Regional Appendix
159
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
159
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
161
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
162
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
162
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
162
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
163
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
163
Canada - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
164
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
164
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
164
Canada - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
165
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
165
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
166
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
167
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
168
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
170
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
170
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
171
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
172
Glossary
173
Table: Glossary Of Terms
173
Methodology
175
Industry Forecast Methodology
175
Source
177
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
177
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
179
Table: Weighting
180

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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