Canada Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 April 2015

  • 176 pages
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$1,295.00
Canada Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry has grown more modest over the past several quarters given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors due to a lower oil price environment . The greatest threats to these projects are the challenging project economics and regulatory headwinds that could hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production and LNG terminal development, weighing on total hydrocarbon output. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies revise capital expenditures in the coming years, with reserves likely to suffer as a result.

Headline Forecasts (Canada 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,000.9 4,220.7 4,488.3 4,679.5 4,938.1 5,002.7 5,068.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,888.5 1,888.5 1,945.1 1,945.1 1,945.1 1,935.4 1,925.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,456.2 2,511.5 2,562.5 2,614.4 2,665.4 2,691.5 2,717.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 140.7 137.9 133.7 129.7 127.1 124.6 123.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 89.5 92.2 95.9 97.8 100.7 103.7 107.4

The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • Canada's proven oil reserves are expected to trend lower from 172.5bn bbl at the beginning of 2015 to 170.0bn bbl by 2019 due to a slowdown in oil sands investment. We expect reserves to continue declining thereafter due to lower upstream activity on the back of sustained lower oil prices.

  • Proven gas reserves will increase from 2.0tcm at the beginning of 2015 to a peak of 2.13tcm in 2019 as exploration begins to decline. From 2020 thereafter, reserves will to experience steady declines through the remainder...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2019-2024)
11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
14
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
23
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2013-2018)
23
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2019-2024)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
28
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2019-2024)
28
Refining
31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2013-2018)
32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2019-2024)
32
Refined Fuels Consumption
35
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2019-2024)
35
Gas Consumption
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2019-2024)
37
Trade - Oil
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2013-2018)
42
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2019-2024)
43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
45
Table: Major LNG Projects In Canada
48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
50
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
50
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
51
Upstream: US Closing On Canada
51
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
52
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
54
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
56
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
56
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
59
Canada Upstream Index - Overview
59
Canada Upstream Index - Rewards
59
Canada Upstream Index - Risks
60
Canada Downstream Index - Overview
60
Market Overview
62
Canada Energy Market Overview
62
Overview/State Role
63
Licensing And Regulation
64
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
68
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
71
Oil Refineries
71
Table: Downstream Projects
71
Service Stations
75
Oil Pipelines
75
LNG Regasification Terminals
81
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
82
Gas Pipelines
89
Gas Service Stations
91
Competitive Landscape
92
Competitive Landscape Summary
92
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
94
Table: Key Upstream Players
94
Table: Key Downstream Players
95
Company Profile
96
Suncor
96
Shell Canada
102
Encana
108
Other Summaries
113
Regional Overview
135
North America and Western Europe Oil&Gas Regional
135
Global Industry Overview
146
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
146
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
151
Appendix
153
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
153
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
153
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
154
North America Regional Appendix
155
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
155
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
156
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
156
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
156
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
157
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
157
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
157
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
158
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
158
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
158
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
159
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
159
Canada - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
160
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
160
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
160
Canada - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
161
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
161
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
162
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
163
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
164
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
165
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
166
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
167
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
168
Glossary
169
Table: Glossary Of Terms
169
Methodology
171
Industry Forecast Methodology
171
Source
173
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
173
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
175
Table: Weighting
176

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc