Canada Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Canada Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a low oil price environment . The greatest threats to these projects are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production and LNG terminal development, weighing on total hydrocarbon output. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies revise capital expenditures in the coming year .

Headline Forecasts (Canada 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,000.9 4,312.0 4,585.5 4,800.1 5,025.1 5,141.9 5,209.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,894.0 1,912.9 1,893.8 1,893.8 1,893.8 1,884.3 1,874.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,456.2 2,511.5 2,501.5 2,528.0 2,552.8 2,590.1 2,628.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 145.2 151.1 146.6 142.2 139.4 136.6 135.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 103.5 104.4 108.6 110.8 114.1 117.5 121.6
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

The latest developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following the election victory for the Liberal Party on October 19. A low oil price outlook and insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity will combine with the government's strong environmental mandate to undermine upstream and midstream developments.

  • Continued output growth in Canadian oil sands over the next two years will increase exported volumes of crude into the US. Lower oil prices have threatened the development of upstream projects beyond 2017, encouraging further cost saving measures throughout the oil-producing province of Alberta. However, we maintain that post-final investment decision (FID) projects that have already incurred substantial costs will continue to be brought online, increasing output by an average rate of 6.0% y-o-y between 2015 and 2017.

  • US President Barack Obama rejected the TransCanada's Keystone XK project on November 6, effectively ending efforts to build the project until a new administration takes over in 2017. This will sustain dependence on crude-by-rail transport given continued growth from forthcoming upstream developments and their inability to access seabound import markets.

  • On November 12, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) conducted the NL 15-01EN offshore bidding round in the Eastern Newfoundland region. This round ultimately assigned seven out of the eleven parcels on offer, raising just under USD905mn dollars. In spite of the investor-friendly nature, however, we do not expect these projects will advance until the end of the decade as producers continue to cut costs within a broader industry downturn .

  • On November 13, the newly inaugurated administration of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met one of his campaign promises and ordered a ban on oil tanker traffic along the northern coast of British Columbia (BC). This act weakens the potential for Canada to expand its crude export portfolio to Asia as these vessels were to form an integral part in increasing takeaway capacity from Alberta's land-locked oil sands projects.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2019-2024)
11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
24
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2013-2018)
24
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2019-2024)
24
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2019-2024)
31
Refining
35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2019-2024)
35
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2019-2024)
38
Gas Consumption
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2019-2024)
40
Trade - Oil
42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
45
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2013-2018)
46
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2019-2024)
47
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
48
Table: Major LNG Projects In Canada
52
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
54
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
54
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
54
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
55
Wide North America / Western Europe Upstream Gap To Remain
56
North America: Canada Losing Its Edge
56
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
57
Downstream: US Comes Out Top
59
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
59
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
62
Canada Upstream Index - Overview
62
Canada Upstream Index - Rewards
62
Canada Upstream Index - Risks
62
Canada Downstream Index - Overview
63
Market Overview
64
Canada Energy Market Overview
64
Overview/State Role
65
Licensing And Regulation
66
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
70
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
73
Oil Refineries
73
Table: Downstream Projects
73
Service Stations
77
Oil Pipelines
77
LNG Regasification Terminals
83
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
84
Gas Pipelines
90
Gas Service Stations
93
Competitive Landscape
94
Competitive Landscape Summary
94
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
96
Table: Key Upstream Players
96
Table: Key Downstream Players
97
Company Profile
98
Suncor
98
Shell Canada
103
Encana
110
Other Summaries
116
Regional Overview
140
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
140
Global Industry Overview
151
Global Energy Market Overview
151
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
151
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
154
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
155
Appendix
157
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
157
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
157
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
158
North America Regional Appendix
160
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
162
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
162
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
162
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
163
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
163
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
163
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
164
Canada - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
165
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
165
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
165
Canada - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
166
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
166
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
167
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
168
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
169
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018)
171
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024)
171
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018)
172
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024)
173
Glossary
174
Table: Glossary Of Terms
174
Methodology
176
Industry Forecast Methodology
176
Source
178
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
178
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
180
Table: Weighting
181

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.