Canada Oil & Gas Report

Published 05 January 2015

  • 175 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry has grown increasingly modest given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid lower oil prices. The greatest threats to these projects are the challenging project economics and regulatory headwinds that could hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production and LNG terminal development, weighing on total hydrocarbon output. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies revise capital expenditures in the coming years, with reserves likely to suffer as a result.

Headline Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018)
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,783.5 4,000.1 4,219.8 4,487.3 4,678.5 4,937.1 5,001.7
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,927.0 1,888.5 1,888.5 1,945.1 1,945.1 1,945.1 1,935.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,337.0 2,370.6 2,424.3 2,473.5 2,523.7 2,572.8 2,598.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 157.6 154.4 151.4 146.8 142.4 139.6 136.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 86.6 89.5 92.1 96.8 99.7 103.6 104.2
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • Canada's proven oil reserves are expected to trend lower from 173.2bn bbl at the beginning of 2014 to 170.82bn bbl in 2018 due to a slowdown in oil sands investment. However, we expect reserves to hold around this level thereafter, as a result of new liquids-rich shale developments.

  • Proven gas reserves will increase from 1.89tcm at the beginning of 2014 to a peak of 1.96tcm in 2018 as shale deposits are booked as reserves. Beginning in 2019, reserves are likely to experience steady declines to 2023 as a result of declining...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2018-2023)
11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
14
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
23
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2012-2017)
23
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2018-2023)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2012-2017)
26
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2018-2023)
26
Refining
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2012-2017)
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2018-2023)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* - Canada 2012-2017
32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* - Canada 2018-2023
32
Gas Consumption
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2012-2017)
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2018-2023)
34
Trade - Oil
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2012-2017)
39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2018-2023)
40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
41
Table: Proposed/Planned LNG Export Projects In Canada
45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
47
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Upstream: US Nearly On Par With Canada
48
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
51
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
53
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
53
Canada - Risk/Reward Ratings
57
Canada Upstream Rating - Overview
57
Canada Upstream Rating - Rewards
57
Canada Upstream Rating - Risks
57
Canada Downstream Rating - Overview
58
Market Overview
59
Canada Energy Market Overview
59
Overview/State Role
60
Licensing And Regulation
61
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
65
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
68
Oil Refineries
68
Table: Downstream Projects
68
Service Stations
72
Oil Pipelines
72
LNG Regasification Terminals
78
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
79
Gas Pipelines
85
Gas Service Stations
88
Competitive Landscape
89
Competitive Landscape Summary
89
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
91
Table: Key Upstream Players
91
Table: Key Downstream Players
92
Company Profile
93
Suncor
93
Shell Canada
99
Encana
105
Other Summaries
111
Regional Overview
133
Industry News
133
Global Industry Overview
142
Global Energy Market Overview
142
Appendix
148
North America Regional Appendix
148
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
148
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
148
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
149
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
149
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
149
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
150
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
150
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
150
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
151
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
151
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
151
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
152
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
153
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
153
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
154
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
154
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
155
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
155
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
156
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
156
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
157
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
157
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
158
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
158
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
159
Glossary
160
Table: Glossary Of Terms
160
Methodology
162
Industry Forecast Methodology
162
Source
164
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
164
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
166
Table: Weighting
167

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc