Canada Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Canada Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors within a low commodity price environment . The greatest threats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production beyond 2018 , much-needed midstream expansions and LNG terminal development. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies reduce capital expenditures .

Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, NEB, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,462.2 4,639.0 4,801.7 5,099.6 5,261.2 5,294.1 5,327.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,875.0 1,856.3 1,856.3 1,856.3 1,847.0 1,837.7 1,828.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,469.0 2,485.6 2,507.1 2,538.9 2,576.1 2,608.8 2,644.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 151.2 154.2 151.1 149.6 149.6 151.1 152.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 104.5 105.5 107.6 110.8 117.5 119.8 124.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Key developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • We have slightly downgraded our 2016 Canadian crude production forecast to account for unplanned outages in Q216. The wildfires which surrounded Fort McMurray pose a limited threat to the sector's continued growth through 2018 owing to a strong upstream project pipeline.

  • We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following given sustained weakness of commodity prices. This, combined with insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity, will join with the government's stronger environmental mandate to undermine proposed upstream and midstream developments.

  • Prime Minister Trudeau and the Albertan government's financial commitments will strengthen support for midstream projects in the province to service existing oil sands operations. However, under its new leadership, Alberta will boost its environmental mandate, undermining pre-FID upstream developments.

  • The proposed 50,000b/d expansion of Imperial Oil's Cold Lake bitumen project in March represents a unique opportunity for a more financially stable company to explore more efficient production methods. The extended life-time of this brownfield project supports its development but does not indicate a broader expansion of Canadian upstream capacity beyond 2017.

  • On April 7, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) issued two Calls for Bids in the Eastern Newfoundland and Jeanne d'Arc Regions under the Scheduled Land Tenure (SLT) Regime in the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Area. The bids cover a total of 16 parcels which encompass over 3.3mn hectares of offshore acreage. Bids are due on November 9.

  • The negative impact of low oil prices on fixed investment in Canada will persist in 2016. We forecast real GDP growth to accelerate from 1.2% in 2015 to 1.4% this year. Beyond 2016, however, we believe that further economic rebalancing and strong private consumption will see the economy return to 2.0% growth, supported by the rollout of a public infrastructure investment programme.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Canada - Key Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Oil Sands Commercial Breakeven Costs, USD/BBL
33
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019)
36
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025)
36
Upstream Production - Gas
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019)
41
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025)
41
Refining
42
Latest Updates
42
Structural Trends
42
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019)
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025)
45
Refined Fuels Consumption
46
Latest Trends
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
48
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
48
Gas Consumption
49
Latest Updates
49
Structural Trends
49
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
52
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
52
Trade - Oil
53
Crude Oil
53
Latest Updates
53
Structural Trends
53
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020)
57
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
57
Refined Fuels
57
Latest Updates
57
Structural Trends
57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
59
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
60
Latest Updates
60
Structural Trends
60
Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects
63
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
64
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
65
Industry Risk/Reward Index
66
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
66
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
66
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead
67
North America Open To Investment, At The Right Price
67
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe
68
Table: North America & Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
70
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead
70
Table: North America & Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index
72
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
73
Upstream Index
73
Downstream Index
74
Market Overview
75
Canada Energy Market Overview
75
State Role
76
Licensing And Regulation
77
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
81
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
84
Oil Refineries
84
Table: Downstream Projects
84
Service Stations
88
Oil Pipelines
88
LNG Regasification Terminals
94
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
95
Gas Pipelines
102
Gas Service Stations
104
Competitive Landscape
105
Competitive Landscape Summary
105
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
107
Table: Key Upstream Players
107
Table: Key Downstream Players
108
Company Profile
109
Suncor
109
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada
110
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
111
Encana
112
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada
113
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
113
Imperial Oil
115
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada
116
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
116
Regional Overview
117
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
117
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
127
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
128
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Source
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
134
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.