BMI View: We maintain o ur modest growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a low commodity price environment . The greatest threats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production beyond 2018 , much-needed midstream expansions and LNG terminal development.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, NEB, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||4,462.2||4,639.0||4,822.2||5,135.3||5,320.9||5,363.6||5,399.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||1,875.0||1,856.3||1,856.3||1,856.3||1,847.0||1,837.7||1,828.6|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||2,469.0||2,485.6||2,507.1||2,538.9||2,561.3||2,574.0||2,566.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||151.2||154.2||156.1||154.5||154.5||156.0||157.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||104.5||105.5||107.6||110.8||117.5||119.8||124.6|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
We maintain our Canadian crude production forecast this quarter. The wildfires which surrounded Fort McMurray posed a limited threat to the sector's continued growth, with capacity gains continuing through 2018 on the back of a strong upstream project pipeline.
We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following given sustained weakness of commodity prices. This, combined with insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity, will join with the government's stronger environmental mandate to undermine proposed upstream and midstream developments.
The negative impact of low oil prices on fixed investment in Canada will persist in 2017. We believe a continued recovery could be vulnerable to tighter credit conditions and efforts to cool the housing market. GDP growth will rise to 1.5% y-o-y, down from our previous estimate of 2.0% y-o-y.
Refined fuels consumption in Canada will peak before 2020 on the back of increased fuel efficiency and slowing growth in key sectors. Continued urbanisation will also limit demand as consumers turn toward mass transit and alternative modes of transport.
Prime Minister Trudeau is expected to decide on Enbridge's Northern Gateway (NGP) oil pipeline and Line 3 replacement by November 25, with a decision on Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain (TMP) expansion project due by December 19. Amid heightened popular opposition, we believe the administration will remain consistent with its stronger environmental focus, thereby ruling against larger, more controversial pipeline projects.
We therefore believe North American midstream operators will pursue expansion via consolidation amid sustained commodity price weakness and a surplus of planned takeaway capacity. This enables greater efficiencies and improved margins while avoiding the risks associated with developing new assets.
Royal Dutch Shell's divestment of its non-core acreage in British Columbia in October highlights the challenges faced by Canada's unconventional gas sector amid a continued deficit of takeaway capacity and export opportunities. A global glut of liquefied exports will maintain downward pressure on gas prices, supporting our downbeat outlook for Canada's LNG sector.
The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.