Canada Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Canada Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a low oil price environment . The greatest threats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production , midstream expansions and LNG terminal development. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies revise capital expenditures in the coming year .

Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,311.2 4,584.6 4,760.7 5,063.9 5,108.6 5,141.1 5,174.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,912.8 1,893.6 1,893.6 1,893.6 1,884.2 1,874.7 1,865.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,469.0 2,495.2 2,521.6 2,558.5 2,595.9 2,628.9 2,667.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 151.2 146.6 141.5 138.7 135.9 134.5 133.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 104.4 108.6 110.8 114.1 117.5 121.7 126.5
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The latest developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following the election victory for the Liberal Party in October. A low oil price outlook and insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity will combine with the government's strong environmental mandate to undermine upstream and midstream developments.

  • Prime Minister Trudeau and the Albertan government's financial commitments will strengthen support for midstream projects in the province to service existing oil sands operations. However, under its new leadership, Alberta will boost its environmental mandate, undermining pre-FID upstream developments.

  • The proposed 50,000b/d expansion of Imperial Oil's Cold Lake bitumen project in March represents a unique opportunity for a more financially stable company to explore more efficient production methods. The extended life-time of this brownfield project supports its development but does not indicate a broader expansion of Canadian upstream capacity beyond 2017.

  • The announced acquisition of Canadian Oil Sands by Suncor in January for USD2.9bn will increase efficiencies at the company's Syncrude joint venture. Consolidation among larger producers supports our view that continued financial stress will threaten Canada's competitive landscape in 2016.

  • The negative impact of low oil prices on fixed investment in Canada will persist in 2016. We forecast real GDP growth to accelerate from 1.2% in 2015 to 1.4% this year. Beyond 2016, however, we believe that further economic rebalancing and strong private consumption will see the economy return to 2.0% growth, supported by the rollout of a public infrastructure investment programme.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
14
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019)
30
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025)
30
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019)
34
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025)
35
Refining
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019)
39
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025)
39
Refined Fuels Consumption
40
Latest Trends
40
Structural Trends
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2014-2019)
42
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
42
Gas Consumption
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
45
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
45
Trade - Oil
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends:
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020)
50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
50
Latest Updates
50
Structural Trends
50
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
52
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
52
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
53
Latest Updates
53
Structural Trends
53
Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects
56
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
57
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
58
Industry Risk/Reward Index
59
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index
59
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
60
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead
60
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
63
Downstream: US Widens Lead
63
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
65
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
66
Canada Upstream Index
66
Canada Downstream Index
67
Market Overview
68
Canada Energy Market Overview
68
State Role
69
Licensing And Regulation
71
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
75
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
78
Oil Refineries
78
Table: Downstream Projects
78
Service Stations
82
Oil Pipelines
82
LNG Regasification Terminals
88
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
89
Gas Pipelines
96
Gas Service Stations
98
Competitive Landscape
99
Competitive Landscape Summary
99
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
101
Table: Key Upstream Players
101
Table: Key Downstream Players
102
Company Profile
103
Suncor
103
Shell Canada
109
Encana
116
Other Summaries
121
Regional Overview
145
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
145
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
156
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
157
Glossary
159
Table: Glossary Of Terms
159
Methodology
161
Industry Forecast Methodology
161
Source
163
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
163
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
165
Table: Weighting
166

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.