BMI View : Growth in the Canadian power sector will be driven by the implementation of a vast pipeline of hydropower projects, as well as political commitment to increasing the role of renewables and natural gas in the electricity mix. Weak growth in power consumption - compounded by the slump in oil prices - will limit renewables investment opportunities outside of public incentive schemes, but we see upside potential from ambitious renewables plans in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, IRENA, National Sources|
|Generation, Total, TWh||628.470||635.600||633.380||639.560||637.940||647.940||629.840|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||554.0||534.6||537.8||543.2||549.2||553.3||558.0|
|Capacity, Net, MW||135,475.1||140,103.6||141,532.7||143,920.4||144,837.0||147,114.1||146,364.6|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The government of Ontario is progressing in the partial privatisation process of public utility Hydro One. In April 2016, the government sold a second tranche of shares of the utility, bringing the total sold to 30%. According to the operation's manager, the sale of 60% of the company (the government's privatisation target) should be completed before the next provincial elections in 2018. The IPO for the company had been launched in November 2015.
Details on Ontario's climate change action plan were released in May. Ontario's government will reportedly spend CAD7bn between 2017 and 2021 in a number of initiatives intended to reduce CO 2 emissions in the province, with a focus on the transportation sector and buildings. A cap-and-trade system is part of the plan, which aims to cut emissions to 15% below 1990 levels by 2020, 37% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.
As part of its strategy to phase-out coal power generation by 2030 and boost renewables in the province, the government of Alberta is expected to release the schedule for the retirement of coal-fired power plants over the coming months. The Alberta Electric System Operator has submitted an implementation plan to the provincial government, and is planning to hold a first procurement auction before the end of 2016. We are waiting for more clarity on the government's plan - particularly in terms of the coal plants' retirement schedule - before including it in our forecast for the Canadian thermal and renewables power sector.
Investor interest in the renewables market of Alberta and Saskatchewan is growing. In June 2016, Siemens Canada's wind and renewables division said that they expect up to CAD50bn to be spent on renewables in the two provinces over the next 14 years. Moreover, it was reported in April that Canadian energy company Suncor Energy is planning to develop 240MW of solar projects in Alberta, divided between three projects expected to come online in 2018.
In March, Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator selected 16 renewables projects to participate in the first phase of its Large Renewable Procurement (LRP) programme. Moreover, in June, IESO announced the launch of the second phase of the LRP, through which it aims to contract up to 930MW of renewable energy projects distributed between wind, solar, hydropower and bioenergy. The government plans to start the request for qualification process for the projects by August 1 2016.
Recent developments in Canada's hydropower sector have reinforced our positive growth outlook for the segment. In June 2016, it was announced that the construction of the 1.1GW Site C hydropower plant has started. The project is owned by BC Hydro and has a reported value of CAD1.75bn. Moreover, in March 2016, BC Hydro completed the expansion of the Mica hydropower plant. The expansion project - worth a total of CAD714mn - increased the plant's capacity by 1,000MW.
The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).