BMI View : The implementation of a significant pipeline of hydropower projects, coupled with increasing investment into natural gas-fired and non-hydro renewable power, will drive growth in power capacity and generation in Canada over the coming decade. We expect the role of coal-fired and nuclear power in the electricity mix to decrease over our 10-year forecast period as a result of stricter emission regulations and the planned retirement and refurbishment of existing nuclear reactors.
Key T rends A nd D evelopments
We have revised up our forecast for hydropower capacity and generation in 2016. In June 2015, it was announced that Canada-based Innergex Renewable Energy has closed CAD197.2mn (USD159.7mn) financing for the Big Silver Creek run-of-river hydroelectric project in British Columbia. Manufacturers Life Insurance Company acted as agent and lead lender and Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec as lender for the non-recourse construction and term project financing. The plant - which is expected to start operating in late 2016 - will have installed capacity of 40.6MW, with average annual production estimated to reach 0.14TWh. As a result of this additional financial availability, we have included the project in our hydropower capacity forecast for 2016 - which we now expect to total approximately 79,251MW.
In August 2015, the Alberta Utilities Commission gave approval for the development of the 856MW Sundance 7 gas-fired power plant, a project whose value is estimated at USD1.4bn. The next stage in development of the project, Alberta Environment and Parks review, is currently under way. The project is expected to be completed in 2018; however, we have yet to include it in our forecast as a final investment decision on the project hasn't been reached yet.
This quarter we have upwardly revised our non-hydro power generation and capacity forecasts. We now expect total non-hydro renewables generation to grow by an average annual rate...
The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).