Canada Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Canada Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : The election of Justin Trudeau as Canada's prime m inister and the introduction of a strategy to curb carbon emissions in Alberta will strengthen Canada's shift away from coal-fired power and towards renewables and natural gas-fired power generation over the coming decade. Hydropower will remain the dominant technology in Canada's power mix through 2024, due to a vast pipeline of large-scale projects planned and under construction.

Headline Power Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 623.799 637.814 640.314 650.365 648.260 661.880 643.143
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 552.4 555.1 559.2 564.1 569.0 573.2 578.1
Capacity, Net, MW 135,425.1 139,804.8 141,427.6 143,997.8 144,877.7 147,614.6 147,137.3

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • In October 2015, TransAlta Corporation announced its decision to postpone the opening of its 856MW Sundance 7 power plant in Alberta from 2018 to 2020 or as late as 2022. The company attributed the decision to slowing demand and uncertainty over provincial environmental policies. We had not included this plant in our forecast as of last quarter, due to its preliminary stage of development, so the announcement did not impact our current forecast for gas-fired power.

  • In November 2015, the recently elected government of Alberta unveiled a plan to introduce a number of regulations discouraging coal-fired power generation and incentivising the deployment of renewable energy in the province. This development creates a downside risk to our outlook for decreasing coal-fired power generation in the country over the coming decade, which is currently informed with previous regulations for the sector.

  • In December 2015, Canada's government announced an agreement with utility Bruce Power over postponing the refurbishment of the Bruce nuclear power plant. The refurbishment of unit six will start in 2020 instead of 2016, while the life of other units will be extended prior to refurbishment. We have changed our forecast for nuclear capacity and generation in 2016 and beyond accordingly.

  • It was announced in December 2015 that BC Hydro has selected the Peace River Hydro Partners consortium as the preferred bidder for the main civil works construction of the Site C clean energy project in British Columbia. The consortium, which comprises Acciona Infrastructure Canada, Petrowest and Samsung C&T Canada, is reportedly expected to secure the eight-year contract. We forecast the 1.1GW project, which is estimated to cost nearly CAD8.3bn (USD6.23bn), to come online in 2024.

  • The new environmental strategy of the government of Alberta includes the plan to introduce incentives to have almost one-third of the province's power generated from renewables by 2030. While we will wait to see additional details on the strategy's implementation before including the development in our forecasts, this policy shift creates upside potential for renewables' capacity and generation in Canada.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Canada Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Canada Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
17
Table: Planned And Proposed New Reactors
23
Table: Completed Or Scheduled Hydropower Capacity Additions
25
Electricity Consumption
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
28
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
30
Industry Risk/Reward Index
33
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: NAWE Power RRI
37
Canada Power Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Market Overview
40
Key Policies And Market Structure
40
Regulation And Competition
40
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Structural Models
41
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Regulation
42
Sustainable Energy Policies
42
Pricing
44
Canada Power Projects Database
45
Table: Canada Power Projects Database
45
Competitive Landscape
66
BC Hydro
66
EPCOR
66
Hydro One
67
Maritime Electric
68
Ontario Power
68
Newfoundland Power
69
Nova Scotia Power
69
SaskPower
69
Enmax
70
Energie NB Power
70
ATCO
71
Regional Overview
72
NAWE Regional Overview
72
Glossary
79
Table: Glossary Of Terms
79
Methodology
80
Methodology And Sources
80
Industry Forecast Methodology
80
Sources
83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
83
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
85

The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).