Canada Power Report

Published 29 June 2015

  • 84 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Power Report

BMI View : We maintain our overall positive outlook for the Canadian power sector , based on Canada's robust macroeconomic trajectory, vast hydropower project pipeline and growing focus on natural gas-fired power and new transmission lines to export e xcess power to the US. While the renewabl es sector will continue growing in provinces which offer incentives to developers, coal-fired and nuclear generation will decrease as a result of stricter emission regulations and reactors being retired or refurbished.

In line with the mature state of the Canadian power market, we expect total generation in the country to expand by an annual average of 0.9% during our 10-year forecast period. This slow growth reflects a reduction in coal-fired generation for environmental reasons and the retirement and refurbishment of Canada's aging nuclear reactors. However, those reductions will be more than offset by growth in hydropower, natural gas-fired and renewables generation. As a result, we forecast shifts in the country's power generation mix, with the share of coal and nuclear to decrease and renewables and natural gas taking up the slack.

Our Country Risk team expects Canada's real GDP to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8% between 2015 and 2024, a marginal deterioration compared to last quarter's forecast (1.9%) due to the continued negative impact of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy - namely a sharp drop in investment and widespread lay-offs in Canada's extractive sector. This economic slowdown accounts for our downward revision of our forecast for average annual power consumption over the coming decade, from 0.86% to 0.79%.

Key T rends A nd D evelopments

Progress in the development of multiple power transmission lines between Canada and the US creates potential for electricity trade between the two countries to see sizeable growth over the coming years. On May 14, electric utility Minnesota Power obtained approval from the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Canada Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Canada Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
17
Table: PLANNED AND PROPOSED NEW REACTORS
25
Table: Completed Or Scheduled Hydropower Capacity Additions (2014-2023)
27
Electricity Consumption
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
30
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
32
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2013-2018)
32
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2019-2024)
32
Industry Risk/Reward Index
34
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
37
Power Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
39
Market Overview
40
Key Policies And Market Structure
40
Regulation And Competition
40
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Structural Models
41
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Regulation
42
Sustainable Energy Policies
42
Pricing
45
Canada Power Projects Database
46
Table: Major Projects - Power
46
Competitive Landscape
55
BC Hydro
55
EPCOR
56
Hydro One
56
Maritime Electric
57
Ontario Power
57
Newfoundland Power
58
Nova Scotia Power
58
SaskPower
58
Enmax
59
Energie NB Power
59
ATCO
59
Regional Overview
61
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
61
Table: Proposed Capacity Mechanisms
65
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Terms
68
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
72
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
74

The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc