BMI View : The election of Justin Trudeau as Canada's prime m inister and the introduction of a strategy to curb carbon emissions in Alberta will strengthen Canada's shift away from coal-fired power and towards renewables and natural gas-fired power generation over the coming decade. Hydropower will remain the dominant technology in Canada's power mix through 2024, due to a vast pipeline of large-scale projects planned and under construction.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||623.799||637.814||640.314||650.365||648.260||661.880||643.143|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||552.4||555.1||559.2||564.1||569.0||573.2||578.1|
|Capacity, Net, MW||135,425.1||139,804.8||141,427.6||143,997.8||144,877.7||147,614.6||147,137.3|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In October 2015, TransAlta Corporation announced its decision to postpone the opening of its 856MW Sundance 7 power plant in Alberta from 2018 to 2020 or as late as 2022. The company attributed the decision to slowing demand and uncertainty over provincial environmental policies. We had not included this plant in our forecast as of last quarter, due to its preliminary stage of development, so the announcement did not impact our current forecast for gas-fired power.
In November 2015, the recently elected government of Alberta unveiled a plan to introduce a number of regulations discouraging coal-fired power generation and incentivising the deployment of renewable energy in the province. This development creates a downside risk to our outlook for decreasing coal-fired power generation in the country over the coming decade, which is currently informed with previous regulations for the sector.
In December 2015, Canada's government announced an agreement with utility Bruce Power over postponing the refurbishment of the Bruce nuclear power plant. The refurbishment of unit six will start in 2020 instead of 2016, while the life of other units will be extended prior to refurbishment. We have changed our forecast for nuclear capacity and generation in 2016 and beyond accordingly.
It was announced in December 2015 that BC Hydro has selected the Peace River Hydro Partners consortium as the preferred bidder for the main civil works construction of the Site C clean energy project in British Columbia. The consortium, which comprises Acciona Infrastructure Canada, Petrowest and Samsung C&T Canada, is reportedly expected to secure the eight-year contract. We forecast the 1.1GW project, which is estimated to cost nearly CAD8.3bn (USD6.23bn), to come online in 2024.
The new environmental strategy of the government of Alberta includes the plan to introduce incentives to have almost one-third of the province's power generated from renewables by 2030. While we will wait to see additional details on the strategy's implementation before including the development in our forecasts, this policy shift creates upside potential for renewables' capacity and generation in Canada.
The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).