BMI View : Over the coming decade, t he main shifts within Canada's power sector will be driven by the political goal of reducing the country's dependency on coal-fired power and boost the role of natural gas and renewable energy in the power mix - with low growth in power consumption reducing procurement opportunities outside of government-mandated schemes. Contributing to the well supplied status of the Candian power market, h ydropower will remain the dominant technology in the power mix through to 202 5 , due to a vast pipeline of large-scale projects planned and under construction.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: StatCan, National Sources, EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||628.407||635.340||634.219||639.976||638.136||648.089||629.831|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||553.6||534.2||538.3||543.6||549.6||553.7||558.5|
|Capacity, Net, MW||135,425.1||139,804.3||141,232.7||143,359.5||144,074.1||146,330.2||145,480.6|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Stronger emphasis on green energy policies at a provincial and national level, as well as a slowdown in power consumption growth amid warm weather and weaker economic activity, have prompted us to downgrade our forecasts for coal and natural gas-fired power generation in Canada over the next 10-years. We expect coal-fired power to fall at a faster rate than we previously forecast - in line with existing regulations - while natural gas power will grow less steeply amid smaller power needs. As a case in point, in October 2015 TransAlta Corporation announced it will postpone the opening of its 856MW Sundance 7 gas-fired power plant in Alberta from 2018 to 2020 or as late as 2022, due to slowing demand and uncertainty over provincial environmental policies.
In November 2015, the newly elected government of Alberta and Saskatchewan's main power generator SaskPower both unveiled plans to reduce their reliance on coal-fired power generation and boost the role of renewables and natural gas in their provinces' power mix. In the case of Alberta, the government plans to completely phase-out coal fired power generation by 2030 (as opposed to shutting down 12 out of 18 of the province's existing coal power fleet, as per current federal regulations). This development creates a downside risk to our forecast for decreasing coal-fired power generation in the country over the coming decade, which is currently based on existing regulations for the sector.
In December 2015, Canada's government announced an agreement with utility Bruce Power over postponing the refurbishment of the Bruce nuclear power plant. The refurbishment of unit six will start in 2020 instead of 2016, while the life of other units will be extended prior to refurbishment. We have changed our forecast for nuclear capacity and generation in 2016 and beyond accordingly.
In February 2016, the decision on whether to build a nuclear waste storage facility in Kincardine, Ontario, was delayed indefinitely by the federal minister for the environment and climate change Catherine McKenna. The minister based this decision on the need for additional information to be gathered, and has given Ontario Power Generation, the utility responsible for the project, until April 18 2016 to submit more information.
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been working with the premiers of Canada's provinces on the development of a new formal national energy strategy. Such strategy is expected to include the development of new oil pipelines, attracting foreign investment in the hydrocarbon sector and scaling up efforts against climate change. The latter point will entail greater federal spending on resilience measures and infrastructure, coupled with encouraging the implementation of policies spurring growth in renewables. Among these, the federal government has proposed the introduction of a federal carbon tax, but so far the measure has not met the agreement of all Canadian provinces' prime ministers.
The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).