BMI View : Growth in the Canadian power sector will be driven by the implementation of a vast pipeline of hydropower projects, as well as political commitment to increasing the role of renewables and natural gas in the electricity mix. Weak growth in power consumption and overcapacity in most Canadian provinces, coupled with the high costs of developing large hydropower plants, represent the main downside risks to our power forecasts, while renewables plans in Alberta and Saskatchewan create upside potential .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, IRENA, national sources|
|Generation, Total, TWh||628.470||635.600||633.380||639.560||637.940||647.940||629.840|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||554.0||534.6||537.8||543.2||549.2||553.3||558.0|
|Capacity, Net, MW||135,475||140,104||141,533||143,920||144,837||147,114||146,365|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In September, the Albertan government announced a firm target of 30% of electricity to be sourced from renewables by 2030, as part of its Climate Leadership plan. However, the government did not release details on how this goal will be achieved in practice, and has yet to announce a timeline for the retirement of the province's coal-fired power plants in order to make room for new renewables capacity. In light of these factors, we are waiting for more clarity on the government's plan before including it in our forecasts for the Canadian thermal and renewables power sector. The Alberta Electric System Operator has submitted a plan to the provincial government for the implementation of the Climate Leadership plan, and has announced it plans to hold a first procurement auction before the end of 2016.
Opposition to the development of the 1.1GW Site C hydropower project in British Columbia is growing, on the basis that the CAD8.8bn complex would have an excessively disruptive impact on the environment and impose high costs to taxpayers despite flat power consumption growth. Since the project started construction in June 2016, the plant is currently included in our forecasts; nevertheless, we highlight that this opposition poses a downside risk to our long-term forecasts.
The government of Ontario is progressing in the partial privatisation process of public utility Hydro One. In April 2016, the government sold a second tranche of shares of the utility, bringing the total sold to 30%. According to the operation's manager, the sale of 60% of the company (the government's privatisation target) should be completed before the next provincial elections in 2018. We note that in September 2016 the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), Ontario's largest union, sued the government over the privatisation. The union's ultimate goal is reportedly stopping the government from selling any more shares of Hydro One. At the time of writing, there is limited visibility on whether CUPE's move will have an impact on the government's privatisation target.
In June, Siemens Canada's wind and renewables division said that they expect up to CAD50.0bn to be spent on renewables in the two provinces of Alberta and Saskatechewan over the next 14 years. Moreover, it was reported in April that Canadian energy company Suncor Energy is planning to develop 240MW of solar projects in Alberta, divided between three projects expected to come online in 2018.
Recent developments in Canada's hydropower industry have confirmed our growth forecasts for the sector in 2016. In August 2016, the 62MW Jimmie Creek hydropower plant entered commercial operations. The project, developed by Alterra Power Corp., has a 40-year long power purchase agreement (PPA) with BC Hydro.
The Canada Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).