Caribbean Food & Drink Report

Published 26 January 2015

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Caribbean Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers are picking up, and growth is stronger in key western states such as the US. That said, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted which limits general investment. We believe that general food consumption growth will be strongest in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. In the Dominican Republic's case, food consumption is coming off of a very low base. Ongoing recession in Puerto Rico, one of the region's most sophisticated markets, is likely to continue in 2015.

Headline Industry Data

Forecast 201 5 food consumption growth (local currency):

  • Bahamas: +1.1%

  • Barbados: +0.7%

  • Dominican Republic: +5.9%

  • Jamaica: +7.2%

  • Puerto Rico: +3.6%

  • Trinidad & Tobago: +3.1%

Forecast 201 5 real GDP growth (local currency):

  • Bahamas: +1.3%

  • Barbados: +0.7%

  • Dominican Republic: +5.7%

  • Jamaica: +1.9%

  • Puerto Rico: -1.0%

  • Trinidad & Tobago: +3.0%

Forecast food consumption compound annual growth rate 201 4 to 201 9 (local currency):

  • Bahamas: +1.5%

  • Barbados: +1.5%

  • Dominican Republic: +6.3%

  • Jamaica: +6.3%

  • Puerto Rico: +4.0%

  • Trinidad & Tobago: +3.5%

Dominican Republic The Regional Outperformer
Select Countries - Food Consumption Growth (% chg y-o-y in USD)

Key Company Trends

Heineken To Invest USD100mn In Haiti Production Plant: Netherlands-based brewer Heineken announced in April 2014 that it will invest USD100mn in its Prestige lager producing production plant at Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The new investment involves construction of a second 24,300 square foot production line started in December 2013, in the same facility, utilising around one-fifth of the investment. The new production line will enable the company to double the output for Prestige and other beverages, along with launching a 16-ounce bottle of Prestige. The remaining amount will be invested to further boost...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Food
10
Drink
12
Mass Grocery Retail
14
Industry Forecast
16
Consumer Outlook
16
Food
18
Food Consumption
18
Table: Caribbean - Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts
20
Table: Caribbean - Meat & Dairy - Historical Data & Forecasts
21
Drink
25
Alcoholic Drinks
25
Table: Caribbean - Beer - Historical Data & Forecasts
26
Table: Caribbean - Spirits - Historical Data & Forecasts
26
Soft Drinks
27
Table: Caribbean - Soft Drinks - Historical Data & Forecasts
27
Mass Grocery Retail
29
Bahamas
29
Barbados
30
Dominican Republic
31
Jamaica
32
Puerto Rico
33
Trinidad & Tobago
34
Table: Caribbean - Mass Grocery Retail Sales (2011-2018)
34
Trade
36
Table: Caribbean Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (USDmn)
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
38
Barbados
38
Economic Analysis
41
Table: Economic Activity (Trinidad & Tobago 2009-2018)
44
Economic Analysis
44
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Dominican Republic 2011-2018)
47
Economic Analysis
47
Economic Analysis
50
Table: Puerto Rico - Selected Sector-Specific Indicators
54
Industry Risk Reward Index
55
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
55
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q115
56
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Index Q115 (scores out of 10)
59
Market Overview
61
Food
61
Drink
63
Mass Grocery Retail
65
Industry Trends And Developments
66
Food
66
Key Industry Trends And Developments
66
Drink
68
Key Industry Trends And Developments
68
Competitive Landscape
78
Table: Key Players In The Caribbean Food Market
78
Table: Key Players In The Caribbean Drinks Market
79
Table: Key Players In The Caribbean Mass Grocery Retail Market
81
Company Profile
82
Seprod (Jamaica)
82
Canco Ltd (Jamaica)
84
Jamaica Producers Group (Jamaica)
86
Jamaica Broilers Group (Jamaica)
88
Wisynico Group (Jamaica)
91
D&G/Red Stripe (Jamaica)
93
Salada Foods (Jamaica)
95
Cervecer-a Nacional Dominicana (Dominican Republic)
97
Angostura (Trinidad & Tobago)
99
Walmart (Puerto Rico)
102
Supermercados Nacional (Dominican Republic)
104
Global Industry Overview
106
Table: DOLLAR GENERAL AND FAMILY DOLLAR HISTORIC QUARTERLY SAME-STORE SALES GROWTH (% CHANGE Y-O-Y)
110
Table: SELECT US BEVERAGE COMPANIES - HISTORIC EVA SPREAD
115
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
116
Demographic Forecast
118
Bahamas
118
Table: Bahamas' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
119
Table: Bahamas' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
120
Table: Bahamas' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
121
Table: Bahamas' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
121
Barbados
122
Table: Barbados' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
123
Table: Barbados' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
124
Table: Barbados' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
125
Table: Barbados' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
125
Dominican Republic
126
Table: The Dominican Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: The Dominican Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: The Dominican Republic's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: The Dominican Republic's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Jamaica
130
Table: Jamaica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
131
Table: Jamaica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
132
Table: Jamaica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
133
Table: Jamaica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
133
Puerto Rico
134
Table: Puerto Rico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
135
Table: Puerto Rico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
136
Table: Puerto Rico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
137
Table: Puerto Rico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
137
Trinidad & Tobago
138
Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
139
Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
140
Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
141
Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
141
Glossary
142
Food & Drink
142
Mass Grocery Retail
142
Methodology
144
Industry Forecast Methodology
144
Sector-Specific Methodology
145
Sources
145
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
146
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
147
Table: Weighting
148

The Caribbean Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Caribbean Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Barbados, Bahamas, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Barbados, Bahamas, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Barbadian, Bahamian, Jamaican, Trinidadian, Dominican, Puerto Rican food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Barbados, Bahamas, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc