Central Africa Mining Report

Published 20 July 2015

  • 79 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Central Africa Mining Report

BMI View: Central Africa is starting to leverage its considerable mineral wealth as mining activity expands across the region, in countries such as the DRC, Congo-Brazzaville and Cameroon. The region's considerable and largely untapped deposits and high grades are an attractive proposition for international mining group, particularly as other locations suffer falling grades and higher operating costs. We see significant potential for growth in the extraction of copper, gold, iron ore and other minerals, however, political risks and a lack of adequate infrastructure continue to present considerable challenges to operators in the region.

Striking While the Iron (Or Copper) Is Hot
DRC - Gold And Copper Output
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI Calculation, USGS

A New Stage For Metals Production

As is the case throughout much of Sub-Saharan Africa, much of the mining sector in Central Africa is at an embryonic stage of development. We highlight the region's fledgling iron ore sector which is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Congo-Brazzaville and Cameroon. The high-quality grades and considerable reserves of these countries provide an advantage to miners willing to overlook the sizeable political risks and infrastructure constraints of these countries, particularly given the current low-price environment for iron ore and other commodities. While much of the early investment into these markets has come from Western investors, many of these hailing from Australia, the UK and North America, there is growing interest from Asian companies, including those from China and South Korea, as they look to secure long-term access to iron ore supplies.

Besides iron ore, we note significant development in the gold and copper mining sub-sectors, both of which centre predominantly on the DRC. Again, the growth of these industries will depend on the ability of miners to overcome considerable infrastructure constraints as well as high levels of...

BMI Industry View
7
A New Stage For Metals Production
8
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Congo -DRC Conflict Minerals And The Dodd-Frank Act - Crib Sheet
11
Core View: Conflict Mineral Regulations Pose Minimal Risk To Sector
11
What Are Conflict Minerals-
12
What Does The Dodd-Frank Act Stipulate Regarding Conflict Minerals-
13
Which Companies Are Affected By The Act-
13
What Is The Aim Of The US Government In Implementing This-
13
Are These Efforts Likely To Succeed-
14
Would A Significant Crackdown On Conflict Mineral Exports Harm The DRC's Economy-
14
Congo - Gold: DRC Bucking Global Slowdown
15
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Congo (DRC) 2012-2019)
17
Copper: Production Growth Steady Despite Risks
18
Table: DRC - Copper Projects
20
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Congo (DRC) 2011-2019)
22
Congo Iron Ore: Low-Price Environment May Undermine Growth
23
Table: Largest Iron Ore Projects
25
China & Infrastructure Present Risks
25
Iron Ore: Cameroon To Take Centre Stage
27
Table: Cameroon - Key Mining Projects
29
Infrastructure Investment Essential
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Africa: Headwinds To Slow Growth
31
Key Takeaways:
31
Latest Revisions:
32
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
33
Regulatory Development
34
Congo & Cameroon: Uncertainty, But Signs Of Promise
34
Higher Taxes Round The Corner
35
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook
35
Commodities Forecast
37
Commodity Strategy
37
Ferrous Metals
37
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016
37
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017
39
Non-Ferrous Metals
42
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally
42
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
44
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
45
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
46
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
47
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Company Profile
52
Global Company Strategy - Randgold Resources - Q4 2015
52
Latest Financial Results
56
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data
57
Global Company Strategy - MMG Limited - Q3 2015
58
Table: MMG Ltd - Supply Chain Analysis
62
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data
63
Regional Overview
64
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes
64
Key Themes
64
SSA Gold: Stagnation, But DRC To Shine Bright
64
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth
65
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth
66
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
67
Global Industry Overview
69
Global - Mining 2015 Key Themes Revisited
69
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015
69
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline
69
Theme: US Dollar Strength
70
Iron Ore Consolidation & Majors Share To Increase
71
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue
72
2015's Standouts
73
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sources
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
78

The Central Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Central Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep..

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep. to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep.'s mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep..
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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