BMI View: Central America 's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 20 19/ 20 . Along the way , the different sectors of the market will be forced to fight against headwinds that will directly impact output growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations , as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand will outstrip supply in the livestock and grains sector s over the next five years . Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of La Nin a (which has a 50-75% chance of appearing in H216 and lingering into H117) on food security in the region.
We expect coffee production in the key producer nation of Guatemala for 2015/16 to reach 3.32mn 60kg bags. As the effects of roya have eased and regional prices remain elevated, output will accelerate across the region to 2019/20.
We see demand for corn in Guatemala reaching a level of 2.6mn tonnes in 2016 and 2.7mn tonnes in 2017.
We see pork output in Panama reaching 35,500 tonnes by 2020 and consumption reaching 59,100 tonnes by the same date. These figures have been revised upwards thanks to an increase in US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data for pork consumption and production in Panama for 2015, which shifted our views for the subsequent years in the local livestock sector.
Our forecast for sugar output in 2015/16 in the key producer nation of Guatemala is 2.97mn tonnes. By 2020 output will reach a level of 3.13mn tonnes.
2016 real GDP growth (regional average): 3.8% (down from 3.9% in 2015)
2016 consumer price inflation (regional average): 2.2% (up from 1.7% in 2015)
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast sugar prices to average higher for the first time in five years in 2016 (averaging USc16.00/lb), prompting production to recover in 2016/17. Should prices undershoot our forecasts, we would lower our output expectations for Central America.
Global coffee prices are strongly linked to the fortunes of the Brazilian real, which has endured volatility over recent months. The fortunes of the currency have improved of late, providing support for prices in 2016. Beyond this year, we expect coffee prices to trade sideways to slightly higher as the global market will register small surpluses, but Latin American currencies will average slightly higher from current levels against the US dollar. Since our last quarterly update, we have upgraded our long-term coffee price forecasts, and continue to expect prices to average slightly higher over our forecast period to 2020. Coffee prices will average USc125/lb in 2016, as the global market will return to surplus in 2016/17 and a depreciating real will eventually encourage exports.
Beyond 2016/17, we expect the coffee market to register generally small surpluses, but forecast the Brazilian currency to stabilise from its recent volatile trend and eventually strengthen. The real's tight relationship with coffee prices means that we expect prices to average slightly higher than 2016 levels. Our price forecasts out to 2020 remain slightly below consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, but match the price trajectory implied by the futures curve, which is currently in moderate contango.
The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.