BMI View: Coffee production in the Central America region will remain at risk over the next few years as the nature of subsistence farming will limit investment into safeguards against diseases such as coffee rust (roya). Countries in Central America are generally dependent on corn imports and we expect the corn production deficit to widen over our forecast period. Strength in the US dollar over this time frame will hurt the capital accounts of the region's countries. We believe the region's sugar industry will post strong growth over the coming years despite low international prices.
|Honduras Agribusiness To Outperform|
|Select Countries - Agribusiness Market Value (USDmn)|
|e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: FAO, BMI|
Coffee production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 36.61% (down from 38.3% in our last quarterly update) to 15.9mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, though growth will be high over our period due to the base effects caused by these factors. We see more potential for the sector in the long term due to government support schemes.
Sugar production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 7.75% (down from 9.1% in our last quarterly update) to 6.0mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2018/19. Development of exports presents upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.
2015 real GDP growth: 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). A moderate rise from 3.1% in 2014. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.4% between 2015 and 2019.
Consumer price inflation: 4.6% y-o-y in 2015. An increase from 4.1% in 2014. Inflation is predicted to average 4.6% between 2015 and 2019.
Although the worst effects of the roya disease are over for now, we believe that coffee output will likely remain volatile in the coming years, as roya will remain an issue in the region. We are more optimistic on production in the 2015/16, as...
The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.