Central America Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Central America Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We believe that Central America 's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 2019. Along the way , the different sectors of the market will be forced to grapple with an array of headwinds that will directly impact output growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations , as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, we expect consumption output to outstrip supply in the livestock sector. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of El Nino on food security in the region.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Coffee production growth 2013/15 to 2018/19: 35.6% to 15.9mn 60kg bags. As the effects of roya have eased and regional prices remain elevated, output will accelerate. We expect output in the region to increase over our forecast period to 2019.

  • 2015 real GDP g rowth (regional average): 3.7 % (unchanged from our last quarterly update)

  • 2015 consumer price inflation ( regional average ): 2.3 % (down from 4.0% in 2014).

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

We have revised up our forecast for beef production in Guatemala from 2014/15 through to the end of our forecast period in 2018/19 thanks in part due to an increase in USDA historical data from 2012/13 onwards. We now forecast output to reach 100,000 tonnes by 2018/19. Similarly, we have revised upwards our forecast for beef consumption through to 2019 to reach 104,900 tonnes, again in part due to an upwards revision in US Department of Agriculture historical data.

Production and consumption of corn in Guatemala has been revised upwards from our last quarterly update, and is now forecast to accelerate to 2018/19, reaching levels of 1.8mn tonnes and 2.8mn tonnes respectively.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Livestock Outlook
11
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
12
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
12
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
14
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
15
Grains Outlook
16
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
17
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
20
Coffee Outlook
21
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
22
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
24
Sugar Outlook
26
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
26
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
29
Commodities Price Analysis
31
Global Commodities Strategy
31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
32
Upstream Analysis
34
Americas GM Outlook
34
Americas Machinery Outlook
40
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
43
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
47
Downstream Analysis
52
Food
52
Food Consumption
52
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
53
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
53
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
54
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
54
Confectionery
54
Meat
55
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
56
Jams & Jellies
57
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
57
Pasta
58
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
59
Prepared Fish
60
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
60
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
61
Oils & Fats
62
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
62
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
64
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
65
Dairy
65
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
67
Regional Overview
70
Demographic Forecast
76
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025)
77
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025)
77
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025)
78
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025)
78
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025)
79
Demographic Outlook
81
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
82
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
82
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
83
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
83
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
84
Demographic Outlook
86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025)
87
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025)
87
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025)
89
Demographic Outlook
91
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025)
92
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025)
92
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025)
94
Demographic Forecast
96
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
97
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
97
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
98
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
98
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
99
Demographic Forecast
101
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025)
102
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025)
102
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025)
104
Demographic Outlook
106
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025)
107
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025)
107
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025)
108
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025)
108
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025)
109
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112

The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.