BMI View: Central America 's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 20 19/ 20 . Along the way , the different sectors of the market will be forced to fight against headwinds that will directly impact output growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations , as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand growth will outstrip supply growth in the livestock and grains sector s over the next five years . Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of La Nin a (which has a 50-75% chance of appearing during the remainder of H216 and lingering into H117) on food security in the region.
We have revised downwards our forecasts for both beef production and consumption in Guatemala for 2016 and for each full-year period through to 2020. We now see production closing 2016 at 75,000 tonnes (down by 6% y-o-y), before remaining flat through our forecast period and remaining at a level of 75,000 tonnes in 2020. In addition, we see consumption finishing 2016 at a level of 91,000 tonnes (flat y-o-y), and demand reaching a level of 103,000 tonnes by 2010 - an average increase of 3.0% across the forecast period.
Honduras has bucked the trend since our last quarterly update and has been the only country in the region for which we upgraded our forecasts for coffee production and consumption in 2016 and for each full-year period through to 2020. We now see output reaching 5.7mn 60kg bags in 2016 before accelerating by an annual average of 6.8%, to close 2020 at a level of 7.1mn 60kg bags. Similarly, we now expect the level of coffee consumption in the country to reach 360,000 60kg bags in 2016 and 391,000 60kg bags in 2020, following an average annual increase on demand of 4.4%.
Since our last quarterly update, we have revised downwards our forecasts for corn production in Costa Rica for 2017 and for each full-year period through to the end of our forecast period in 2020. We now see corn output reaching 18,000 tonnes in 2017 before averaging 1.8% growth across the forecast period to reach a level of 19,500 tonnes in 2020. In contrast, we have revised upwards our forecasts for corn consumption in Costa Rica in 2017 and for each full-year period through to 2020. We now see demand reaching 850,000 tonnes in 2017 before accelerating by a yearly average of 2.8% across the forecast period to now close 2020 at a level of 902,000 tonnes.
Nicaragua remains the fastest growing producer across the region for the second consecutive quarter with an annual average growth rate of 3.2% across our forecast period to 2020, although this has been revised marginally downwards from 3.5% in our last quarterly update. We are now forecast output to reach a level of 662,000 tonnes in 2016 and 831,000 tonnes in 2020.
2016 real GDP growth (regional average): 2.9% (down from 3.9% in 2015)
2016 consumer price inflation (regional average): 2.2% (up from 1.7% in 2015)
The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.