BMI View: We believe that Central America 's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 20 20 . Along the way , the different sectors of the market will be forced to grapple with an array of headwinds that will directly impact output growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations , as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, we expect consumption output to outstrip supply in the livestock sector. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of El Nino on food security in the region.
Key BMI Forecasts
We have revised downwards our forecast for coffee output in the key producer nation of Guatemala for 2015/16. We now expect production to reach 3.32mn 60kg bags
We have revised upwards our forecast for sugar output in 2015/16 in the key producer nation of Guatemala, to 2.97mn tonnes. Production growth will rise, predominantly due to increasing yields, owing to the adoption of more productive sugarcane varieties, as well as better pest control and irrigation.
As the effects of roya have eased and regional prices remain elevated, output will accelerate. We expect output in the region to increase over our forecast period to 2020.
2016 real GDP growth (regional average): 3.6%
2016 consumer price inflation (regional average): 1.8%
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Sugar prices will remain supported around current levels in H116 and trade within the USc12.00-15.00/lb range, as the market is transitioning into deficit in the ongoing 2015/16 season. As such, prices will average higher for the first time in five years in 2016 at USc14.50/lb (compared with USc13.12/lb in 2015) but will remain below the levels seen in 2011-2014. Production will recover in 2016/17 and prices will rise only modestly in 2017.
Beef output in the key producer nation of Nicaragua remains unchanged from our last quarterly update with production forecasted to reach 120,000 tonnes in 2015/16 and tally 126,000 tonnes by the end of our forecast period to 2019/20.
The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.