Central America Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Central America Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We believe that Central America 's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 20 20 . Along the way , the different sectors of the market will be forced to grapple with an array of headwinds that will directly impact output growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations , as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, we expect consumption output to outstrip supply in the livestock sector. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of El Nino on food security in the region.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • We have revised downwards our forecast for coffee output in the key producer nation of Guatemala for 2015/16. We now expect production to reach 3.32mn 60kg bags

  • We have revised upwards our forecast for sugar output in 2015/16 in the key producer nation of Guatemala, to 2.97mn tonnes. Production growth will rise, predominantly due to increasing yields, owing to the adoption of more productive sugarcane varieties, as well as better pest control and irrigation.

  • As the effects of roya have eased and regional prices remain elevated, output will accelerate. We expect output in the region to increase over our forecast period to 2020.

  • 2016 real GDP growth (regional average): 3.6%

  • 2016 consumer price inflation (regional average): 1.8%

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

Sugar prices will remain supported around current levels in H116 and trade within the USc12.00-15.00/lb range, as the market is transitioning into deficit in the ongoing 2015/16 season. As such, prices will average higher for the first time in five years in 2016 at USc14.50/lb (compared with USc13.12/lb in 2015) but will remain below the levels seen in 2011-2014. Production will recover in 2016/17 and prices will rise only modestly in 2017.

Beef output in the key producer nation of Nicaragua remains unchanged from our last quarterly update with production forecasted to reach 120,000 tonnes in 2015/16 and tally 126,000 tonnes by the end of our forecast period to 2019/20.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Agribusiness
8
Industry Forecast
10
Livestock Outlook
10
Table: Central America - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
11
Table: Risks To Outlook
11
Table: Selected Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
13
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
13
Grains Outlook
14
Table: Central America - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
14
Table: Risks To Outlook
15
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
16
Coffee Outlook
17
Table: Central America - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
17
Table: Risks To Outlook
18
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
19
Sugar Outlook
20
Table: Central America - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
20
Table: Risks To Outlook
21
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
22
Commodities Price Analysis
23
Global Commodities Strategy
23
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
23
Upstream Analysis
25
Americas Machinery Outlook
25
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
28
Americas GM Outlook
32
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
37
Downstream Analysis
43
Food
43
Food Consumption
43
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators
44
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators
44
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators
45
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators
45
Confectionery
45
Meat
46
Jams & Jellies
46
Table: El Salvador - Jam & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade
46
Pasta
47
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade
47
Prepared Fish
48
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade
48
Table: El Salvador - FIsh Volume Sales, Production & Trade
49
Oils & Fats
50
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Sales, Production & Trade
50
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Sales, Production & Trade
51
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade
51
Dairy
52
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade
53
Regional Overview
55
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025)
62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025)
62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025)
64
Demographic Outlook
66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
67
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
68
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
69
Demographic Outlook
71
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025)
72
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025)
72
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025)
73
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025)
73
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025)
74
Demographic Outlook
76
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025)
77
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025)
77
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025)
78
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025)
78
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025)
79
Demographic Forecast
81
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
82
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
82
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
83
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
83
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
84
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025)
87
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025)
87
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025)
88
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025)
89
Demographic Outlook
90
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025)
92
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025)
92
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025)
94
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Sector-Specific Methodology
97

The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.