Central America Agribusiness Report

Published 02 July 2015

  • 140 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Central America Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Coffee production in the Central America region will remain at risk over the next few years as the nature of subsistence farming will limit investment into safeguards against diseases such as coffee rust (roya). Countries in Central America are generally dependent on corn imports and we expect the corn production deficit to widen over our forecast period. Strength in the US dollar over this time frame will hurt the capital accounts of the region's countries. We believe the region's sugar industry will post strong growth over the coming years despite low international prices.

Honduras Agribusiness To Outperform
Select Countries - Agribusiness Market Value (USDmn)
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Coffee production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 38.3% to 15.8mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, though growth will be high over our period due to the base effects caused by these factors. We see more potential for the sector in the long term due to government support schemes.

  • Sugar product ion growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 9.1% to 6.0 mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2018/19. Development of exports presents upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). A moderate rise from 3.1% in 2014. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.4% between 2015 and 2019.

  • Consumer price inflation: 4.6% y-o-y in 2015. An increase from 4.1% in 2014. Inflation is predicted to average 4.6% between 2015 and 2019.

Industry Outlook

Although the worst effects of the roya disease are over for now, we believe that coffee output will likely remain volatile in the coming years, as roya will remain an issue in the region. We are more optimistic on production in the 2015/16, as the effects of roya have eased and regional prices remain elevated. However, export...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Livestock Outlook
11
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
12
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
12
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
14
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
15
Grains Outlook
16
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
17
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
20
Coffee Outlook
21
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
22
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
24
Sugar Outlook
26
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
26
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
29
Commodities Price Analysis
31
Monthly Softs Strategy
31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
40
Monthly Grains Strategy
41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
48
Upstream Analysis
49
Americas GM Outlook
49
Americas Machinery Outlook
55
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
58
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
63
Downstream Analysis
69
Food
69
Food Consumption
69
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
70
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
70
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
71
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
71
Confectionery
71
Meat
72
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
72
Jams & Jellies
75
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
75
Pasta
75
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
76
Prepared Fish
77
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
77
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
78
Oils & Fats
79
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
81
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
82
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
83
Dairy
83
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
84
Drink
88
Hot Drinks
88
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
89
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
89
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
89
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
90
Alcoholic Drinks
90
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2019
91
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2019
91
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2019
91
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2019
92
Soft Drinks
92
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
93
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
93
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
93
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
94
Mass Grocery Retail
94
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022
95
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
95
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
96
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
96
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
97
Regional Overview
98
Demographic Forecast
103
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025)
104
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025)
104
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025)
105
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025)
105
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025)
106
Demographic Outlook
108
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
109
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
109
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
110
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
110
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
111
Demographic Outlook
113
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025)
114
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025)
114
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025)
115
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025)
115
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025)
116
Demographic Outlook
118
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025)
119
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025)
119
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025)
120
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025)
120
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025)
121
Demographic Forecast
123
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
124
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
124
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
125
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
125
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
126
Demographic Forecast
128
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025)
129
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025)
129
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025)
130
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025)
130
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025)
131
Demographic Outlook
132
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025)
134
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025)
134
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025)
135
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025)
135
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025)
136
Methodology
138
Industry Forecast Methodology
138
Sector-Specific Methodology
139

The Central America Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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