BMI View: Mining sectors across Central America and the Caribbean will see varying growth prospects in 2019. T he region has significant untapped mineral potential, yet a range of business environments and operational challenges will lead to uneven growth . Overall, the mining sectors of Colombia and Panama will see the strongest longer-term growth, while Guatemala, and to a lesser extent Honduras, will underperform.
Colombia and Panama will outperform other countries in Central America and the Caribbean in terms of mining sector growth over the coming years. The two will lead in their overall business environments and mining sector regulatory frameworks, enabling consistent investment and sector development despite subdued industrial and precious metal prices. Furthermore, both have significant untapped base and precious metal reserves. Colombia will remain one of the world's top exporters of thermal coal in the coming years, and will seek to further diversify its exports and target Asian consumers. Panama will become a major copper exporter once its Cobre Panama copper and gold mine, owned and operated by First Quantum, comes online in Q417, thus delaying significant sector growth until the latter half of the decade.
|Colombia & Panama To Outperform|
|Select Countries - Mining Industry Value Growth (% chg y-o-y)|
The Dominican Republic and Jamaica will see middling performance over our forecast period. The former has seen its mining sector expand significantly in recent quarters owing to the ramp up of the Pueblo Viejo mine, operated by Barrick Gold and Goldcorp. While the Dominican Republic has other mining projects in development, we expect the overall pace of mining sector expansion will be modest in the years ahead. Meanwhile, Jamaica will also see only modest mining sector growth. We expect relatively new investment in the country's bauxite sector, though subdued oil prices will lower input costs for miners, potentially boosting production over the shorter term.
Frontier Central American Markets To Underperform
We expect mining firms in both Guatemala and Honduras will face operational difficulties stemming from poor rule of law, corruption, violence, and local opposition over the coming years. Between the two, Honduras shows some potential upside though given the country's regulators have seen a significant influx of mining permit applications stemming from an increasingly favourable regulatory environment. Nevertheless, we expect both countries will face continued headwinds given the majority of international mining firms, facing subdued metal prices, continue to eschew frontier destinations with elevated operational risks that impose greater financial costs.
The Central America & Caribbean Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Central America & Caribbean Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.