Central America & Caribbean Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Central America & Caribbean Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Mining sectors across Central America and the Caribbean will see varying growth prospects in 2020 . T he region has significant untapped mineral potential, yet a range of business environments and operational challenges will lead to uneven growth .

Select Countries - Mining Industry Value
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, USGS, BMI
Dominican Republic Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.86 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.94 0.98
Dominican Republic Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 15.00 1.00 2.00 1.75 1.50 3.00 4.50
Jamaica Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18
Jamaica Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 5.00 2.50 2.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Colombia Mining Industry Value, USDbn 20.48 21.00 21.63 22.38 23.28 24.32 25.54
Colombia Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 1.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Guatemala Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.95
Guatemala Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -5.00 -2.00 -5.12 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
Honduras Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.19
Honduras Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 3.00 -1.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 3.00 4.50
Panama Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.69 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.73 0.79 0.87
Panama Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -5.00 -2.50 1.50 2.50 5.00 7.50 10.00
Select Countries - Mining Industry Value
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Source= National Sources, USGS, BMI
Dominican Republic Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.86 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.94 0.98
Dominican Republic Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 15.00 1.00 2.00 1.75 1.50 3.00 4.50
Jamaica Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18
Jamaica Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 5.00 2.50 2.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Colombia Mining Industry Value, USDbn 20.48 21.00 21.63 22.38 23.28 24.32 25.54
Colombia Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 1.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Guatemala Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.95
Guatemala Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -5.00 -2.00 -5.12 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
Honduras Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.19
Honduras Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 3.00 -1.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 3.00 4.50
Panama Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.69 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.73 0.79 0.87
Panama Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -5.00 -2.50 1.50 2.50 5.00 7.50 10.00

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • Colombia: Colombia's coal sector will experience solid growth over our forecast period, as the country's low operating costs, vast reserves, and supportive regulatory system will encourage growth. We forecast Colombian coal production to increase from 95.4 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 115.1mnt by 2020 averaging 4.7% y-o-y growth.

  • Dominican Republic: The Dominican Republic's gold sector will experience a notable decline in output over the coming quarters, due to both lower gold grade recoveries and mechanical issues at the Pueblo Viejo mine. The mine, a joint venture by Canadian miners Barrick Gold (60%) and Goldcorp (40%), accounted for over 90% of the Dominican Republic's annual gold production in 2014. On November 19, 2015, the mine reported the sudden failure of two of three electric motors at the mine's oxygen plant. Barrick consequently lowered the firm's 2015 gold forecast, from 6.1-6.3 million ounces (moz) to 6.0-6.2moz. Pueblo Viejo accounts for approximately 10.4% of Barrick's total annual gold production.

  • In light of the above, we revised down our gold production growth forecast for the Dominican Republic, from 2.5% to -18.0% and 2.0% to -1.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. We expect the country's gold output to fall from 1.2moz in 2014 to 987 thousand ounces (koz) in 2015, declining further to 976koz in 2016. Beyond 2016, the country's gold production will recover modestly, supported largely by ongoing exploration of vast reserves at Pueblo Viejo, resulting in annual output growth averaging 1.6% during 2017-2020.

  • Guate mala: We expect Guatemala's silver output to increase marginally, from 27.3 million ounces (moz) in 2016 to 28.5moz by 2020, averaging 1.3% annual growth. Similarly, we forecast the country's gold production to rise slightly, from 191 thousand ounces (koz) in 2016 to 200koz by 2019, averaging 1.3% annual growth during 2016-2020. The country's overall mining industry value, totalling just over 1.0% of total GDP or approximately USD900mn in 2016, will remain at this level over our forecast period to 2020.

  • Honduras: Honduras' lead, silver and zinc production rates will return to growth by 2016, supported by low production costs and significant reserves. Production will decline for these minerals in 2015, following a drop in ore grades at Nyrstar's El Mochito mine, the country's key mine. Honduras' gold production growth will remain on track, despite a disruption at Aura Minerals' San Andres mine, the country's key gold mine.

  • Jamaica: Jamaica's bauxite production will be weighed down by an ongoing tax dispute with the government, while local opposition and persistently weak aluminium prices will deter investment into new greenfield projects. Although low fuel prices supported Jamaica's bauxite output growth, which increased by 2.4% over the first nine months of 2015, headwinds, most notably low bauxite prices will offset the majority of these gains during 2016-2019. We forecast the country's bauxite production to average 1.0% annual growth, increasing marginally from 9.9mnt in 2016 to 10.5mnt by 2020. Although Jamaica will remain a top global bauxite producer, the country's share of global output will fall from 3.4% in 2016 to 2.0% in 2020.

  • Panama: Panama's precious metals production growth will remain positive, due to a number of key upcoming projects set to come online over 2016-2017. In addition, the country's copper output will also post modest growth owing to the same factors. Specifically, Panama's vast mineral reserves and stable business environment, particularly compared to wider Central American region, will further encourage mining investment. We forecast Panama's gold production to climb from 95 thousand ounces (koz) in 2016 to 110koz by 2020, averaging 3.0% annual growth during 2016-2020. Despite our positive growth outlook, Panama's mining sector will account for less than 1.0% of the country's GDP over our forecast period to 2020.

  • Suriname: Suriname's gold production growth will be supported by new projects coming online, most notably Newmont Mining's major Merian project, set to come online in late 2016, and Iamgold's Rosebel mine. In Q315, Newmont reported the USD1.0bn Merian project to be progressing on schedule, with production expected to begin in H216. The project will produce between 400-500 thousand ounces (koz) per annum over the first five years, with all-in sustaining costs between USD650-750/oz. Newmont operates the project through its 100% owned subsidiary, Suriname Gold Corp (Surgold) and the Surinamese government maintains the option to earn in up to 25% of the mine. Additionally, Canada-based Suparna Gold Corp will continue to explore the Sara Creek gold deposit.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Select Countries - Mining Industry Value
7
Table: Select Countries - Mining Industry Value
7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Colombia - Set For Solid Growth
11
Table: Colombia Coal Production Forecast
11
Expert Miners Only
12
Europe To Be Top Export Destination
13
Dominican Republic - Pueblo Viejo To Drag Down Growth
15
Table: Dominican Republic - Gold Production Forecast
15
Guatemala - Local Opposition To Deter Growth
19
Table: Guatamala Production Forecast
19
Honduras - Challenging Environment To Weigh On Growth
23
Table: Honduras - Production Forecast
23
Jamaica - Government Policies To Hurt Growth
26
Table: Jamaica - Production Forecast
26
Panama - Golden Years Ahead
30
Table: Panama - Gold Production Forecast
30
Table: Panama - Key Mining Projects
30
Suriname: Newmont Project To Double Gold Output
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Industry Rewards
35
Country Rewards
35
Risks
35
Industry Risks
35
Country Risks
36
Jamaica Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Industry Rewards
36
Country Rewards
36
Risks
37
Industry Risks
37
Country Risks
37
Panama Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Industry Rewards
37
Country Rewards
37
Risks
38
Industry Risks
38
Country Risks
38
The Dominican Republic Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Industry Rewards
38
Country Rewards
39
Risks
39
Industry Risks
39
Country Risks
39
Americas - Risk/Reward Divergence To Emerge
39
Key Takeaways
39
Latest Revisions
41
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
42
Regulatory Development
43
Panama To Be Most Favourable Destination
43
Dominican Republic To See Potential Tension
43
Guatemala & Jamaica To Lag
44
Commodities Forecast
45
Commodities Outlook
45
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Smaller Players Pursuing Opportunities
46
Table: Financial Metrics
47
Company Profile
48
First Quantum - Q2 2016
48
Latest Results
51
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data
52
Barrick Gold - Q2 2016
54
Company Strategy
55
Latest Results
56
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data
57
Address Details
58
Goldcorp - Q2 2016
59
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data
61
Regional Overview
62
Methodology
67
Industry Forecast Methodology
67
Sources
68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
70

The Central America & Caribbean Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Central America & Caribbean Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.