Central America Food & Drink Report

Published 02 April 2015

  • 157 pages
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$1,295.00
Central America Food & Drink Report

BMI View: The economic trajectory for the region remains divergent. Despite our expectations for slower real GDP growth in Panama in the next several years, it will remain the regional outperformer. On the other hand, we have a more mixed outlook for growth in the 'northern triangle' countries. While they will likely benefit from improved agricultural yields and stronger US demand for manufactured goods, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are still vulnerable to significant structural macroeconomic weaknesses. We have upgraded our 2015 real private consumption growth outlook for several Central American economies, mainly due to an uptick in remittances from the US and the positive effect of cheaper fuel prices on household spending.

Headline Industry Data (regional averages)

2014 per capita food consumption (US dollar terms) = +4.8%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +4.4%.

2014 alcoholic drink sales (litres) = +5.1%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.6%.

2014 soft drink sales (litres) = +5.0%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.6%.

2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currencies) = +6.2%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +6.5%.

Key Company Trends

EU Goes Bananas For Costa Rican Produce : It was reported in early 2015 that banana exports from Costa Rica to the EU rose by around 10% during 9M14, compared with a 5% rise in total banana imports to the region. Companies were able to maintain production levels and preliminary figures point to an export total of about 110mn boxes, despite lower rainfall in H114 followed by an unusually wet period.

Fresh Del Monte Receives Sustainable Certification : In early 2015, US-based fruit and vegetable provider Fresh Del Monte Produce received sustainably grown certification for its fruit farms in Central America. Global certification body SCS Global Services (SCS) awarded the certification for all of Fresh Del Monte's banana plantations in Costa Rica and Guatemala and pineapple farms in Costa Rica. The...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
SWOT
12
Food
12
Drink
14
Mass Grocery Retail
16
Industry Forecast
18
Consumer Outlook
18
Food
22
Food Consumption
22
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
23
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
23
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
24
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2019
24
Confectionery
24
Meat
25
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
25
Jams & Jellies
28
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
28
Pasta
28
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
29
Prepared Fish
30
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
30
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
31
Oils & Fats
32
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
34
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
35
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
36
Dairy
36
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2019
37
Drink
41
Hot Drinks
41
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
42
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
42
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
42
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2019
43
Alcoholic Drinks
43
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2019
44
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2019
44
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2019
44
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2019
45
Soft Drinks
45
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
46
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
46
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
46
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2019
47
Mass Grocery Retail
47
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022
48
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
48
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
49
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
49
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2019
50
Trade
50
Table: Guatemala Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2019
51
Table: Costa Rica Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2019
51
Table: El Salvador Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2019
51
Table: Honduras Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2019
52
Macroeconomic Forecasts
53
Economic Analysis
53
Table: Current Account (El Salvador 2011-2019)
57
Economic Analysis
58
Table: Fiscal Policy (Guatemala 2011-2019)
61
Economic Analysis
62
Table: Fiscal Policy (Nicaragua 2011-2019)
65
Economic Analysis
66
Table: Macroeconomic Forecasts (Honduras 2011-2019)
69
Economic Analysis
71
Table: Macroeconomic Forecasts (Panama 2011-2019)
74
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
76
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
76
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q215
78
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Index Q215 (scores out of 10)
81
Market Overview
82
Food
82
Drink
83
Hot Drinks
83
Soft Drinks
84
Alcoholic Drinks
85
Mass Grocery Retail
86
Industry Trends And Developments
88
Food
88
Key Industry Trends And Developments
88
Drink
94
Key Industry Trends And Developments
94
Coffee Growers Gaining Support
97
Mass Grocery Retail
99
Key Industry Trends And Developments
99
Competitive Landscape
102
Table: Key Players In Central America's Food & Drink Sector
102
Table: Key Players In Guatemala's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
102
Table: Key Players In El Salvador's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
103
Table: Key Players In Costa Rica's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
104
Table: Key Players In Honduras' Mass Grocery Retail Sector
105
Company Profile
106
Diana Food
106
CBC
109
SABMiller
112
Florida Ice And Farm
115
Walmart de M-xico y Centroam-rica
118
Global Industry Overview
121
Table: TESCO - Selected Historical Financial Indicators
125
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
129
Demographic Forecast
131
Demographic Outlook
131
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
132
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
132
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
133
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
133
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
134
Demographic Outlook
136
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025)
137
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025)
137
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025)
138
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025)
138
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025)
139
Demographic Outlook
141
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025)
142
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025)
142
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025)
143
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025)
143
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025)
144
Demographic Outlook
146
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025)
147
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025)
147
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025)
148
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025)
148
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025)
149
Glossary
151
Food & Drink
151
Mass Grocery Retail
151
Methodology
153
Industry Forecast Methodology
153
Sector-Specific Methodology
154
Sources
154
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
155
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
156
Table: Weighting
157

The Central America Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Central America Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Guatemalan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Honduran food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc