BMI View: We currently forecast an average of 2.3 % real growth in Central America's construction industry value for 201 5 , which is considerably higher than our regional average estimate for 2014 at 0.4% . We expect Honduras, El Salvador and N icaragua's construction industries to return to positive growth in 2015 while Panama's will contract, as the completion of the Canal expansion nears its end.
We see high risks, small scale and limited growth opportunities across the region as a whole. A crucial factor underpinning our forecasts for infrastructure investments in future years is political and security risk. This is a particular concern in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala where high levels of crime, homicide, violence, and insecurity exacerbate operational risks for companies willing to invest in those countries. As such, we believe that local and regional companies (especially Mexican and Brazilian), as well as Chinese players which have a stronger appetite for risk, are best placed to benefit from the opportunities on offer in the region. In this context, we also highlight Spanish companies which have an established presence in Central America.
Despite the small size of their construction industries, Central American countries present a wide range of small-scale opportunities (albeit the inter-oceanic canal projects) as the region aims to bridge its infrastructure gap. However, these markets are faced by strong challenges in the form of deep-run corruption, high levels of inequality, and unsophisticated institutions.
A number of countries in the region are pursuing public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop infrastructure. For example, Guatemala - which established a PPP agency in November 2011 - is hoping to launch its first concession for Line 1 of the Guatemala City passenger railway in H115. In December 2014, Honduras' PPP promotion agency, Coalianza, announced a new tender to be launched for construction and...
The Central America Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Central America Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Panamanian, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Belizean, Honduran infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Panamanian, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Belizean, Honduran infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Panamanian, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Belizean, Honduran infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.