BMI View: Legislative and regulatory improvements to the Central American healthcare system will further strengthen sector coordination, enhancing medical efficiencies and treatments over the long-term. The region's ageing population and dependence on pharmaceutical imports will increase foreign investment appeal as public health provision grows.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: USD3.7bn in 2014 to USD3.9bn in 2015; +4.6%. Our forecast has been maintained since Q 1 15 .
Healthcare: USD16.5bn in 2014 to USD17.4bn in 2015; +4.9%. Our forecast has been revised down wards since Q 4 15 due to revised macroeconomic data.
Based on our analysis and assessment of the market's appeal to pharmaceutical companies in our Q116 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), the Americas scores 49 out of 100, below Western Europe (67), Asia Pacific (52), and Central and Eastern Europe (49), but above the Middle East and Africa (40.3). Of the six Central American countries surveyed Panama's RRI score ranks first at 44.0, followed by Costa Rica (43.2), Guatemala (38.8), Nicaragua (34.3), El Salvador 33.8 and Honduras (33.4). The main factor bringing down the Americas score lies with its underdeveloped regulatory and patent regimes and poor clinical data protection.
Bayer invested USD1.7mn to modernise its plant in Ilopango, El Salvador. The funds were used in technology upgrades, and remodeling and updating of software infrastructure.
The Brazilian government donated a cache of second generation antiretroviral drugs to the El Salvador government under a bilateral cooperation initiative for the prevention and control of HIV infection.
Panama's Health Ministry provided a contribution of USD640,774 to the UN Development Programme (UNDP).
The Costa Rican government established the National Health Policy, in an effort to improve public health services and promote unified healthcare. While Costa Rica's public health system already utilises universal medical care, the new policy is meant to 'address major challenges and further unify actions within the health field' according to the Ministry of Health.
The Honduran government established a new health advisory committee with the aim of improving the healthcare sector's regulatory environment. The committee will contribute to regulatory reforms, promotions and the general monitoring of the industry to ensure the availability of safe and effective healthcare services to citizens.
The Panamanian government announced the installation of a new Committee on Labour, Health and Social Development, known informally in the Ministry of Health as simply the Health Committee.
BMI Economic View
The region's economic trajectory remains divergent. Panama will continue to be the regional outperformer, boasting the strongest economy of Central America, excluding Mexico. Countries like Costa Rica and Guatemala, who previously suffered from struggling economies, will begin to see financial improvements in 2015 through strong investment, an uptake in private consumption, and national savings through tax reform. El Salvador will also see mild economic improvements as heightened consumption drives economic growth. Guatemala and Honduras will remain in weak economic positions, with expectations for little investment opportunities.
BMI Political View
Regional corruption and security risks continue to pose threats to Central America. Drug cartels, counterfeit products, heightened crime, and violence will remain major concerns to Central American political stability. Social unrest in Honduras and Nicaragua will be particularly problematic in 2015 as the political landscape of these countries becomes threatened through accusations of government corruption and poor business environments.
The Central America Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Central America Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Panamanian, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Belizean, Honduran pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Panamanian, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Belizean, Honduran pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.