Chile Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Chile Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Economic growth in Chile will stagnate in 2016 as lower average copper prices undermine exports and force a paring back of government spending. Private consumption and investment will pick up, as manufacturing gradually strengthens.

  • Chile's ongoing external account rebalancing will continue in the coming years, as a weaker average peso bolsters the economic competitiveness of manufactured goods exports, offsetting weakness in mining exports. Moreover, structurally lower oil prices will reduce Chile's import bill, contributing to a widening of the goods trade surplus.

  • The Chilean peso will remain under broad downside pressure from falling copper prices and a bull run on the US dollar over the coming quarters. However, structurally lower oil prices will bolster the country's terms of trade, helping the unit to stabilise following a significant sell-off.

  • The Chilean government's expansionary fiscal policies will drive a widening of the nominal budget shortfall in 2016. Beyond 2016, the deficit will begin to gradually narrow as spending policies normalise and an increase in the corporate tax rate bolsters revenues.

Key Risks

  • Should the Chinese economy deteriorate more significantly than currently anticipated in 2016, copper prices could continue falling, leading to weaker-than-expected export performance, slower growth and a further depreciation of the CLP.

  • Investigations into official corruption could further undermine President Michelle Bachelet's political support and derail her government's reform agenda.

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Employment Gains In Services To Drive Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECAST
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Fiscal Deficit Will Peak In 2016
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Weak Peso Will Drive External Account Rebalancing
13
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy
16
Elevated Inflation Will Lead To Additional Hikes
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Currency Forecast
18
CLP: Pace Of Depreciation To Slow
18
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
18
TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Chilean Economy To 2025
21
Slower Growth, But Strong Fundamentals
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Pace Of Bachelet's Reforms Will Be Tepid
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Broad Stability To Persist
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Trade Procedures And Governance
31
TABLE: EXPORT AND IMPORT DOCUMENTS
31
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
31
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
32
Vulnerability To Crime
33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
37
Global Macro Outlook
37
Unfinished Business In 2016
37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
38
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
39
TABLE: CHILE - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41

Assess your risk exposure in Chile with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Chile with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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