Chile Mining Report

Published 03 June 2015

  • 80 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Chile Mining Report

BMI View: Chile's mining sector will see modest average annual growth of 1. 6 % in 201 5 -201 9 . Mining investment will be encouraged by the country's stable political and business environments , combined with its significant mineral reserves. Nevertheless , older mines will still face declining output , while subdued copper and precious metal prices will limit sector growth and miners' expansion plans .

Chile's mining sector will be dominated by copper production over our forecast period to 2019. The sector's pipeline of copper projects and the country's global dominance in copper production will ensure the country maintains its lead despite falling ore grades and lagging productivity. In 2014, copper accounted for approximately 92% of mining exports as measured in dollar terms and nearly 55% of the country's total exports. However, the latter represents a decline from 2010, when copper accounted for slightly over 58% of the country's total exports. Moreover, lower oil prices and a weaker Chilean peso on the back of US dollar strength will cap growth in input costs, providing a boon to miners facing subdued metal prices.

Over the long term, the mining industry will be hit by lower copper prices, which we expect to only recover modestly up to 2019. For 2015, we forecast copper prices to average USD5750/tonne, significantly lower than the average USD6830/tonne in 2014.

Mining Share Of Exports In Decline
Chile - Mining Exports As Percent Of Total Exports

Further Investment, But Only Modest Sector Growth

State-owned Codelco will remain Chile's largest copper miner as measured in output, and indeed the largest copper miner globally, through 2019. The company recently pushed back its forecast for 2.0mnt of copper output annually to 2025 though, from its earlier target of 2020, due to disagreements with the Chilean government over annual investment levels. While the Chilean government recently agreed to provide USD4bn of financing to 2018, the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Further Investment, But Only Modest Sector Growth
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Copper: Slow But Gradual Growth Ahead
11
Global Majors To Stay On Top
12
Table: Chile - New Copper Projects
14
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Chile 2014-2019)
18
Silver: Subdued Growth Ahead
18
Silver Deposits To Be Developed
19
Table: Chile - Key Silver Mine Projects
20
Table: Silver Production (Chile 2014-2019)
20
Gold: Rising Costs And Project Delays To Subdue Growth
21
Copper To Remain Main Dominant
22
Table: Chile - Major Gold Projects
22
Key Challenges: Project Delays And Price Weakness
22
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Chile 2011-2019)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Chile Risk/Reward Index
24
Rewards
24
Industry Rewards
24
Country Rewards
24
Risks
25
Industry Risks
25
Country Risks
25
Table: Chile - Mining Forecasts (2014-2019)
26
Americas Risk Reward Index
26
Regional Risks Increase Modestly
26
Weak Prices To Hurt, While Stronger Dollar A Mixed Blessing
27
Regional Outlook Unchanged Despite Some Reordering
28
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
29
Regulatory Development
30
Positive Outlook, Though Challenges Ahead
30
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
31
Commodities Forecast
34
Commodity Strategy
34
Ferrous Metals
34
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016
34
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017
36
Non-Ferrous Metals
39
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally
39
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
41
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
42
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
43
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Codelco To Lead The Pack
47
Table: Chile - Financial Data For Domestically Listed Mining Firms
48
Company Profile
49
Antofagasta
49
Latest Results
51
Table: Antofagasta - Supply Chain Analysis
51
Table: Antofagasta - Financial Data
52
Codelco
53
Latest Results
55
Table: Codelco - Supply Chain Analysis
55
Table: Codelco - Financial Data
56
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q3 2015
57
Company Strategy
59
Latest Results
60
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
61
Regional Overview
62
Three Key Themes For Americas Mining
62
Regulatory Changes Still On The Cards
62
Dollar Strength And Oil Price Weakness To Push Down Costs
63
Southern Growth To Outpace North
64
Global Industry Overview
66
Global Overview
66
1
67
2
69
3
70
4
72
5
74
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sources
77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
79

The Chile Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Chile Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Chile.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Chile's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc