BMI View: Chile's mining sector value will continue to contract through 2017, on the back of weak mineral prices and elevated operating costs. Nonetheless, country will remain the top global copper producer by a wide margin over our forecast period to 2020.
|Note: See Industry Forecasts for specific commodity growth forecasts. e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BCC, BMI|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||29.30||27.70||26.70||26.50||26.90||27.40||27.90|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-5.03||-5.60||-3.34||-0.69||1.39||1.69||1.76|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
We forecast Chile's mining industry value to edge higher, increasing from USD26.7bn in 2016 to USD27.9bn by 2020, averaging 0.2% annual growth. Miners in the country will come under increasing environmental scrutiny from the regulatory body, facing fines, project delays and operational disruptions.
Chile, the largest copper producer, will experience relatively flat growth over 2016 to 2020, as weak copper prices, weather-related operational disruptions and declining copper ore grades curb output. We forecast Chile's annual copper production growth to average 1.1% over this period, increasing in volume from 5.7 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 6.1mnt by 2020.
Chile's gold sector will experience limited growth over our forecast period to 2020 due to persistently low gold prices. We expect production to increase at an average y-o-y rate of 0.6% between 2016 and 2020, with output growing from 1.38 million ounces (moz) to 1.42moz.
Elevated operating costs, notably water and power costs, will weigh on Chile's extractive sector, deterring investment particularly in light of lower costs in neighbouring Peru. While lower oil prices and a weaker Chilean peso on the back of US dollar strength will cap growth in input costs, providing a boon to miners facing subdued metal prices, the benefit will be outweighed by rising operating costs.
Climbing rates of mining sector layoffs along with declining investment levels provide further evidence of Chile's mining sector (largely copper) malaise. For instance, in Q116, mining sector layoffs totalled 76.1 thousand people, compared to 66.7 thousand people in Q115. State copper commission Cochilco estimates copper project investment of USD44.1mn 2016, down significantly from USD75.1mn the previous year.
The Chile Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Chile Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Chile.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Chile's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.