BMI View: Limited prospectivity and nascent exploration of unconventional resources will maintain Chile's heavy reliance on energy imports for the foreseeable future. The Magallanes region will continue to remain the focal point of hydrocarbon exploration and production activities, though achieving significant progress will be challenged by lower oil prices and corresponding spending pullbacks among upstream firms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: JODI, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||8.8||7.9||7.5||7.6||7.6||7.7||7.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||212.3||218.5||220.7||224.0||227.4||230.8||233.1|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||321.8||338.6||348.7||359.2||370.0||382.9||396.3|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.9||1.1||1.1||1.1||1.1||1.1||1.1|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||4.6||4.5||4.7||4.8||5.0||5.1||5.3|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
The Magallanes region will continue to remain the focal point of hydrocarbon exploration and production in Chile. On June 13, Chilean national oil company (NOC) Empresa Nacional Del Petroleo (ENAP) announced it had signed an agreement with US independent ConocoPhillips to explore for and produce natural gas in the region, with the NOC retaining a 51.0% operating stake in the project.
The CEOP will allow ConocoPhillips to increase its upstream activity in phases, with investment expected to reach USD70-100mn over the next four years, depending on exploration and appraisal results within the play.
The expansion of the Panama Canal in June 2016 could pave the way for a significant upsurge in LNG imports from the US. Over the first 10 months of 2016, LNG supplies from the US accounted for 20.3% of total imports, second only to Trinidad & Tobago.
Chile exported 4.5mn cubic meters of natural gas to Argentina over May-September 2016, to help the latter offset rising gas demand for heating over the southern hemisphere winter months.
Emphasis on fiscal prudence will see Chile raise government spending by the least in 14 years in 2017, which could adversely impact demand for refined fuels. Nonetheless, the long-term macroeconomic outlook remains positive, with real GDP growth set to average 3.7% per annum through to 2025.
The Chile Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Chile including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Chile Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chilean oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Chile to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chilean oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chilean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.