Chile Power Report

Published 20 February 2015

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Chile Power Report

BMI View: Chile will remain one of the most attractive power markets in Latin America over the next 10 years due to its strong electricity consumption growth , driven by the country's expanding manufacturing sector and energy intensive mining industry. A stable business environment and liberalised electricity sector will continue to support investment in new power capacity, strengthening our upbeat forecast for growth in electricity generation . While investment in large-scale hydropower projects will be hampered by regulatory uncertainties , renewables and natural gas-fired power generation will experience considerable growth and create significant investment opportunities over our 10-year forecast period.

After a slowdown in 2014, the Chilean economy will expand 2.6% in 2015, driven by strengthening manufacturing sector and private consumption growth. Weakness in the Chilean peso and lower oil prices will boost these dynamics, ensuring sustained economic growth over the next decade. Our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP will grow by an average of 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) between 2016 and 2024. The resiliency of Chile's energy-intensive mining sector to a lower copper's price, coupled with an expanding population, will contribute to strong growth in power demand over the coming decade.

We forecast electricity consumption to grow by an annual average rate of 4.50% between 2015 and 2024, reaching a total of 105.70 terawatts hour (TWh) by the end of our 10-year forecast period. Meanwhile, we forecast total power generation to increase by an annual average rate of 4.50% over the next decade, totalling 109.14TWh in 2024. Although this increase will be the result of an uptick in installed capacity across all power sources, we hold a particularly upbeat outlook for renewables and natural gas-fired technologies.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Our positive outlook for investment into Chile's power sector is supported by the results of the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Chile Snaphot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Chile Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Chile Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Rewards
31
Risks
32
Market Overview
33
Key Policies And Market Structure
33
Regulation And Competition
33
Sustainable Energy Policies
35
Pricing
35
Chile Power Projects Database
36
Table: Chile Major Projects - Power
36
Competitive Landscape
41
Transelec
42
Enersis/Endesa
42
Suez/Tractebel
43
AES
43
Colb-n
44
Pacific Hydro
45
Company Profile
46
Enersis
46
Regional Overview
49
Latin America Power Regional Overview
49
Glossary
55
Table: Glossary Of Terms
55
Methodology
56
Methodology And Sources
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Chile Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Chile Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Chile's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc