Chile Power Report

Published 26 May 2015

  • 76 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Chile Power Report

BMI View: Chile will be one of the most attractive power markets in Latin America over the next 10 years due to its strong electricity consumption growth , driven by the country's expanding manufacturing sector and energy intensive mining industry. A stable business environment and the government ' s use of power procurement auctions for the regulated market will attract strong investment in to new power capacity . While the development of large-scale hydropower projects will be hampered by regulatory uncertainties , renewables and natural gas-fired power generation will experience considerable growth . This, in turn, will create abundant business opportunities for providers of power transmission infrastructure.

A stable policy and business environment, an upbeat macroeconomic trajectory and strong growth in power consumption support our positive investment outlook for Chile's power market. After a slowdown in 2014, the Chilean economy will expand 3.0% in 2015, driven by strengthening manufacturing sector and private consumption growth. Weakness in the Chilean peso and lower oil prices will boost these dynamics, ensuring sustained economic growth over the next decade. Our Country Risk team forecast real GDP will grow by an average of 4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) between 2015 and 2024. The resiliency of Chile's energy-intensive mining sector to a lower copper's price, coupled with an expanding population, will contribute to strong growth in power demand over the coming decade.

As a result, we forecast electricity consumption to grow by an annual average rate of 4.8% between 2015 and 2024, reaching a total of 109.43TWh by the end of our 10-year forecast period. We expect total power generation to increase by an annual average rate of 4.7% over the next decade, totalling 120.17TWh in 2024. This increase will be the result of an uptick in installed capacity across all power sources, but we hold a particularly upbeat outlook for renewables...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Chile Snaphot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Chile Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
15
Table: Selected Delayed Large-Scale Hydropower Projects
23
Electricity Consumption
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
25
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Index
30
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index
30
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
35
Chile Power Risk/Reward Index
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation And Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
42
Pricing
43
Chile Power Projects Database
44
Table: Chile Major Projects - Power
44
Competitive Landscape
55
Transelec
56
Enersis/Endesa
57
Chile Power Report Q3 2015
Chile Power Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Suez/Tractebel
57
AES
58
Colb-n
59
Pacific Hydro
59
Company Profile
60
Enersis
60
Regional Overview
63
Gas And Renewables To Offer Abundant Opportunities
63
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
70
Industry Forecast Methodology
70
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Chile Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Chile Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Chile's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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