Chile Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Chile Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Chile will be one of the most attractive power markets in Latin America over the coming decade, owing to its stable business environment and investor-friendly regulations , an upbeat macroeconomic outlook and strong growth in power consumption . T he government ' s use of energy auctions for the regulated market , coupled with energy demand from miners located far from the main power network, will create long-term business opportunities for power developers. Meanwhile, the need to strengthen Chile 's power grid will create opportunities for providers of transmission infrastructure.

Headline Power Forecasts (Chile 2014-2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN
Generation, Total, TWh 69.303 74.417 81.797 84.486 89.149 94.581 97.622
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 68.5 72.2 77.2 82.6 88.0 92.4 96.1
Capacity, Net, MW 19,349.4 20,706.9 23,333.5 24,629.1 26,390.9 27,471.6 28,174.6

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We hold an upbeat growth outlook for gas-fired power generation in Chile over the next 10 years, supported by plans to develop several plants, the low cost of LNG and the government's commitment to increasing the role of gas in Chile's energy matrix. Illustrating the growing investor interest in the sector, in November 2015, Chile's national oil company (NOC) ENAP and AES Gener signed a contract whereby the NOC will provide natural gas to the utility for power generation. The first project to benefit from ENAP's LNG will be the 379MW Central Nueva Ronca project, starting in 2016.

  • In November 2015, power generator E-CL (the Chilean subsidiary of France's Engie) cancelled its plans to build a second coal-fired unit at the Thermoelectric Mejillones Infrastructure complex. The development supports our view that coal-fired power generation will decrease in importance in Chile's generation mix over the coming decade due to faster growth in alternative technologies and coal power's falling cost-competitivenss.

  • Opposition on a social and environmental base will raise a risk of delays to the development of large-scale hydropower projects in Chile. For example, at present Chile's Environmental Assessment Service (SEA) is evaluating 11 appeals against its 2013 decision to clear the 640MW Cuervo hydropower plant, scheduled to enter into operation in December 2022.

  • Wind and solar power projects were on offer at the latest energy auction for regulated SIC and SING clients, cementing our view that Chile will be a global bright-spot for renewables investment over the coming quarters. Three solar developers and two wind power developers secured long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) for all energy in tender at the auction, by offering a lower price per megawawtt hours (MWh) than companies competing with conventional power generation projects.

  • In August 2015, the government submitted to the lower house of the parliament a bill to reorganise the structure of Chile's power transmission industry. The bill aims to increase competition in the power generation sector, improve the quality of the service, and reduce electricity prices for consumers by attracting investment in the transmission sector. We expect the government to push for the new regulations to be approved by the parliament in Q116, ahead of an energy auction for the regulated market scheduled for May 2016.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Chile 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Chile Snaphot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Chile Forecast Scenario
12
Positive Outlook For Investment And Growth
12
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast
13
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast
15
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
18
Table: Chile's Major Hydropower Project Pipeline
20
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
21
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
25
Electricity Consumption
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
26
Transmission & Distribution
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2013-2018)
30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2019-2024)
30
Industry Risk/Reward Index
31
Latin America Power RRI: Mexico And Chile Lead Stable Index
31
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
36
Chile Power Risk/Reward Index
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation And Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Pricing
41
Chile Power Projects Database
42
Competitive Landscape
45
Transelec
45
Enersis/Endesa
46
ENAP
46
Suez/Tractebel
47
AES
47
Colb-n
48
Pacific Hydro
48
Company Profile
49
Enersis
49
Regional Overview
53
Latin America Power Regional Overview
53
Glossary
59
Table: Glossary Of Terms
59
Methodology
60
Methodology And Sources
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Chile Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Chile Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Chile's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).