BMI View: Chile ' s power market will be one of the most attractive and dynamic in Latin America over the next few years , owing to the country's stable business environment and investor-friendly regulations , a solid macroeconomic outlook and robust growth in power consumption . T he government ' s use of energy auctions for the regulated market , coupled with energy demand from miners located far from the main power network, will create long-term business opportunities for power generators . Meanwhile, the need to expand Chile 's power grid will drive demand for transmission infrastructure.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, CNE, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||72.610||80.770||82.850||87.340||92.930||95.700||98.220|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||71.5||75.1||79.2||83.6||87.8||91.3||95.1|
|Capacity, Net, MW||20,496.3||24,050.4||25,326.4||26,807.7||27,969.7||28,421.3||29,055.7|
Latest Updates A nd Structural Trends
The latest investment plans of major international energy companies operating in Chile have strengthened our positive outlook for the country's power sector. Spain's Gas Natural Fenosa and Red Electrica and Italy's Enel will all increase their exposure to the market over the next few quarters.
Popular opposition to the development of large-scale hydropower projects remains a key downside risk to our forecast for the hydropower sector. In particular, we highlight hostility to the completion of the 531MW Alto Maipo hydropower complex remains strong, although construction of the project is progressing.
A bill presented by the government in 2015 to reorganise the structure of Chile's power transmission sector is currently under consideration by the Senate. The document was approved by the lower house of the parliament in January 2015. The bill aims to accelerate the development process of new power transmission lines and facilite investment in the sector. We expect the government to push for the new regulation to be approved ahead of the July-August 2016 energy auction for the regulated power market.
It was announced that Gas Natural Fenosa and E-CL are considering building gas-fired power plants in Chile. This development, together with a significant pipeline of projects already under construction and planned, supports our positive growth outlook for gas-fired power generation in Chile over the next 10 years. Our forecast is also premised on the construction of an LNG import terminal, low international gas prices and the government's commitment to increasing the role of gas in Chile's energy matrix.
Rapid implementation of solar power projects over the past several months prompted us to upwardly revise our forecasts for total renewables power capacity and generation in Chile. Government data for the renewables sector continue to support our view that Chile will be a regional outperformer for investment in renewables over the coming quarters.
The Chile Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Chile Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Chile's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).