BMI View: We have made some forecast revisions to our Chile mobile outlook for the Q416 report update. The market posted a strong rebound in terms of subscriber growth in H1 16, bolstered by WOM ' s low cost services. I ncreased access to 3G/4G services , as operators launch LTE in acquired 700MHz spectrum later in the year , will spur growth in the marke t - trickl ing down growth i n to the mobile broadband segment, particular ly within rural areas. We also anticipate that moderate growth will continue within fixed - line services , supported by multi-service capabilities of existing infrastructure. The discounting of inactive users will , however , see negative net subscriber additions in some quarters towards the end of the forecast period in 2020 .
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Chile's mobile market lost an estimated 603,000 subscribers in 2015, a decline we attribute largely to the discounting of inactive SIM cards. The market added an impressive 760,000 new subscribers in the first six months of 2016, however, as it began to rebound from the discounting of 2015. The prime focus of the three large operators is now on migrating prepaid customers to value-added data packs. 3G and 4G services will be the primary drivers of growth with 3G/4G connections expected to surpass 23mn by the end of the forecast period in 2020.
Broadband internet subscriptions are expected to exceed 4.1mn by the end of 2020, up from 3.52mn at the end of 2015 and equivalent to a penetration rate of almost 22%. Encouraging fixed broadband, fibre-optic connections are beginning to play an important role in the market. The proliferation of 4G LTE services will also help maintain medium-term growth momentum.
Chile's president Michelle Bachelet has unveiled the country's Digital Agenda 2020 plan, promising to reduce the digital divide. Under the plan, which contains a total of 60 measures to be developed via public and private partnerships, the government intends to double broadband penetration to 90% over the next five years. Internet is currently available to only 42% of homes in Chile's rural areas, according to Bachelet.
|WOM: Disrupting Market Forces|
|No. Of Net Additions (000), 2014-2016|
|Source: operator data, national sources, BMI|
The Chile Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Chile's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Chile Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Chile.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chilean telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Chile's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.