China Agribusiness Report

Published 26 August 2015

  • 126 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
China Agribusiness Report

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future and we see particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, with GDP growth slowing down, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015 amidst low supply, elevated prices and the ongoing crackdown on red tape and government receptions, which also supported demand in recent years.

Agricultural production in China has recorded exceptional growth over recent years, driven by an expansion in area cultivated and strong growth in productivity. However, output growth is slowing down in some of the largest producers, due to pollution and land constraints. The government has acknowledged the challenge and is more reformist than ever. In 2015, China will continue to amend its stockpiling policy and will accelerate its reforms to partially liberalise land and prices, which will enable the country to maintain an elevated level of food self-sufficiency.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2005-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 2018/19: 10.3% to 241mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by a steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years and sustained public support. China's production deficit will amount around 4mn tonnnes by the end of our forecast...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Agribusiness
11
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Grains Outlook
15
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
17
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
17
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
18
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
23
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
24
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
24
Rice Outlook
26
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2019)
27
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
28
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
30
Soybean Outlook
32
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
34
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
41
Sugar Outlook
42
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
43
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
48
Cotton Outlook
50
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2013-2019)
51
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
58
Dairy Outlook
60
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
61
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
62
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
62
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (China 2014-2019)
62
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
71
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
72
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
72
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (China 2009-2014)
72
Livestock Outlook
74
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
77
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
77
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
77
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2009-2013
88
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2009-2013
88
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2010-2014
89
China Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
China Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Commodities Price Analysis
90
Monthly Softs Strategy
90
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
99
Monthly Grains Strategy
100
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
107
Upstream Analysis
108
Asia GM Outlook
108
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
111
Asia Machinery Outlook
112
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
113
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
119
Downstream Analysis
125
Food
125
Food Consumption
125
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2012-2019)
126
Confectionery
126
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2012-2019)
127
Drink
129
Hot Drinks
129
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
130
Alcoholic Drinks
131
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
132
Soft Drinks
133
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (China 2014-2019)
135
Mass Grocery Retail
137
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
138
Regional Overview
139
Competitive Landscape
145
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies (USD Mn
145
Company Profile
146
Global Company Strategy
146
Table: Financial Highlights
154
Demographic Forecast
155
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
156
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
156
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
157
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
157
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
158
Methodology
160
Industry Forecast Methodology
160
Sector-Specific Methodology
161

The China Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's China Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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