BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future , with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and livestock . High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015 .
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of Total) (2012-2020)|
|Source: BMI Calculation/FAO|
Corn production growth to 2019/20: 12.3% to 242mn tonnes. Given the decrease in public support to corn production, output expansion will be driven by a steady improvements in corn yields and the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years. China's production deficit will amount around 6mn tonnnes by the end of our forecast period.
Pork production growth to 2019/20: 16.1% to 65.5mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.
Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 18.5% to 20mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by rising income, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy, beverage, and food processing
BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,410mn in 2016 (up 4.7% compared with 2015, growth forecast to average 4.2% annually between 2016 and 2020).
2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% expected in 2015, forecast to average 5.7% between 2016 and 2020).
2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y ave (up from 1.3% expected in 2015, forecast to average 2.3% between 2016 and 2020).
Agricultural production in China has recorded exceptional growth over recent years, driven by an expansion in area cultivated and strong growth in productivity. However, output growth is slowing down for some commodities, due to pollution and land constraints. The government has acknowledged the challenge and is willing to transform agriculture by reforming policies, a task it has described as 'urgent'. Authorities are making amendments to their cotton and grain stockpiling and subsidy policies to encourage structural change in farming, boost farm productivity and protect the environment. The changes, started in 2015, will continue into 2016 and beyond.
The overall trend is towards a partial liberalisation of agricultural prices and land use (encouraging renting land in order to consolidate farmland and boost productivity) and towards more efficiency (boosting mechanisation and the links between farms and processing facilities) Authorities are also changing their paradigm regarding grains self-sufficiency, a target they have been promoting actively for decades. China will continue to ensure that about 95% of its wheat and rice is grown domestically; the government seems to have taken a less strict stance on corn self-sufficiency.
China is changing its stance on food imports and showing signs that it is ready to accept larger volumes of imports in the coming years. In order to mitigate its reliance on foreign resources, the country is diversifying its import suppliers base (towards the Black Sea Region and Latin America) and looking at controlling the trade supply chain by investing in commodities trading houses ( China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation acquired a majority stake in food traders Nidera and Noble Group in 2014), international food producers ( Shuanghui acquired US pork producer Smithfield in 2013) and input companies ( ChemChina is in the process of acquiring Syngenta as of February 2016).
Several agricultural sectors are going through challenging times. Meat and dairy consumption has been hit amidst low supply, elevated prices and the ongoing crackdown on red tape and government receptions, which have supported demand in recent years. Headwinds will persist as China's GDP growth continues to slow down and consumer trust in food safety dwindles. In addition, food ingredients prices are increasing, labour costs are soaring and bank loan requirements for small sized enterprises are tightening.
The China Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's China Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.