BMI View: The SUV sub-segment will continue to drive passenger vehicle sales in 2016 as China, the biggest automotive market in the world, continues to grow to 2020. The growth in passenger vehicle sales will continue to attract production investment into the segment, while an overall slowing in industrial activity and infrastructure growth limits commercial vehicle sales.
|Passenger Vehicle sales Outperforming|
|Total Vehicle Sales (units), Passenger Vehicle Sales And Commercial Vehicle Sales Growth (% chg y-o-y) (2014-2020)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: CAAM, BMI|
The ongoing rebalancing of the economy towards consumption- rather than investment-led growth will see the passenger car continuing to outperform commercial vehicles over 2016-2020.
Total vehicle sales and total vehicle production grew 8.1% and 6.5% respectively for H116.
Domestic vehicle production will continue to closely track domestic vehicle demand as companies invest to produce specifically for the Chinese market.
The removal of the 50% ownership cap in the motorcycle industry will lay the groundwork for the removal of the same policy in the car industry.
The China Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's China Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.