According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, auto sales in 2014 came in at 23,491,900 units, an increase of 6.9%. While certainly impressive compared with the growth rates of other auto markets such as the BRICS, growth slowed from the 13.9% increase in 2013. For 2015, we forecast sales growth to continue slowing as the Chinese economy weakens and, at the same time, we expect the divergence in passenger car and commercial vehicle sales to endure.
We forecast auto sales growth to further slow in 2015 to 5.7%. As the accompanying chart highlights, growth in vehicle sales has been trending lower over the past two years in line with the slowdown in economic growth. With our Country Risk team expecting GDP growth to slow to 6.7% in 2015 compared with 7.3% in 2014, it's reasonable to assume that economic headwinds will weigh on auto sales over the course of the year.
While the electric vehicle (EV) segment experienced strong growth in 2014 (3.2 times 2013), EV sales - amounting to 74,763 units, contributed to less than 0.4% of the 23.4mn vehicles sold in 2013. We believe the sustained growth rates in EV sales will likely result in the government's target of 273,150 sales by 2017 being met.
The supplier market in China is also expected to see strong growth over the coming years, as various regulatory changes bring about opportunities for different market players within the segment. Amidst the ongoing anti-trust crackdown, the after-sales market will benefit from a more level playing field, as original equipment suppliers will be allowed to sell their products directly to consumers and non-authorised dealers. The more heavy handed approach that Beijing is taking to ensure automakers meet fuel economy targets also suggests opportunities for turbochargers.
With the pressing need for an upgrade to the country's road network clearly demonstrated, we believe this inland push by automakers will also create massive growth opportunities for road freight and...
The China Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's China Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.