According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, auto sales in June 2015 declined 2.3% y-o-y to 1,803,100 units, bringing sales for H115 to 11,854,900 units, an increase of 1.5% y-o-y. We have downgraded our 2015 sales growth forecast to 3.9% as a slowing economy coupled with the recent stock market collapse remain key headwinds to demand.
Besides these factors, we see auto demand taking a hit from the increasing number of cities placing restrictions on car sales to tackle their worsening air pollution and traffic problems. For instance, Shenzhen announced curbs on car sales in December 2014 and has capped the number of new cars sold in the city to 100,000 units a year. As more upper tier cities, which have traditionally been strong demand drivers, impose caps, automakers will have to accelerate their expansion in the country's less penetrated Western region to find new areas of growth.
After contracting by 6.5% in 2014, we forecast commercial vehicle (CV) sales to decline at a more modest rate of 1.0% in 2015. However, the rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from an investment-led growth model to a more consumption driven one will weigh on CV sales in the coming years.
Suppliers In Sweet Spot
The supplier market in China is also expected to see strong growth over the coming years, as various regulatory changes bring about opportunities for different market players within the segment. Amidst the ongoing anti-trust crackdown, the after-sales market will benefit from a more level playing field, as original equipment suppliers will be allowed to sell their products directly to consumers and non-authorised dealers. The more heavy handed approach that Beijing is taking to ensure automakers meet fuel economy targets also suggests opportunities for turbochargers.
With the pressing need for an upgrade to the country's road network clearly demonstrated, we believe this inland push by automakers will also create massive growth opportunities for road...
The China Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's China Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.