BMI View: The forecast for China's consumer electronics devices market was negatively impacted by a revision in the assessment for the CNY/USD exchange rate in the Q216 update, with our Country Risk team now expected more extensive depreciation. While affected headline market value figures, depreciation and wider economic uncertainty does not change our positive medium term outlook that continues to be based on the migration of Chinese households up the income scale over the medium term. We believe this will help to offset the slowdown in volumes that results from increased market saturation, and will provide vendors with opportunities for selling a larger share of premium devices over the medium term, if the pitfall of overcapacity is avoided. The core scenario continues to be positive in the Q216 update, however we do recognise increased uncertainty and significant downside to demand were a hard landing to materialise in China.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD74.7bn in 2016 to USD87.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.0% in US dollar terms. Market maturity means growth will be slower than the decade to 2013, but rising incomes has upside for vendors to focus on higher price and margin PCs in the retail market.
AV S ales: USD28.9bn in 2016 to USD31.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 2.0%. AV segment expected to underperform as digital camera and mp3 demand continues to fall, but smart and Ultra-HD TV sets will provide a more positive upgrade dynamic for the largest component of the market.
Handset S ales: USD103.8bn in 2016 to USD115.2bn in 2020, a CAGR of 2.6%. Smartphone market saturation meant growth began to decelerate since 2014 but we expect handset sales to be the outperforming segment as shift towards flagships/premium smartphones raises the average selling price slightly 2016-2020.
|Economic Uncertainty Gets The Headlines But Income Growth Still The Medium Term Story|
|China Household Income Breakdown (USD) (2016-2020)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
The China Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in China.
BMI Research's China Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.