BMI View: W e downgraded the growth outlook for China's consumer electronics market in Q415 to reflect the slightly weaker economic outlook and the diminished growth prospects as a result of rapid rises in device penetration rate in several key categories such as smartphones, tablets and LCD/LED TV sets over recent years. As a result of relatively high device penetration rates in the context of China's GDP per capita, a product of the strong base of local manufactures right across the device spectrum, medium term growth will underperform the growth trajectory 2011-2014. Nonetheless the sheer scale of the market makes it central to vendor strategies and we believe there is scope for vendors to capitalise on economic trends to increase performance. For instance, broad based income growth and the boost from the package of economic and social reforms announced by the government in late 2013 should boost consumption over the medium - term and allow vendors to target higher margin premium device sales growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: USD78.3bn in 2014 to USD75.8bn in 2015, -3.2% in US dollar terms. Weaker than expected demand for notebooks and tablets reported by retailers in H115 resulted in a downgrade to the 2015 outlook.
AV sales: USD31.0bn in 2014 to USD30.1bn in 2015, -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded in the Q4 update, but we continue to highlight significant upside in the games console market following the removal of the 15-year ban on the sale of such devices in China in July 2015.
Handset sales: USD97.0bn in 2014 to USD100.5bn in 2015, +3.6% in US dollar terms. Smartphone market saturation means growth will decelerate from 2014, but despite this we expect handset sales to remain the outperforming device category again in 2015.
| Saturation Sees Growth Slow But Premium Opportunties Set To Broaden |
|China Consumer Electronics Spending By Segment|
| e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI |
The China Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in China.
BMI Research's China Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.