BMI View: T he outlook for c onsumer electronics spending growth in China is strong over the medium term , with broad based income growth enabling vendors to tap the relatively low penetration in key device categories . An additional boost is the package of economic and social reforms announced by the government in late 2013 should boost consumption , which had been a ffected to some extent by the cessation of government subsidies in 2013 . We forecast the market value will grow by 2.9 % in 2015 and we expect growth momentum will be maintained over the medium term with a CAGR of 3.5 % forecast for 2015-2019 .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: USD75.3bn in 2014 to USD78.3bn in 2015, +4.0% in US dollar terms. After a volume contraction in 2014 we expect tablets to grow in volume terms in 2015, but it is notebook sales that will account for the largest share of the overall market.
AV sales: USD31.0bn in 2014 to USD31.5bn in 2015, +1.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged in the Q3 update, and we continue to highlight significant upside in the games console market following the removal of the 13-year ban on the sale of such devices in China.
Handset sales: USD97.0bn in 2014 to USD99.5bn in 2015, +2.6% in US dollar terms. As a result of high smartphone penetration and intense price competition between vendors, we expect handset market value growth will continue to slow in 2015.
Key Trends And Developments
By 2014 the smartphone market in China was dominated by domestic brands - with Samsung Electronics the only vendor in the top five by unit market share (although it is worth remembering it is Apple that is still the leader in terms of smartphone market profitability). Xiaomi has captured the majority of the headlines during its rise to become the leading smartphone market vendor in China in Q214 through its strategy of undercutting global leaders' flagships on price, but still offering high...
The China Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in China.
BMI Research's China Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.