BMI View: We had downgraded out forecast in the previous report to reflect the general economic slowdown and the diminished growth prospects due to saturation in key categories such as smartphones, tablets and television sets. However, we hold a positive view of the Chinese consumer electronics market in 2016 and beyond as the sheer size of the market coupled with various rising consumer segments will lead to overall growth in the market. We believe vendors will be able to capitalize on economics trends and increase sales. Income growth and socioeconomic reforms announced by the government in late 2013 will boost consumption in the medium termand allow retailers to target higher margin premium device sales growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: USD77.5bn in 2015 to USD78.5bn in 2016, +1.3%% in US dollar terms. Weaker than expected demand for notebooks and tablets reported by retailers in H115 resulted in a downgrade to the 2015 outlook but demand will begin to resume in 2016.
AV sales: USD30.14bn in 2015 to USD30.72bn in 2016, +1.9%% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded in the Q4 update, but we continue to highlight significant upside in the games console market following the removal of the 15-year ban on the sale of such devices in China in July 2015 as these subsectors will begin to grow in 2016.
Handset sales: USD100.5bn in 2015 to USD101.8bn in 2016, +1.3% in US dollar terms. Smartphone market saturation meant growth began to decelerate since 2014 but we expect handset sales to remain outperforming as the market grows and a gadget-savvy population keeps buying and replacing smartphones.
|Saturation Sees Growth Slow But Premium Opportunties Set To Broaden|
|China Consumer Electronics Spending By Segment|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The China Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in China.
BMI Research's China Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.