BMI View: China has continued its assertion of dominance in the South China Sea over several incidents in the past year. This has raised tensions between its Asian neighbours as well as the U.S. and has even caused a standoff between militaries. Although China has begun to make political moves, deals and visits to ease these tensions, many speculate that these are more for show rather than sincere negotiations. Again, little is truly known about China's domestic situation due to its blockade against news leaving the country.
China's defensive position and plans are difficult to fully confirm due to China's secrecy on such matters. Like many aspects of its defence posture, China keeps its annual defence budget secret, nevertheless, it is possible to make an accurate estimate regarding what the country spends annually on defence. China is one of the worlds largest spenders on defence but its significant rivals, the U.S., claim that China still has the disadvantage in terms of size and quality of equipment.
As we enter 2015, China has had a tempestuous year with several incidents causing tensions and aggressive responses in regards to not only the South China Sea but China's alleged cyber attacks against American security firms.
China has reassessed and reasserted its friendship with Russia as they have agreed to perform naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea. This goes hand in hand with reports that China's naval strength (in terms of numbers) could overtake that of the U.S. by 2020. The tension between China and the U.S. has become increasingly tense over the past few years and this agreement with Russia has done nothing but add fuel to that fire. The agreement shows a joint venture that could further include military equipment from Russia and general production from China being exchanged; thereby helping to more extensively arm the two countries in the process, a worry that these arms will be used in China's sovereignty disputes.
In regards to other...
The China Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's China Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Chinese defence and security industry.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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