China Food & Drink Report

Published 15 May 2015

  • 106 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Food & Drink Report

BMI View: Over the next five years, China will see some of the fastest private consumption growth rates in Asia . We forecast average annual real private consumption growth of 8.0% over the next five years. This chimes with the rebalancing of the economy towards greater private consumption and, as such, will see private consumption growth remain strong, despite our forecasts for a slowdown in the overall economy's real growth rate to below 7.0% over the coming years. While the outlook for China's traditional economic growth drivers such as heavy industry and real estate construction remains cloudy, the outlook facing more consumer-focussed industries is relatively strong over the medium term.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 food consumption local currency = +7.5%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast between 2014 and 2019 = +9.1%.

  • 2015 beer volume sales = +6.1%; CAGR forecast between 2014 and 2019 = +5.6%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales (local currency) = +7.8%; CAGR forecast between 2014 and 2019 = +8.8%.

Key Industry Trends

Changes Ahead In Fast-Growing Infant Formula Sector : Infant formula sales in China will grow strongly over the next five years, supported by booming demand for premium products following food safety scandals and the revision of the one-child policy. Manufacturers need to adjust to shifting preferences in terms of distribution channels and stricter regulations on production and sales.

Focus On Snow Beer To Put Pressure On Competitors : We noted in April 2015 that China Resources Enterprise (CRE)'s decision to focus on its beer business will free up resources to premiumise its Snow Beer brand and expand its geographic footprint. In turn, this will boost margins and market position. On April 20, CRE announced that it would sell its non-beer business to its parent company, China Resources Holdings, for HKD28.0bn (USD3.6bn). We have previously argued that the Chinese food and drink sector (including grocery retail) has...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
14
Consumer Outlook
14
Food
15
Food Consumption
15
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2012-2019)
16
Confectionery
16
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2012-2019)
17
Drink
18
Hot Drinks
18
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
19
Alcoholic Drinks
20
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
21
Soft Drinks
22
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (China 2014-2019)
23
Mass Grocery Retail
26
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
27
Trade
28
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
29
Macroeconomic Forecast
30
Economic Activity
30
Labour Market The Chief Barometer
32
Zhou Rumours Add New Wrinkle To Reform Story
33
Industry Risk Reward Index
34
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q215
35
China Risk/Reward Index
39
Market Overview
40
Food
40
Food Production
40
Instant Noodles
40
Confectionery
41
Trade
41
Agriculture
41
Dairy
42
Organics
44
Drink
45
Soft Drinks
45
Hot Drinks
46
Alcoholic Drinks
47
Mass Grocery Retail
51
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (China 2006-2019)
52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (China 2006-2019)
53
Leading Players
53
Industry Trends And Developments
56
Food
56
Key Industry Trends And Developments
56
Drink
59
Key Industry Trends And Developments
59
Mass Grocery Retail
64
Key Industry Trends And Developments
64
Competitive Landscape
65
Table: Key Players In China's Food & Drink Sector
65
Table: Key Players In China's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
66
Company Profile
67
Hsu Fu Chi
67
Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
70
China Foods Ltd
73
Tsingtao
76
Wahaha
79
Kweichow Moutai
82
Sun Art Retail Group
84
Global Industry Overview
86
Table: TESCO - Selected Historical Financial Indicators
90
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
94
Demographic Forecast
96
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
97
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
97
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
98
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
98
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
99
Glossary
101
Food & Drink
101
Mass Grocery Retail
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Sector-Specific Methodology
104
Sources
104
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
105
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
106
Table: Weighting
107

The China Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's China Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc