BMI View: Data for 2015 and t he forecast for 2016 were revised down in the Q216 update but our core scenario continues to be for an expanding Chinese IT market and local industry. Despite heightened uncertainty we expect a stronger growth trend in 2016 as the hardware market gains momentum and envisage a CAGR of 8.1% for 2016-2020 as a whole. A hard landing is a downside risk, but under our core scenario we envisage broad based income growth, enterprise modernisation , and government support for the IT industry, and particularly emerging technologies such as cloud computing and the internet of things will drive market expansion over the medium term. The overall outlook is positive but opportunities will not be distributed evenly and challenges for foreign vendors operating in China as it pursues its national interest will remain a factor.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: CNY592.1bn in 2016 to CNY735.5bn in 2020, a CAGR of +5.2% in local currency terms. Market maturity means growth will be slower than the decade to 2013, but rising incomes has upside for vendors to focus on higher price and margin PCs in the retail market.
Software Sales: CNY100.8bn in 2016 to CNY164.5bn in 2020, CAGR of +11.9%. Rising labour costs and broader dynamic of enterprise modernisation will underpin increased software spending, while cloud delivery models offering lower costs and more flexibility will deepen the market.
IT Services Sales: CNY253.7bn in 2016 to CNY415.8bn in 2020, CAGR of +12.7%. Corporate investments and state support for development of Chinese cloud computing industry will drive IT services outperformance.
|Economic Uncertainty Only Small Drag On The IT Market|
|China IT Market Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The China Information Technology Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's China Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Chinese IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.