BMI View: A minor downgrade to the IT market forecast in Q415 to reflect a slightly weaker economic outlook has not materially altered our view that China will continue to record strong IT spending growth and IT sector development. The supportive and forward- looking policy environment combines with market fundamentals to provide strong growth prospects resulting from the size of the population, rising incomes, relatively low penetration of devices and solutions and a supportive policy environment . IT spending growth in China is expected to outperform on a regional and global basis, with a CAGR of 8.2 % forecast 2015-2019 . There is however downside risk, not least for foreign vendors operating in China where the policy environment favours local enterprises. Additional challenges include the diminishing pool of first-time buyers over the medium term, high levels of software p iracy, cyber security issues , intense competition for price-sensitive consumers and uncertainty generated by regulatory decisions, particularly in the rapidly developing cloud computing market . Nonetheless , we believe t he outlook is positive overall due to the factors mentioned above .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: CNY561.7bn in 2014 to CNY577.0bn in 2015, +2.7% in local currency terms. Forecast downgraded in Q415 update to reflect impact of slightly weaker economic environment, but sales will remain robust as tablet market stabilises after decline in 2014.
Software Sales: CNY100.1bn in 2014 to CNY106.6bn in 2015, +6.4% in local currency terms. Growth expected to dip in 2015 after OS upgrade demand was brought forward to 2014 by the withdrawal of Microsoft support for XP.
IT Services Sales: CNY209.0bn in 2014 to CNY235.2bn in 2015, +12.5% in local currency terms. Corporate investments and state support for development of Chinese cloud computing industry will mean increase in adoption rates will accelerate in...
The China Information Technology Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's China Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Chinese IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.