China Infrastructure Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Infrastructure industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BMI's Infrastructure Risk Reward Index, Market Overview and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Gain independent insight into the outlook for the infrastructure industry through BMI's 10 year forecasts
  • Understand the market through analysis of projects , investment plans and key players
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
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China Infrastructure Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : China's construction sector will be driven by an expansion in infrastructure investment over the five - year horizon, prompting us to upgrade our forecast for 2016 and 2017. Over the next decade however , growth will continue to slow in line with a broader shift to a consumption-led growth model.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We revised up our forecast for China's construction sector in 2016 and 2017 to 7.1% and 6.9% respectively as the fiscal stimulus and 13th Five Year Plan prompt an uptick in investment in the coming years. We maintain our expectation that growth will slow over the coming decade.

  • We have updated our data for the sub-sectors of the construction sector with new historic and forecast data to better reflect the volume of industry value generated from the construction of assets. Our new data indicates a larger importance of the roads & bridges segment in the transport sector and the water segment in the energy & utilities industry.

  • Infrastructure will be a bright spot in China's construction industry over the coming five years, supported by investment into airports, railways and water infrastructure in line with the goals of regional integration and addressing environmental and urbanisation challenges outlined in the 13 th Five Year Plan. Two major driving forces behind infrastructure value - power and roads & bridges, accounting for 45% and 20% respectively, will sustain robust growth over the same period.

  • China's residential building sector will see growth accelerate in 2016 (to 5%) as greater land supply is made available in an effort to rebalance supply and demand and dampen the overheating housing market. Over the longer term, the pace of growth in China's housing sector remains unsustainable and we therefore do not expect a major expansion in residential building.

Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (China 2015-2025)
2015 e 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Construction industry value, CNYbn 4,654.70 5,067.60 5,533.80 6,003.90 6,440.40 6,908.00 7,374.30 7,887.10 8,434.80 9,019.70 9,644.50
Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y 6.80 7.10 6.90 6.00 4.80 4.80 4.30 4.50 4.20 4.20 4.20
Construction Industry Value, % of GDP 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1

Risk/Reward Index

  • China scores 66.2 out of 100 in our latest Asia Pacific Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, which places the country 3rd among 21 regional markets.

  • The country has the third best score globally for Industry Rewards - 75 out of 100 - owing to its industry size, which is the largest globally and the strong growth rates. Strong government support and financing for infrastructure is also bolstering China's score for this component.

  • The country receives below regional average scores for Country Rewards and Industry Risks, which is indicative of a lack of competitiveness in the infrastructure market (dominated by state-owned firms) and high levels of corruption (which leads to issues with the transparency of the tendering process).

Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (China 2016)
Risk/Reward Index Rewards Industry Rewards Country Rewards Risks Industry Risks Country Risks
Source: BMI
66.2 70.1 75.0 60.9 57.0 40.0 68.3
BMI Industry View
7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (China 2015-2025)
7
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (China 2016-2016)
8
SWOT
9
Infrastructure SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
China - 13th Five-Year Plan: Innovation And Green Tech Prominent In Infrastructure
11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
19
Latest Updates
19
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2015-2025)
19
Structural Trends
20
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
25
Latest Updates
25
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2015-2025)
25
Structural Trends
26
Table: China: Top Five Transport Projects
32
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview
33
Latest Updates
33
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (China 2016-2026)
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
48
Residential/Non Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
49
Latest Updates
49
Table: Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data (China 2016-2026)
49
Structural Trends
50
2016-2025: Growth to Moderate
50
Table: Cities Continue To See House Prices Increases
52
Table: Changes To Property Taxes
52
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure
56
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
57
China - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
57
Risk/Reward Index
57
Rewards
57
Risks
58
APAC Infrastructure RRI: Affirming A Benign 2016 Outlook
59
Table: Asia Risk/Reward Index
65
Market Overview
66
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Regional Breakdown
71
Table: Policy Developments
73
Table: City Cluster Breakdown
73
Table: Key Financial Company Data
74
Company Profile
75
Sinohydro
75
China Communications Construction
79
Shanghai Construction Group
83
China Railway Group
86
China Railway Construction Corporation
90
13th Five-Year Plan
95
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points
95
Summary Of Contents
95
Chapter 1: Overview
96
Table: Targets
96
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development
97
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions
98
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector
99
Chapter 5: Industries
100
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy
101
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network
101
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation
102
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development
103
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection
104
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up
104
Others:
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Sector-Specific Methodology
107
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
112
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
113

The China Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's China Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.