BMI View : China's construction sector is undergoing a structural slowdown as the country shifts from an investment driven model , which focused on fiscal stimulus measures targeting the infrastructure sector. Opportunities remain substantial, however, given the country's large infrastructure deficit and ongoing reforms to spur private investment and improve regional connectivity through its One Belt One Road initiative.
Key Trends And Developments
We believe China's construction sector will continue to see a structural slowdown over the coming quarters, as Beijing steers the economy towards a more consumption-led growth, as opposed to an investment driven one. We forecast the country's construction sector to grow by an annual average of 4.7% between 2015 and 2019, a marked slowdown relative to the 9.3% registered for the period 2010-2014.
A moderation of the rise in Total Social Financing as a percentage of GDP, coupled with efforts to attract private sector investment through public-private partnerships reinforce our view that Beijing's investment model to boost economic growth is unsustainable.
Nonetheless, we believe the government will still rely on monetary and fiscal measures targeted at infrastructure development to prop up GDP growth, albeit less so compared to past years.
Despite the slowdown, China will remain an attractive market, with the government's Belt and Road initiative, providing a boost to the transport segment. We also see opportunities in the railway sector and expect continued investment in the sector during 2015.
We believe reforms are also a long-term positive for the sector and significant progress on reforms in the railway segment will bode well for the segment.
Such reforms will take years to gain traction due to three key factors: the time taken for private participation reforms to mature and be fully implemented, the general unattractiveness of infrastructure assets in China due to their elevated levels of leverage...
The China Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's China Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.