BMI View: With an average total gross premium growth forecast of 8.7% over the coming five years, w e have a positive long-term outlook for China ' s insurance sector . Non-life insurance, in particular, will capture the benefits of the rising disposable incomes of Chinese households, which will improve the affordability of non-life products - accordingly, we expect non-life insurance to account for nearly 50% of total written premiums in the sector (up from 47% in 2016). This will be due to an uptick in sales of health and motor insurance products, with solid growth also expected in personal accident and general liability insurance. The Chinese insurance market is expected to remain one of the strongest in the region, offering significant opportunities for investors.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, CIRC|
|Gross life premiums written, CNYbn||942.51||1,090.17||1,324.15||1,388.02||1,507.87||1,629.90||1,750.39||1,868.44|
|Gross life premiums written, CNY, % y-o-y||5.8||15.7||21.5||4.8||8.6||8.1||7.4||6.7|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||153.29||176.93||210.70||208.82||216.96||229.56||246.53||263.16|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||8.6||15.4||19.1||-0.9||3.9||5.8||7.4||6.7|
|Gross non-life premiums written, CNYbn||779.71||933.31||1,104.10||1,213.36||1,342.21||1,486.20||1,645.84||1,822.46|
|Gross non-life premiums written, CNY, % y-o-y||18.5||19.7||18.3||9.9||10.6||10.7||10.7||10.7|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||126.81||151.47||175.69||182.55||193.12||209.32||231.81||256.68|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||21.6||19.5||16.0||3.9||5.8||8.4||10.7||10.7|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Accounting for 53% of total written insurance premiums, China's life insurance segment is relatively larger (albeit not significantly) than the non-life segment. With low penetration and density rates, it is underdeveloped by most standards. In spite of this, the market does offer potential, as it is set to grow by roughly 7.0% annually on average. Life premiums should rise from CNY1.32bn in 2016 to CNY1.87bn in 2020.
The slightly smaller non-life insurance segment is set to outpace life insurance over the next five years in terms of growth prospects. We foresee gross non-life insurance premiums expanding by 10.5% annually on average - rising from CNY1.21bn in 2016 to CNY1.82bn in 2020. By 2020, non-life insurance should account for 49.4% of total written insurance premiums.
Access to the Chinese insurance market is still limited due to the various barriers installed by the regulator. A number of foreign companies have more recently overcome the barriers to entry by setting up partnerships with local players, eg, through means of joint ventures or other non-equity based agreements, allowing them to tap into established distribution networks and leverage the reputation of established local partners.
The China Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's China Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Chinese insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in China's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.