BMI View : Most trends within China's massive insurance sector are positive. Progressive liberalisation by the regulator is providing opportunities for companies in both the non-life and the life segments. Although the economy has slowed, it is still expanding at such a rate that the non-life segment can sustain mid-single digit growth in premiums over the medium term. Demographics of China mean that demand for annuities and other offerings of the life insurers should rise rapidly.
We forecast total gross premiums to slowdown in 2015 after growing by strong double-digit rates in 2014. The rate of expansion is being held back by price competition in the important motor vehicle segment. However, economic and demographic trends are consistent with steady rises in volumes in most sub-sectors. So too is the ongoing liberalisation of the insurance sector. Premiums will be held back slightly in USD terms by the anticipated weakness in the CNY. An additional challenge will likely be persistent price discounting in the motor vehicle sub-sector of the non-life segment. However, the overall rise in the economy, and a boost - to both segments - from the general liberalisation of the insurance sector, will underpin the rise in premiums.
Looking forward, we think that premiums will rise at a consistent rate through to 2019, though we expect the rate of expansion across most insurance lines to be relatively moderate compared with the double-digit growth trend seen in previous years. While economic growth will continue to support further urbanisation and, with it, growth in salaries and disposable income, we caution that the next phase of growth is likely to be steady rather than dynamic. Meanwhile, a further driver will be demographics, with the rapid growth of the country's retirement-age population stoking demand for health and life insurance products in particular. Indeed, as the working-age population continues to shrink as a result of the government's one-child policy...
The China Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's China Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Chinese insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in China's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.