BMI View: The well- publicised slowing of China ' s economy appears to have had little i mpact on the insurance sector; t o the extent that it has increased the perceived risks of the shadow finance system, it has also boosted the relative attractions of life insurance. Volumes are clearly continuing to rise in motor vehicle insurance and property insurance. Both segments a re very unusual in global terms, as they are very large and have the capacity for strong and steady growth, both through the forecast period and in later years.
|Gross life premiums written, CNYbn||890.81||942.51||1,090.17||1,171.79||1,295.60||1,422.84||1,553.04||1,685.94|
|Gross life premiums written, CNY, % y-o-y||2.4||5.8||15.7||7.5||10.6||9.8||9.2||8.6|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||141.22||153.29||176.93||179.78||188.73||206.21||225.08||244.34|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||5.0||8.6||15.4||1.6||5.0||9.3||9.2||8.6|
|Gross non-life premiums written, CNYbn||657.99||779.71||807.50||840.20||879.34||920.38||960.30||1,003.20|
|Gross non-life premiums written, CNY, % y-o-y||16.6||18.5||3.6||4.0||4.7||4.7||4.3||4.5|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||104.31||126.81||131.06||128.91||128.09||133.39||139.17||145.39|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||19.5||21.6||3.3||-1.6||-0.6||4.1||4.3||4.5|
Key Updates and Forecasts
We look for life and non-life premiums to rise by 10.6% and 4.7% this year. Both segments are, in world terms, extremely large and fairly rapidly growing. Steady growth should continue through forecast period and beyond. This represents a substantial opportunity for the long entrenched Chinese majors, but a much smaller one for foreign groups - who face a number of obstacles.
In the life segment, the favourable structural trends, such as the ongoing excess savings and the lack of adequate state-provided social security, have been reinforced by a number of positive developments. The slowing of China's economy has increased the risk profile of the country's massive shadow finance sector, reducing its attraction to investors and savers. Interest rates (and bond yields) have been low. Property markets have performed in a mixed fashion. The A share markets have been sold down brutally. All of these have added to the relative attraction of life insurance. The results for H115 of the leading Chinese life insurers have pointed to solid growth in premiums and value of new business (VONB) - although many of the majors have focused on boosting profitability rather than revenues and market share.
In the non-life segment, the slowing of the economy has probably, at the margin, had an impact on volumes. However, structural trends - such as the gross under-insurance of households and businesses and the tendency for particular sub-sectors to grow thanks to first time users (e.g. personal accident insurance) remain positive. For motor vehicle insurance, which accounts for over half of all activity in the segment, the increasing numbers of cars is boosting volumes. Downwards pressure on prices, though, is constraining growth in overall premiums for motor vehicle and property insurers.
The China Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's China Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Chinese insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in China's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.