BMI View: China ' s bearish crude oil output story will continue to remain in play, with output expected to see consistent declines of 1.0% per annum through to 2025. The outlook for natural gas remains positive, however, with both production and consumption set to experience healthy growth over the next decade. As its rising energy needs will not be met via production, China will become increasingly dependent on crude oil and natural gas imports. Meanwhile, relentless refinery runs among domestic refineries will ensure China ' s exports of refined fuels continue to grow, flooding the regional market and crimping margins.
|f = BMI forecast. Soure: National Sources, EIA, JODI, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||4,298.1||4,288.4||4,037.6||3,978.6||3,959.3||3,940.0||3,924.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||9,961.0||10,942.0||11,379.7||11,607.3||11,781.4||11,958.1||12,137.5|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||10,405.3||10,967.9||11,444.9||11,624.4||11,784.1||11,946.3||12,122.8|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||123.4||127.1||133.5||138.8||144.8||151.3||158.8|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||184.5||190.6||203.9||222.3||244.5||264.1||287.9|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
We forecast China's crude oil production to decline consistently over the next decade, as subdued oil prices, depleting conventional onshore resources and shifting investment focus to natural gas drag on overall output.
Consequently, the outlook for natural gas production is more positive, with average annual growth over 2016-2025 expected to come in at 5.0%. Longer-term growth will be driven by greater exploitation of unconventionals, such as shale and coal-bed methane.
The Chinese fuels market remains oversupplied, and though healthy demand for light distillates (gasoline and jet fuel) will continue to encourage refiners to maintain run rates. Excess supplies will be offloaded onto the exports market, weighing on prices and hitting margins.
Domestic refineries will shift production slates towards light distillates, in favour of domestic and regional demand dynamics, at the expense of middle-to-heavy distillates.
Under construction and proposed projects could nearly double China's regasification capacity by 2020, though these projects are subject to delays and cancellations given severe underutilisation of existing capacity and competition from pipeline gas imports.
The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
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Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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