China Oil & Gas Report

Published 31 July 2015

  • 205 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
China Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: China's crude stockpiling will remain strong as n ew storage facilities come online , even though the domestic fuels demand however will moderate substantially in the coming years. On the u pstream, CNPC's first major tight oil discovery on the Changqing field marks a milestone for Chinese technological capabilities as this is the first unconventional solo discovery by a Chinese NOC. Applying new technologies to unlock vast onshore (unconventional) and offshore (deepwater) resources is the most pertinent upside risk to our long - term oil and gas production forecast. However, rising tensions on the South China Sea will dampen progress for offshore deepwater exploration.

Headline Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,218.1 4,285.0 4,264.1 4,222.4 4,181.1 4,160.7 4,140.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 10,175.4 10,553.9 10,870.5 11,087.9 11,309.7 11,535.9 11,766.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 10,636.1 10,861.8 11,169.9 11,364.0 11,539.1 11,716.9 11,897.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 120.1 132.9 143.5 153.1 161.4 171.9 180.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 169.1 178.6 189.3 200.7 214.7 229.8 243.5

The main trends and developments we highlight for China's oil and gas sector are:

  • We forecast crude oil production to decline in 2015 as lower oil prices result in CNPC and Sinopec cutting their output targets. However, we highlight China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNC) growth in production for H115 as an upside risk to our forecast given that the firm is the third largest producer in China. We expect output to fall gradually over our forecast period from 4.26mn b/d in 2015 to 4.00mn b/d by 2024....

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2019-2024)
13
Table: Estimates For Resources In East China And South China Sea
14
Table: Offshore Discoveries In Recent Years
15
Table: Notable Offshore JVs
16
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
18
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
20
Upstream Projects
26
Table: Upstream Project Database
26
Upstream Production - Oil
28
Table: Oil Production (China 2013-2018)
28
Table: Oil Production (China 2019-2024)
28
Upstream Production - Gas
33
Table: Gas Production (China 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Production (China 2019-2024)
33
Major Gas Fields
36
Growth Sources
36
Forecast
37
Tight Gas
37
Coal-Bed Methane
39
Shale Gas
40
Coal-To-Gas (CTG)
43
Refining
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2013-2018)
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2019-2024)
45
Refined Fuels Consumption
47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (China 2013-2018)
48
Table: Refined Products Consumption (China 2019-2024)
48
Impact Of A Lower Oil Price Environment
51
Gas Consumption
55
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2013-2018)
55
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2019-2024)
55
Trade - Oil
59
Crude Oil Trade
59
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
59
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
59
Crude Oil Partners
61
Biggest Winners
63
Table: Exporters To China: The Winners
64
Losing Out
65
Table: Exporters To China: The Losers
66
Refined Oil Trade
67
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
67
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
68
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (China 2013-2018)
70
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (China 2019-2024)
70
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
71
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
71
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
71
LNG
73
LNG Deals
76
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals
76
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
77
Industry Risk Reward Index
77
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
77
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
78
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
78
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
81
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
81
China - Risk/Reward Index
84
China Upstream Index - Overview
84
China Upstream Index - Rewards
84
China Upstream Index - Risks
84
China Downstream Index - Overview
85
Market Overview
86
China Energy Market Overview
86
Overview
87
Regulatory Regime
88
Fiscal Regime
89
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
89
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
90
Table: China - Citygate Gas Prices By Province
91
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users
92
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users
93
Licensing Rounds
93
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation
93
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
95
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
96
Oil Refineries
96
Table: Refineries In China
96
Oil Storage Facilities
99
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserves
99
Table: China's Commercial Oil Storage Capacity
100
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
101
Oil Pipelines
102
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China
102
LNG Receiving Terminals
102
Table: LNG Terminals In China
103
Gas Storage Facilities
104
Gas Pipelines
105
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China
105
Coal-To-Gas (CTG) Plants
106
Table: Planned CTG Plants
106
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
107
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines
107
Competitive Landscape
108
Competitive Landscape Summary
108
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector
111
Table: Key Upstream Players
111
Table: Key Downstream Players
112
Company Profile
113
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
113
PetroChina
121
Sinopec
129
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
138
Shell (China)
150
BP China
155
ExxonMobil China
158
Husky Energy
160
Chevron
164
Total
167
Other Summaries
170
Regional Overview
175
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
175
Global Industry Overview
180
Global Energy Market Overview
180
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
180
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
183
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
184
Appendix
186
Asia - Regional Appendix
186
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
186
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
187
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
188
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
189
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
190
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
191
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
192
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
193
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
194
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
195
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
196
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
197
Glossary
198
Table: Glossary Of Terms
198
Methodology
200
Industry Forecast Methodology
200
Source
202
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
202
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
204
Table: Weighting
205

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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