China Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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China Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: China ' s upstream investment focus is shifting to natural gas, as the government's goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and preference for a cleaner energy mix reduce the appeal of investing in oil plays, which are becoming increasingly more costly to develop as onshore reserves mature. Despite slowing demand, China will remain a large consumer of both crude oil and refined fuels, driven by stockpiling and expansion of it s already siz e able vehicle fleet.

Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Soure: National Sources, EIA, JODI, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,298.1 4,277.1 4,027.0 3,948.7 3,871.9 3,834.2 3,797.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 10,550.0 11,014.0 11,454.6 11,683.7 11,917.3 12,155.7 12,398.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 10,806.3 11,299.9 11,757.6 12,000.1 12,236.1 12,452.6 12,636.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 123.4 127.1 133.5 138.8 144.8 151.3 158.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 184.5 191.0 204.3 222.7 245.0 264.6 288.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • China's crude oil production is set fall by 6.0% between 2016 and 2020, as low oil prices, natural declines at mature onshore fields and shifting policy focus in favour of natural gas drag on overall output.

  • In contrast, the outlook is more positive for gas, as we expect output to grow by more than 18.0% over the next five years, as SOEs step up gas developments to abide by national directives. Longer-term growth hinges on the realisation of China's significant unconventionals potential.

  • China is set to add about 1.6mn b/d of new refining capacity over the next five years, though heavy underutilisation of existing capacity indicates substantial scope for downsizing.

  • An apparent oversupply of refined fuels such as gasoline and diesel will hinder near-term crude imports, though stockpiling requirements and falling production will see off-take rebound in the medium-to-long term. The granting of additional import licenses to the independent teapot refineries will also provide a key support to demand.

  • Gradual liberalisation of the LNG trade market will allow smaller, independent players to participate in LNG imports, posing upside risk to our already buoyant gas imports outlook for China. However, the expected ramp-up in import volumes from Turkmenistan and Russia will see pipeline gas maintain its dominance over LNG.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
China - 13th Five Year Plan: NPC Sets Stage For Deeper Energy Sector Reforms
10
Upstream Exploration
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Key Offshore JVs
14
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
16
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
17
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2014-2019)
20
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2020-2025)
20
Upstream Projects
21
Table: China - Key Upstream Projects
21
Upstream Production - Oil
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Risks To Outlook
35
Table: Oil Production (China 2014-2019)
36
Table: Oil Production (China 2020-2025)
36
Upstream Production - Gas
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Growth Sources
39
Risks To Outlook
40
Table: Gas Production (China 2014-2019)
40
Table: Gas Production (China 2020-2025)
41
Refining
42
Latest Updates
42
Structural Trends
42
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2014-2019)
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2020-2025)
45
Refined Fuels Consumption
45
Latest Updates
45
Structural Trends
46
Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019)
48
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2020-2025)
48
Gas Consumption
49
Latest Updates
49
Structural Trends
49
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2014-2019)
51
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2020-2025)
51
Trade - Oil
52
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
52
Latest Updates
52
Structural Trends
52
Crude Oil Trade Partners
54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
55
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
55
Fuels Trade Forecasts
55
Latest Updates
55
Structural Trends
55
Fuels Trade Partners
57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
57
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
58
Latest Updates
58
Structural Trends
58
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
60
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
61
Industry Risk Reward Index
62
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
62
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
62
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
65
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
67
China - Risk/Reward Index
69
Upstream Index - Overview
69
Upstream Index - Rewards
69
Upstream Index - Risks
69
Downstream Index - Overview
70
Market Overview
71
China Energy Market Overview
71
Regulatory Structure
71
Fiscal Regime
72
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
72
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
74
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users
75
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users
75
Licensing Regime
76
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation
76
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
77
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
80
Oil Refineries
80
Table: Oil Refineries In China
80
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
83
Crude Oil Pipelines
84
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China
84
LNG Terminals
85
Table: LNG Terminals In China
85
Gas Storage Terminals
87
Gas Pipelines
87
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China
87
Coal-To-Gas Plants
88
Table: Planned CTG Plants
88
Coal-To-Gas Pipelines
89
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines
89
Competitive Landscape
90
Company Profile
92
CNOOC
92
Latest Updates
92
Table: Major Producing Areas
94
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
94
Operational Data
94
CNPC
95
Latest Updates
95
Table: Major Upstream Assets
96
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
97
Operational Data
97
Sinopec
98
Latest Updates
98
Table: Major Upstream Assets
99
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
100
Regional Overview
101
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook
101
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
114
Table: Weighting
115

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.