China Oil & Gas Report

Published 31 July 2015

  • 205 pages
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$1,295.00
China Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: China's crude stockpiling will remain strong as n ew storage facilities come online , even though the domestic fuels demand however will moderate substantially in the coming years. On the u pstream, CNPC's first major tight oil discovery on the Changqing field marks a milestone for Chinese technological capabilities as this is the first unconventional solo discovery by a Chinese NOC. Applying new technologies to unlock vast onshore (unconventional) and offshore (deepwater) resources is the most pertinent upside risk to our long - term oil and gas production forecast. However, rising tensions on the South China Sea will dampen progress for offshore deepwater exploration.

Headline Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,218.1 4,285.0 4,264.1 4,222.4 4,181.1 4,160.7 4,140.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 10,175.4 10,553.9 10,870.5 11,087.9 11,309.7 11,535.9 11,766.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 10,636.1 10,861.8 11,169.9 11,364.0 11,539.1 11,716.9 11,897.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 120.1 132.9 143.5 153.1 161.4 171.9 180.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 169.1 178.6 189.3 200.7 214.7 229.8 243.5

The main trends and developments we highlight for China's oil and gas sector are:

  • We forecast crude oil production to decline in 2015 as lower oil prices result in CNPC and Sinopec cutting their output targets. However, we highlight China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNC) growth in production for H115 as an upside risk to our forecast given that the firm is the third largest producer in China. We expect output to fall gradually over our forecast period from 4.26mn b/d in 2015 to 4.00mn b/d by 2024....

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2019-2024)
13
Table: Estimates For Resources In East China And South China Sea
14
Table: Offshore Discoveries In Recent Years
15
Table: Notable Offshore JVs
16
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
18
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
20
Upstream Projects
27
Table: Upstream Project Database
27
Upstream Production - Oil
29
Table: Oil Production (China 2013-2018)
29
Table: Oil Production (China 2019-2024)
29
Upstream Production - Gas
33
Table: Gas Production (China 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Production (China 2019-2024)
33
Major Gas Fields
35
Growth Sources
35
Forecast
36
Tight Gas
36
Coal-Bed Methane
38
Shale Gas
39
Coal-To-Gas (CTG)
42
Refining
44
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2013-2018)
44
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2019-2024)
44
Refined Fuels Consumption
47
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2013-2018)
47
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2019-2024)
47
Impact Of A Lower Oil Price Environment
50
Gas Consumption
54
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2013-2018)
54
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2019-2024)
54
Trade - Oil
58
Crude Oil Trade
58
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
58
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
58
Crude Oil Partners
60
Biggest Winners
62
Table: Exporters To China: The Winners
63
Losing Out
64
Table: Exporters To China: The Losers
65
Refined Oil Trade
66
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
66
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
67
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (China 2013-2018)
69
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (China 2019-2024)
69
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
70
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
70
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
70
LNG
72
LNG Deals
75
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals
75
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
76
Industry Risk Reward Index
76
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
76
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
77
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
77
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
79
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
79
China - Risk/Reward Index
82
China Upstream Index - Overview
82
China Upstream Index - Rewards
82
China Upstream Index - Risks
82
China Downstream Index - Overview
83
Market Overview
84
China Energy Market Overview
84
Overview
85
Regulatory Regime
86
Fiscal Regime
87
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
87
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
88
Table: China - Citygate Gas Prices By Province
89
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users
90
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users
91
Licensing Rounds
91
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation
91
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
93
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
94
Oil Refineries
94
Table: Refineries In China
94
Oil Storage Facilities
97
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserves
97
Table: China's Commercial Oil Storage Capacity
98
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
99
Oil Pipelines
100
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China
100
LNG Receiving Terminals
100
Table: LNG Terminals In China
101
Gas Storage Facilities
102
Gas Pipelines
103
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China
103
Coal-To-Gas (CTG) Plants
104
Table: Planned CTG Plants
104
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
105
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines
105
Competitive Landscape
106
Competitive Landscape Summary
106
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector
108
Table: Key Upstream Players
108
Table: Key Downstream Players
109
Company Profile
110
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
110
PetroChina
117
Sinopec
124
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
133
Shell (China)
144
BP China
148
ExxonMobil China
151
Husky Energy
153
Chevron
157
Total
160
Other Summaries
163
Regional Overview
168
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
168
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
168
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
171
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
172
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
176
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
177
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
179
Global Industry Overview
182
Oil Price Outlook
182
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
182
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
183
Appendix
190
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
190
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
190
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
191
Asia - Regional Appendix
192
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
192
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
193
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
194
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
195
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
196
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
197
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
198
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
199
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
200
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
201
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
202
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
203
Glossary
204
Table: Glossary Of Terms
204
Methodology
206
Industry Forecast Methodology
206
Source
208
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
208
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
210
Table: Weighting
211

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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