China Oil & Gas Report

Published 14 April 2015

  • 236 pages
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$1,295.00
China Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Although China will remain a major market for oil and gas, we note that opportunities will slowly reduce as the country's oil consumption growth slows. Gas opportunities, especially in LNG, will be limited by large long-term pipeline deals. Low oil prices will also slow crude oil production, though gas price reforms will help cushion some of this blow on gas output.

Headline Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,218.1 4,247.2 4,184.4 4,143.0 4,102.2 4,081.9 4,061.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 121.0 127.9 135.6 143.7 152.3 158.4 164.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 167.8 178.6 192.9 210.4 229.4 248.9 270.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 10,478.3 10,868.1 11,194.1 11,418.0 11,646.4 11,879.3 12,116.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 10,756.1 10,943.7 11,254.1 11,449.7 11,626.0 11,805.1 11,987.1

The main trends and developments we highlight for China's oil and gas sector are:

  • Lower oil prices will reverse China's yearly growth in oil production. We expect output to fall gradually over our forecast period from 4.2mn b/d in 2015 to 3.9mn b/d by 2024.

  • Gas production will remain on the uptrend, with new tight gas developments as the main driver of output growth. We have also moderated our already conservative outlook for shale gas production in light of the government's downward target revision.

  • Lower margins, a more competitive market and rising social risks will dampen interest in further expansion of China's refining segment. Thus beyond 2017, we expect to see fewer new refineries in the country as refining growth flatten out towards the end of our forecast period in 2024 .

  • Lower oil prices will see a brief increase in oil consumption growth in 2015, with the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2012-2018)
9
SWOT
10
Oil & Gas SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Upstream Exploration
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2012-2017)
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2018-2023)
12
Table: Estimates For Resources In East China And South China Sea
14
Table: Offshore Discoveries In Recent Years
14
Table: Notable Offshore JVs
15
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
18
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
20
Upstream Projects
27
Table: Upstream Project Database
27
Upstream Production - Oil
29
Table: Oil Production (China 2012-2017)
29
Table: Oil Production (China 2018-2023)
29
Upstream Production - Gas
33
Table: Gas Production (China 2012-2017)
33
Table: Gas Production (China 2018-2023)
33
Major Gas Fields
35
Growth Sources
35
Forecast
36
Tight Gas
36
Coal-Bed Methane
38
Shale Gas
39
Coal-To-Gas (CTG)
43
Refining
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2012-2017)
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2018-2023)
45
Refined Fuels Consumption
51
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2012-2017)
51
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2018-2023)
51
Gas Consumption
54
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2012-2017)
54
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2018-2023)
55
Trade - Oil
59
Crude Oil Trade
59
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2012-2017)
59
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2018-2023)
59
Crude Oil Trade Partners
60
Middle East Makes Up Shortfall Still
61
Brazil's Loss, Colombia's Gain
64
Outage Risks To Limit African Growth
66
Refined Oil Trade
69
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2012-2017)
69
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2018-2023)
70
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (China 2012-2017)
72
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (China 2018-2023)
72
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
73
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2012-2017)
73
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2018-2023)
73
LNG
75
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals
76
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
78
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
78
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
78
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
79
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
83
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
84
Downstream Support
85
China - Risk/Reward Ratings
88
China Upstream Rating - Overview
88
China Upstream Rating - Rewards
88
China Upstream Rating - Risks
88
China Downstream Rating - Overview
89
Market Overview
90
China Energy Market Overview
90
Overview/State Role
91
Government Policy
93
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
95
Licensing Rounds
98
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
99
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation
100
International Energy Relations
102
Table: Key Chinese Investment In African Upstream
116
Table: Key Chinese Downstream Investment In Africa
118
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
119
Oil Refineries
119
Table: Refineries In China
119
Coal-To-Liquids (CTL) Plants
127
Oil Storage Facilities
128
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserves
128
Table: China's Commercial Oil Storage Capacity
129
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
129
Oil Pipelines
130
LNG Receiving Terminals
133
Table: LNG Terminals In China
133
Gas Storage Facilities
140
Gas Pipelines
141
CBM Pipeline
144
Coal-To-Gas (CTG) Plants
144
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
145
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
146
Competitive Landscape
147
Competitive Landscape Summary
147
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector
148
Table: Key Upstream Players
149
Table: Key Downstream Players
149
Company Profile
150
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
150
PetroChina
156
Sinopec
163
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
171
Shell (China)
181
BP China
185
ExxonMobil China
188
Husky Energy
190
Chevron
193
Total
196
Other Summaries
199
Regional Overview
203
Asia Overview
203
Slower Oil Consumption Growth
203
Significant Oil Importer Still
206
Tightening In The Downstream
208
Gas Demand Growth To Outshine Oil
210
Gas Production And Export Rise
211
Asia To Absorb Gas Export Growth
213
A Hot Market For LNG
214
Strategies To Lower LNG Prices
217
Sino-Russian Gas Deal Promises Softer Prices
218
Global Industry Overview
219
Global Energy Market Overview
219
Appendix
225
Asia - Regional Appendix
225
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
225
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
226
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
227
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
227
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
228
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
229
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
230
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
231
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
232
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
232
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
233
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
234
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
236
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
236
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
237
Glossary
239
Table: Glossary Of Terms
239
Methodology
241
Industry Forecast Methodology
241
Source
243
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
243
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
245
Table: Weighting
246

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc