China Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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China Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: China's long-term crude oil and liquids output will remain on a firm downtrend as low oil prices slowdown exploration and render certain high-cost mature and unconventional plays uneconomic. Outlook is more positive for natural gas, as the government seeks to increase the share of gas in the total energy mix. This will prompt domestic firms to ramp-up gas output accordingly, ensuring that growth remains robust over the short-to-medium term. Crude demand will remain strong, driven by continued stockpiling activity, greater teapot imports and robust domestic demand for gasoline, jet fuel/kerosene and petrochemical feedstock, which will drive elevated run rates at existing refineries.

Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,298.1 4,277.1 4,152.1 4,091.4 4,071.5 4,051.7 4,035.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 10,582.3 10,952.7 11,171.7 11,395.1 11,566.1 11,739.6 11,915.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 10,874.3 10,990.9 11,468.9 11,682.9 11,843.4 12,006.3 12,183.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 123.4 127.1 133.5 138.8 144.8 151.3 158.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 184.5 191.0 204.3 222.7 245.0 264.6 288.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • China's crude oil and liquids output will fall by 12.0% between 2016 and 2025, as sustained oil price weakness prompt the country's largest oil producers to pare back upstream investment and disengage from high-cost production activities.

  • An ambitious gas production target is expected to lead a 5.0% increase in gas output over 2016, as domestic firms ramp-up production activities accordingly.

  • China is set to add about 1.6mn b/d of new refining capacity over the next five years, though heavy underutilisation of existing capacity indicates substantial scope for downsizing.

  • Following a substantial cut to wholesale gas prices for non-residential users back in November 2015, the government is mulling another price reform, this time establishing a single wholesale price for all users at non-residential levels. This will bring domestic prices more in line with market rates, and help to stimulate greater demand from the industrial and power sector consumers.

  • Crude imports will remain strong as continued stockpiling activities, refining capacity additions, awarding of import licenses to the teapot refineries and strong domestic demand for gasoline keep China's appetite for imports elevated.

  • Gradual liberalisation of the LNG trade market will allow smaller, independent players to participate in LNG imports, posing upside risk to our already buoyant gas imports outlook for China. However, the expected ramp-up in import volumes from Turkmenistan and Russia will see pipeline gas maintain its dominance over LNG.

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
9
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
12
China - 13th Five Year Plan: NPC Sets Stage For Deeper Energy Sector Reforms
12
Upstream Exploration
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends
15
Table: Key Offshore JVs
16
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
18
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
19
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2014-2019)
21
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2020-2025)
22
Upstream Projects
23
Table: China - Key Upstream Projects
23
Upstream Production - Oil
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Oil Production (China 2014-2019)
37
Table: Oil Production (China 2020-2025)
37
Upstream Production - Gas
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Growth Sources
40
Risks To Outlook
41
Table: Gas Production (China 2014-2019)
41
Table: Gas Production (China 2020-2025)
42
Refining
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2014-2019)
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2020-2025)
45
Refined Fuels Consumption
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019)
49
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2020-2025)
49
Gas Consumption
50
Latest Updates
50
Structural Trends
50
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2014-2019)
52
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2020-2025)
53
Trade - Oil
54
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
54
Latest Updates
54
Structural Trends
54
Crude Oil Trade Partners
56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
57
Fuels Trade Forecasts
57
Latest Updates
57
Structural Trends
57
Fuels Trade Partners
59
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
60
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
60
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
61
Latest Updates
61
Structural Trends
61
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
63
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
64
Industry Risk Reward Index
65
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
66
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
67
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
68
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
69
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
70
China - Risk/Reward Index
71
Upstream Index - Overview
71
Upstream Index - Rewards
71
Upstream Index - Risks
71
Downstream Index - Overview
72
Market Overview
73
China Energy Market Overview
73
Regulatory Structure
73
Fiscal Regime
75
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
75
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
76
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users
77
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users
77
Licensing Regime
78
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation
78
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
79
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
82
Oil Refineries
82
Table: Oil Refineries In China
82
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
85
Crude Oil Pipelines
86
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China
86
LNG Terminals
87
Table: LNG Terminals In China
87
Gas Storage Terminals
89
Gas Pipelines
89
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China
89
Coal-To-Gas Plants
90
Table: Planned CTG Plants
90
Coal-To-Gas Pipelines
90
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines
90
Competitive Landscape
91
Competitive Landscape Summary
91
Table: Key Upstream Players
92
Table: Key Downstream Players
92
Company Profile
93
CNOOC
93
Latest Updates
93
Table: Major Producing Areas
95
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
95
Operational Data
95
CNPC
96
Latest Updates
96
Table: Major Upstream Assets
97
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
98
Operational Data
98
Sinopec
99
Latest Updates
99
Table: Major Upstream Assets
100
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
101
Appendix
102
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points
102
Summary Of Contents
102
Chapter 1: Overview
103
Table: Targets
103
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development
104
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions
105
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector
106
Chapter 5: Industries
107
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy
108
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network
108
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation
109
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development
110
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection
111
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up
111
Others:
111
Regional Overview
113
Asia Regional Overview
113
Glossary
121
Table: Glossary Of Terms
121
Methodology
123
Industry Forecast Methodology
123
Source
125
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
125
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
127
Table: Weighting
128

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.