China Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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China Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We maintain our bearish outlook on China's long-term crude oil and liquids production, as low oil prices continue to prompt the country's largest producers to cut spending and pare back high-cost production. The outlook for gas is more positive, with greater exploitation of China's vast unconventionals potential and introduction of several policies in favour of gas-use expected to lead an uptrend in both gas production and consumption through to 2025. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, China will remain a siz e able consumer of energy, notably crude oil, which will be dictated by the pace of new storage construction over the coming quarters.

Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 4,285.0 4,264.1 4,222.4 4,181.1 4,160.7 4,140.4 4,124.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 123.4 127.1 131.6 138.7 147.7 154.8 162.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 184.5 191.0 204.3 222.7 245.0 264.6 288.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 10,553.9 10,870.5 11,087.9 11,309.7 11,535.9 11,766.6 11,884.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 10,861.9 11,191.6 11,386.4 11,561.7 11,740.0 11,921.1 12,105.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 42.50 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • China's crude oil and liquids output will fall by 6.1% between 2016 and 2025, as sustained oil price weakness prompt the country's largest oil producers to pare back upstream investment and disengage from high-cost production activities.

  • Firm political backing for unconventionals development, notably shale gas, will see China's natural gas production increase by an average of 4.0% over the next decade, though a prolonged period of low oil prices poses a pertinent risk.

  • China is set to add about 1.7mn b/d of new refining capacity through to 2020, with the government's ongoing reforms expected to invite greater foreign capital into the sector. Nevertheless, a refining overcapacity and a lacklustre demand growth outlook mean that risks of consolidation remain.

  • The slashing of gas prices for non-residential consumers in November 2015 has led us to upwardly revise our gas consumption forecasts, which we forecast to see average growth rate of 7.0% per annum through to 2025.

  • China demand for crude oil imports will continue to be dictated by the pace of storage capacity construction, regardless of macroeconomic headwinds. A huge ramp-up in refining capacity is set to alleviate the country's dependence on gasoline imports, though an upsurge in middle distillates exports (diesel, jet fuel) are set to exert downward pressure onto regional prices and depress margins.

  • Gradual liberalisation of the LNG trade market will allow smaller, independent players to participate in LNG imports, posing upside risk to our already buoyant gas imports outlook for China. However, the expected ramp-up in import volumes from Turkmenistan and Russia will see pipeline gas maintain its dominance over LNG.

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
9
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Offshore Discoveries In Recent Years
14
Table: Notable Offshore JVs
15
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
17
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
18
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2013-2018)
21
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2019-2024)
22
Upstream Projects
23
Table: China - Key Upstream Projects
23
Upstream Production - Oil
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Oil Production (China 2013-2018)
30
Table: Oil Production (China 2019-2024)
30
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Major Gas Fields
32
Growth Sources
33
Risks To Outlook
34
Table: Gas Production (China 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Production (China 2019-2024)
35
Refining
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2019-2024)
38
Refined Fuels Consumption
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (2013-2018)
42
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2019-2024)
43
Gas Consumption
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Risks To Outlook
45
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2013-2018)
45
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2019-2024)
45
Trade - Oil
46
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Crude Oil Trade Partners
47
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2013-2019)
49
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
49
Fuels Trade Forecasts
49
Latest Updates
49
Structural Trends
49
Fuels Trade Partners
51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
52
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
53
Latest Updates
53
Structural Trends
53
LNG Deals
54
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals
55
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2013-2018)
55
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2019-2024)
56
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
57
China - Risk/Reward Index
57
China Upstream Index - Overview
57
China Upstream Index - Rewards
57
China Upstream Index - Risks
57
China Downstream Index - Overview
58
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
58
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
59
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
62
Market Overview
65
China Energy Market Overview
65
Regulatory Regime
65
Fiscal Regime
66
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
66
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
67
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users
68
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users
68
Licensing Rounds
68
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation
69
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
70
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
72
Oil Refineries
72
Table: Refineries In China
72
Oil Storage Facilities
74
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserves
74
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
76
Oil Pipelines
77
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China
77
LNG Receiving Terminals
77
Table: LNG Terminals In China
78
Gas Storage Facilities
79
Gas Pipelines
80
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China
80
Coal-To-Gas (CTG) Plants
81
Table: Planned CTG Plants
81
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
82
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines
82
Competitive Landscape
83
Competitive Landscape Summary
83
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector
86
Table: Key Upstream Players
86
Table: Key Downstream Players
87
Company Profile
88
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
88
PetroChina
95
Sinopec
102
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
112
Shell (China)
124
BP China
128
ExxonMobil China
131
Husky Energy
133
Chevron
136
Total
139
Other Summaries
142
Regional Overview
147
Asia - Weak Oil Prices Will Hit Region's Long-Term O&G Production
147
Glossary
157
Table: Glossary Of Terms
157
Methodology
159
Industry Forecast Methodology
159
Source
161
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
161
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
163
Table: Weighting
164

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.