BMI View: China will become a leading medical research hub within the Asia Pacific region. This will be largely led by multinational pharmaceutical firms as they seek to tap the large talent pool within the country and develop treatments 'in China, for China'. The local industry, while still largely focused on generic drugs, has started to shift towards developing innovative treatments. Together with the partnerships formed with multinational drugmakers, investments into research by Chinese firms will grow and contribute to the country's flourishing drug discovery sector.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: CNY688bn (USD109bn) in 2015 to CNY768bn (USD116bn) by 2016; +11.7% in local currency terms and +5.6% in USD terms.
Healthcare: CNY3,965bn (USD631bn) in 2015 to CNY4,451bn (USD670bn) in 2015; +12.3% in local currency and +6.2% in USD terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||98.750||109.410||115.540||122.400||131.940||144.490||157.680|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.93||0.96||1.00||1.02||1.03||1.05||1.06|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||17.2||17.3||17.3||17.0||16.7||16.3||15.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||573.110||630.910||669.700||719.040||790.190||887.200||996.280|
In Q416, China is amongst the most attractive countries according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index. The country scores 62.6 out of 100 and is ranked sixth amongst 19 other Asia Pacific countries. Key to China's strong score is its high market expenditure, high sector value growth and policy continuity. The only limiting factors come from the country's business transparency and limited legal diligence.
In June 2016, Novartis opened a new research facility in Shanghai which costs USD1bn. This new center will be company's third major research center after Basel in Switzerland and Cambridge in Massachusetts. The company expects this new facility to 'ramp up' quickly in terms of drug discovery.
That same month, the Chinese government unveiled new guidelines to extend the family doctor system nationwide. With a pilot programme expected to be launched in 2016, the government aims to have a family doctor contracted to every household by 2020.
In July 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission announced reforms to medical pricing in the country. According to guidelines released, hospitals will be allowed to charge more for registration fees, operations, nursing care and traditional Chinese medicine.
BMI Economic View
The PBoC has taken a long pause in easing its broad benchmark interest rate and reserve requirement ratio, but will continue to ease policy via less conventional measures such as its medium-term lending facility (MLF). While we are paring back our expectations for cuts to the PBoC's 1-year benchmark rate (now forecasting a single 25bps cut to 4.10% by the end of 2016), we believe that the central bank will continue to pressure lending rates lower via the MLF.
BMI Political View
China has made notable progress with economic reforms over the past two years despite considerable turbulence, and the 13th five-year plan suggests that further advances will be made in the areas of fiscal rationalisation, financial market maturation, and the culling of overcapacity. However, we retain our assertion that SOE reforms will continue to broadly disappoint due to political, social, and economic considerations.
The China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the China pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for China, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.