BMI View: The policy changes affecting China's pharmaceutical market will not deter the growth trajectory of local drugmakers. While competition has heightened due to the new tendering system, the system will remain more favourable to Chinese drugmakers as their product portfolios are focused on low cost generic drugs. In addition, their strength in the rural regions of China will become an advantage as the expansion of health insurance to cover chronic illnesses and the government's move to redirect patient flow to local facilities gives rise to strong commercial opportunities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: CNY608bn (USD99bn) in 2014 to CNY688bn (USD105bn) by 2015; +13.0% in local currency terms and +6.8% in USD terms. This is a downgrade from the previous quarter.
Healthcare: CNY3,594bn (USD583bn) in 2014 to CNY4,079bn (USD649bn) in 2015; +13.5% in local currency and +7.3% in USD terms.
In Q415, China is amongst the most attractive countries according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index. The country scores 64.4 out of 100 and is ranked sixth amongst 19 other Asia Pacific countries. Key to China's strong score is its high market expenditure, high sector value growth and policy continuity. The only limiting factors come from the country's business transparency and limited legal diligence.
Key Trends & Developments
In June 2015, the State Council issued a circular announcing that it will seek to speed up the development of private medical agencies. In particular, the new policies and measures will seek to promote the scale and level of private healthcare providers to better meet the needs of the public.
In July 2015, Chinese authorities announced that they will boost the country's basic medical policy to provide extra coverage for critical illnesses. According to Liang Wannian, deputy director of Bureau of Medical Reform Leading Group, noted that as of April 2015, 31 provinces and cities had already launched...
The China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the China pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for China, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.