China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Multinational drugmakers will face significant challenges in maintaining double-digit revenue growth rates in China. Reforms to the healthcare sector will continue over the coming quarters as authorities seek to expand healthcare access while containing costs in a macro environment that has seen economic growth slow. Provincial nuances will become more pertinent as the economic trajectories of each diverge and bidding processes differ. Collectively, this demands new approaches by multinational drugmakers to the China pharmaceutical market, integrating the macro-economic risk factors with a province level approach.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CNY688bn (USD109bn) in 2015 to CNY766bn (USD115bn) by 2016; +11.5% in local currency terms and +5.4% in USD terms.

  • Healthcare: CNY3,953bn (USD629bn) in 2015 to CNY4,424bn (USD665bn) in 2015; +11.9% in local currency and +5.8% in USD terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 98.751 109.406 115.336 122.102 131.538 144.099 157.310
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 17.2 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.5 16.0
Health spending, USDbn 573.114 629.028 665.584 712.619 781.222 875.305 981.227

Risk/Reward Index

In Q117, China is amongst the most attractive countries according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index. The country scores 62.6 out of 100 and is ranked sixth amongst 19 other Asia Pacific countries. Key to China's strong score is its high market expenditure, high sector value growth and policy continuity. The only limiting factors come from the country's business transparency and limited legal diligence.

Latest Updates

  • In August 2016, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee reviewed and approved the Healthy China 2030 (Jian Kang Zhong Guo 2030) policy. While details have yet to be fully announced, the key themes of institutional reform and innovation echo the country's 13th Five-Year Plan. Areas of focus were also mentioned and include promoting healthy lifestyles, strengthen health services, improve preventatitive medicine and develop health-related industries.

  • In September 2016, a survey of 1,622 clinical trials in China by the regulators noted that more than 80% of trials used fabricated data. Several of the new drug applications were also found to be a combination of existing medicines with the data manipulated to match what firms wanted to find.

  • In October 2016, the US Securities and Exchange Commission noted that GlaxoSmithKline has agreed to pay USD20mn to settle chargers that its Chinese subsidiary engaged in bribery schemes. The statement noted that from 2010 to June 2013, employees of the firm and Sino-American Tianjin Smith Kline & French Laboratories, engaged in transactions and schemes to corruptly transfer things of value to foreign officials in China to increase pharmaceutical sales.

BMI Economic View

Amid an economy that is still burdened by excess capacity in the industrial sector and a housing inventory overhang, we expect the PBoC to continue easing monetary conditions through targeted methods, and we believe that the ongoing bull run in bonds since 2014 will remain intact.

BMI Political View

The Chinese government's progress in supply-side reforms, including the reduction of overcapacity in the coal and steel sectors, was uneven in H116, and we believe that progress is unlikely to be smooth over the coming years due to political and social considerations. However, we expect the central government to stay highly committed in cutting excess capacity, and note that success will require co-operation from various stakeholders, particularly the local government. Meanwhile, the restructuring of debt at these SOEs will be detrimental for banks, as they have to act under the discretion of the government.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
26
China
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (China 2014-2020)
32
Industry Risk/Reward Index
33
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016
33
China Risk/Reward Index
40
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Regulatory Review
42
Regulatory Regime
42
Table: Important China GMP Deadlines
46
Intellectual Property Issues
48
Pricing Regime
54
Reimbursement Regime
56
China - 13th Five-Year Plan To Reinforce Existing Trends
59
Market Overview
63
Healthcare Sector
63
Table: Healthcare Resources (China 2010-2015)
66
Table: Healthcare Personnel (China 2010-2015)
66
Table: Healthcare Activity (China 2010-2015)
67
Research & Development
74
Table: Selected List Of MNC With R&D Bases In China
75
Table: Selected List Of Collaboration In R&D Operations In China
78
Clinical Trials
79
Epidemiology
80
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In China
83
Competitive Landscape
84
Research-Based Industry
84
Table: Companies Represented by RDPAC
84
Table: Multinational Market Activity
85
Generic Drugmakers
87
Pharmaceutical Distribution
87
Company Profile
89
AstraZeneca
89
Bayer
94
China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group
98
Eli Lilly
100
GlaxoSmithKline
104
North China Pharmaceutical Corporation
109
Novartis
112
Merck & Co
116
Merck KGaA
119
Pfizer
122
Roche
125
Sanofi
129
Shanghai Pharmaceutical
133
Sinopharm
136
13th Five Year Plan
139
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points
139
Summary Of Contents
139
Chapter 1: Overview
140
Table: Targets
140
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development
141
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions
142
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector
143
Chapter 5: Industries
144
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy
145
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network
145
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation
146
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development
147
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection
148
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up
148
Others:
148
Demographic Forecast
150
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
151
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
151
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
152
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
152
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
153
Glossary
155
Methodology
157
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
157
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
157
Notes On Methodology
158
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
159
Index Overview
160
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
160
Indicator Weightings
161

The China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the China pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for China, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.