China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Ongoing challenges facing multinational pharmaceutical firms in China will persist into 2016. This includes pricing pressures on off-patented pharmaceuticals, as authorities look to meet the unmet medical need in the country by expanding access to medicines while curbing rising healthcare costs. Long and uncertain drug approval times will also remain a factor impinging on sales growth, as time is needed for authorities to fully develop and implement regulatory reforms.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CNY687bn (USD109bn) in 2015 to CNY770bn (USD115bn) by 2016; +12% in local currency terms and +6% in USD terms.

  • Healthcare: CNY4,023bn (USD640bn) in 2015 to CNY4,628bn (USD686bn) in 2015; +13.5% in local currency and +11.2% in USD terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 98.750 109.410 115.850 125.330 138.000 152.300 167.300
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.2 15.7 15.2
Health spending, USDbn 575.500 640.270 686.960 756.500 852.440 967.750 1,098.930

Risk/Reward Index

In Q316, China is amongst the most attractive countries according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index. The country scores 62.6 out of 100 and is ranked sixth amongst 19 other Asia Pacific countries. Key to China's strong score is its high market expenditure, high sector value growth and policy continuity. The only limiting factors come from the country's business transparency and limited legal diligence.

Latest Updates

  • In January 2016, IHH healthcare announced that it would set up a 350-bed hospital in Chengdu China. According to the firm, this will be a multi-disciplinary hospital and upon completion, the facility will serve a total population of 148mn residents in the region.

  • In February 2016, AstraZeneca announced a licensing agreement with China Medical System Holdings for the commercialisation rights to Plendil (felodipine). According to Mark Mallon, Executive Vice President at AstraZeneca, this commercial collaboration supports their strategy of working with a local partner to maximise the value of their medicines in China.

  • In April 2016, China's State Council affirmed that the government must enact healthcare reform. Under the new healthcare reform discussed, the government would be working on expanding the number of cities currently engaged in urban public hospital reform to 200 from the original 100 pilot cities.

BMI Economic View

The Jing-Jin-Ji integration plan, which aims to promote sustainable growth and help first tier cities climb up the value chain, will have a positive impact on economic development in the region over the coming years. Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will benefit from transport integration and industry upgrading. However, environmental concerns and protectionism will continue to pose risks to this progress.

BMI Political View

Myriad layers of bureaucracy and the sheer size and complexity of China mean that local governments are given a significant degree of flexibility when implementing the central government's policies. Indeed, the close links between local governments, bureaucrats and state-owned enterprises suggest that local authorities can actively thwart Beijing's will if it is deemed to be harmful to local objectives. The effectiveness of central government policy is therefore largely dependent on the interaction between these three entities at all levels of local government.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (China 2014-2020)
30
Industry Risk/Reward Index
31
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
31
China Risk/Reward Index
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Regulatory Review
39
Regulatory Regime
39
Table: Important China GMP Deadlines
43
Intellectual Property Issues
45
Pricing Regime
50
Reimbursement Regime
56
Market Overview
60
Healthcare Sector
60
Table: Healthcare Resources (China 2010-2015)
63
Table: Healthcare Personnel (China 2010-2015)
63
Table: Healthcare Activity (China 2010-2015)
64
Research & Development
71
Table: Selected List Of MNC With R&D Bases In China
72
Table: Selected List Of Collaboration In R&D Operations In China
76
Clinical Trials
77
Epidemiology
78
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In China
81
Competitive Landscape
82
Research-Based Industry
82
Table: Companies Represented by RDPAC
82
Table: Multinational Market Activity
83
Generic Drugmakers
84
Table: Top 20 China/Hong Kong-Based Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation
85
Pharmaceutical Distribution
85
Company Profile
87
AstraZeneca
87
Bayer
92
China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group
96
Eli Lilly
98
GlaxoSmithKline
102
North China Pharmaceutical Corporation
107
Novartis
110
Merck & Co
114
Merck KGaA
117
Pfizer
120
Roche
123
Sanofi
127
Shanghai Pharmaceutical
131
Sinopharm
134
Demographic Forecast
137
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
138
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
138
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
139
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
139
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
140
Glossary
142
Methodology
144
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
144
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
144
Notes On Methodology
145
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
146
Index Overview
147
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
147
Indicator Weightings
148

The China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the China pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for China, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.