China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The merger of China's new rural cooperative medical scheme with its urban residents basic medical insurance scheme will reshape the country's healthcare landscape. This will have important ramifications for the pharmaceutical industry as reimbursement models shift correspondingly. While this perpetuates the shifting dynamics within China in 2016, the long-term impacts are positive - expanding the depth of coverage to more patients and improving the system's financial sustainability.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CNY687bn (USD107bn) in 2015 to CNY770bn (USD115bn) by 2016; +12% in local currency terms and +7.1% in USD terms.

  • Healthcare: CNY4,078bn (USD639bn) in 2015 to CNY4,628bn (USD693bn) in 2015; +13.5% in local currency and +9.6% in USD terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 98.751 107.806 115.459 125.433 138.112 152.429 167.440
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.95 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.12
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 16.9 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.0 15.5 15.0
Health spending, USDbn 583.309 639.502 693.422 766.894 864.203 981.164 1,114.245

Risk/Reward Index

In Q216, China is amongst the most attractive countries according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index. The country scores 64.0 out of 100 and is ranked sixth amongst 19 other Asia Pacific countries. Key to China's strong score is its high market expenditure, high sector value growth and policy continuity. The only limiting factors come from the country's business transparency and limited legal diligence.

Latest Updates

  • In December 2015, the government announced that it intends to merge the country's public health insurance schemes for rural and urban residents.

  • That same month, political advisors proposed to the Chinese government that red tape affecting the development of generic drugs be cut and that quality standards be strengthened.

  • In January 2016, Johnson & Johnson announced that it has licensed rights from Sino Biopharmaceutical to develop, manufacture and sell a treatment that focuses on liver diseases.

BMI Economic View

China's real GDP growth slowed to 6.9% y-o-y in Q315, its slowest pace since Q109, as manufacturing and construction activity continued to act as a drag. However, strong growth in the tertiary sector suggests that the country's nascent rebalancing is making progress, and robust household income growth has also been a silver lining to China's slowdown.

BMI Political View

Chinese President Xi Jinping's status as China's most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping stems from his ability to elicit broad-based support from various factions and powerbases within the party.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economy
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
25
Patented Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
27
Generic Drug Market Forecast
28
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
29
OTC Drug Market Forecast
30
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2011-2019)
32
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (China 2013-2019)
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Economic Analysis
37
Industry Risk Reward Indices
41
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
41
China Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In China
53
Healthcare Sector
54
Table: Healthcare Resources (China 2009-2014)
57
Table: Healthcare Personnel (China 2009-2014)
57
Table: Healthcare Activity (China 2009-2014)
58
Research And Development
65
Table: Selected List Of MNC With R&D Bases In China
66
Table: Selected List Of Collaboration In R&D Operations In China
72
Clinical Trials
74
Biotechnology Sector
75
Regulatory Development
82
Regulatory Regime
82
Table: Important China GMP Deadlines
86
Intellectual Property Issues
88
Pricing Regime
93
Reimbursement Regime
104
Competitive Landscape
108
Research-Based Industry
108
Table: Companies Represented by RDPAC
108
Generic Drugmakers
109
Table: Top 20 China / Hong Kong-Based Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation
110
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
110
Recent Developments
112
Traditional Chinese Medicine
112
Company Profile
116
AstraZeneca
116
Bayer
121
China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group
125
Eli Lilly
127
GlaxoSmithKline
131
North China Pharmaceutical Corporation
136
Novartis
139
Merck & Co
144
Merck KGaA
148
Pfizer
151
Roche
155
Sanofi
160
Shanghai Pharmaceutical
164
Sinopharm
168
Demographic Forecast
171
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
172
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
172
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
173
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
173
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
174
Glossary
176
Methodology
178
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
178
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
178
Notes On Methodology
179
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
180
Index Overview
181
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
181
Indicator Weightings
182

The China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the China pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for China, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.