China Power Report

Published 12 January 2015

  • 85 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Power Report

BMI View: Our Country Risk team has slightly upgraded our 2015 real GDP growth forecast for China, but our outlook for the power sector remains relatively stable. This is because we continue to expect growth in electricity generation and consumption to slowdown in 2015. In terms of electricity generation, the country's growing pollution woes have prompted the central and state-level governments to try and reduce coal-fired generation while encouraging cleaner and costlier alternatives, as reflected in a revised energy strategy that was published by the State Council in November 2014. We note, however, that t hese alternatives are generally not as scalable or have as short a turnaround time as coal projects. As a result, greater use of these alternatives will lead to a slowdown in generation growth. On the consumption end, we believe that the hangover effects of China's economic stimulus are yet to be felt, and cooling credit growth is likely to reveal these effects over the coming quarters.

In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation over the coming years, as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade. Energy poverty is a key concern in the country and coal will remain the only realistic option for providing cheap and abundant energy for the local population over the medium term. Yet, rising coal prices are once again a key threat to the profitability of power generation companies operating in the domestic segment and Chinese utilities have placed collective pressure on the government to moderate proposed restrictions on imported coal, highlighting the difficulties China has in balancing the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
China Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
China Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
16
Electricity Consumption
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
26
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Asia Pacific Power Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
China Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
37
Market Overview
38
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Regulation And Competition
38
Sustainable Energy Policies
40
Pricing
44
China Power Projects Database
45
Table: China Major Projects - Power
45
Competitive Landscape
64
Huaneng Power International
64
China Huaneng Group
65
China Datang Corporation
65
China Huadian Corporation
66
China Guodian Corporation
66
China Power Investment Corporation
67
China Southern Power Grid
67
State Grid Corporation
67
Company Profile
68
Huaneng Power International
68
Regional Overview
71
Asia Pacific Power Regional Overview
71
Table: Fact Box: Key Strategies Of Fourth Basic Energy Plan
73
Glossary
76
Table: Glossary Of Terms
76
Methodology
77
Methodology And Sources
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sources
80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
80
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
83

The China Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The China Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks China's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc