China Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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China Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: This quarter we have further revised our forecasts as China's power continue s to be affected negatively by t he ongoing economic slowdown in China and the government's continued efforts to tackle coal consumption. We believe coal-fired power generation will undergo a decline over 2016 and 2017, and then register only slight annual increases thereafter. The outlook for power consumption is similarly muted, with annual average growth rates of 3% between 2016 and 2025, as China's economy shifts away from power-intensive manufacturing.

Headline Power Forecasts (China 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: GWEC, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 5,310.830 5,326.980 5,350.270 5,550.250 5,763.720 5,969.850 6,175.540
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 5,010.5 5,033.0 5,050.6 5,252.7 5,462.8 5,664.9 5,866.0
Capacity, Net, MW 1,488,653.0 1,581,064.0 1,691,464.3 1,779,577.9 1,868,655.2 1,963,965.4 2,056,009.5

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas, and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade. China's power mix continues to evolve, in line with the slowdown in China's economy - which is curbing power consumption - and the ongoing efforts by the Chinese government to tackle pollution, which is resulting in reduced coal consumption. This, coupled with the gain in prominence of cleaner fuels, such as gas, nuclear power and renewable energy, is having a significant impact on China's power sector. Over our forecast period, we expect coal-fired power generation to register just a 2% increase from 2015 to 2025, while other fuels will post much higher growth levels - albeit from a lower base. Natural gas and nuclear power will both increase by over 300% and non-hydro renewables will more than double. Oil power will decline as it is gradually phased out of the power mix over the next decade.

  • China's role in regional power markets across the world will continue to expand over 2016, with both developed and developing markets targeted for investment. Chinese companies will be most active in the coal, hydropower, nuclear and renewables equipment industries, gaining market share in these sectors.

  • By the end of our forecast period in 2025, we expect nuclear capacity in China to surge from an estimated 26.7 gigawatts (GW) in 2015 to over, as the mammoth pipeline of reactors that are planned, proposed or under construction gradually comes online ( see 'Nuclear Technology Footprint To Expand', April 15). This will make China one of the largest nuclear markets globally in terms of total installed capacity.

  • Our view that China will maintain its position as the fastest growing and largest market, in terms of installed renewables capacity globally, remains in play. Capacity installations continue to soar and the government remains strongly committed to expanding its domestic renewables industry, in line with the government's energy diversification strategy. According to our non-hydro renewables capacity forecasts, China will dominate the global renewables market, contributing over 30% to the global total in 2025, with almost triple the installed capacity of the world's second largest market, the US.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (China 2015-2021)
7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
China Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2015-2020)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2020-2025)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
China Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
25
Electricity Consumption
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
30
Industry Risk/Reward Index
31
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead
31
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
38
China Power Risk/Reward Index
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Key Policies And Market Structure
41
Regulation And Competition
41
Sustainable Energy Policies
43
Pricing
46
China Power Projects Database
48
Table: China - Top 10 Power Projects By Capacity
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Huaneng Power International
50
China Huaneng Group
51
China Datang Corporation
51
China Huadian Corporation
51
China Guodian Corporation
52
State Power Investment Corporation
52
China Southern Power Grid
53
State Grid Corporation
53
Company Profile
54
Huaneng Power International
54
Regional Overview
57
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King
57
13th Five-Year Plan
64
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points
64
Summary Of Contents
64
Chapter 1: Overview
65
Table: Targets
65
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development
66
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions
67
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector
68
Chapter 5: Industries
69
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy
70
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network
70
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation
71
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development
72
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection
73
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up
73
Others:
73
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
76
Methodology And Sources
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sources
79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
81

The China Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The China Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks China's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).