China Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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China Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: This quarter, we have upwardly revised our gas-f ired power generation forecasts to take into account the gas pricing reform implemented by the government, which will see materially lower gas prices for the country's businesses and industrial users. In turn, this will serve to marginally reduce coal-fired generation in the power mix - in line with government efforts to curb coal use.

Headline Power Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: GWEC, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 5,332.989 5,395.318 5,592.050 5,810.893 6,009.057 6,259.806 6,539.895
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 4,971.6 5,071.1 5,248.5 5,458.5 5,682.3 5,909.6 6,175.5
Capacity, Net, MW 1,383,317.3 1,497,849.5 1,595,349.2 1,699,644.7 1,790,507.2 1,885,755.1 1,991,326.6

Key Trends And Developments

  • In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas, and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade.

  • We believe China's push to reduce its carbon emissions profile continues unabated; highlighted in late August by an agreement between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and China's National Energy Administration (NEA) to jointly develop 'clean coal' technologies for commercial use. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) will pave the way for both governments to collaborate on clean coal technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) projects. Despite our belief that clean coal technology, such as CCUS, remains a long way from being commercially viable, due to the high costs and the immaturity of the technology, it still sends a strong signal regarding China's commitment to reducing pollution.

  • China's slowing economy is having a greater impact on power consumption than we initially expected. Our long-held view that structural weaknesses in the Chinese economy will slow GDP growth continues to play out - and we had already factored this into our power consumption forecasts. However, data reports from the first half of 2015 suggest that electricity consumption increased by just 1.3% y-o-y, much lower than our 2015 forecast for GDP growth of 6.7%. Typically power consumption has been a strong barometer of economic growth, and the two indicators have previously aligned relatively closely. However, they now appear to be decoupling - with power consumption falling faster - most likely due to increased efficiency in the power sector.

  • China's role in regional power markets across the world will continue to expand over 2016, with both developed and developing markets targeted for investment. Chinese companies will be most active in the coal, hydropower, nuclear and renewables equipment industries, gaining market share in these sectors.

  • Our view that China will maintain its position as the fastest growing and largest market, in terms of installed renewables capacity globally, remains in play. Capacity installations continue to soar and the government remains strongly committed to expanding its domestic renewables industry, in line with the government's energy diversification strategy. According to our non-hydro renewables capacity forecasts, China will dominate the global renewables market, contributing over 30% to the global total in 2024 - with almost triple the installed capacity of the world's second largest market, the US.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
China Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2014-2019)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2019-2024)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
China Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2019-2024)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2019-2024)
16
Electricity Consumption
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2019-2024)
24
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2019-2024)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2019-2024)
26
Industry Risk/Reward Index
28
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index
28
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
33
China Power Risk/Reward Index
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Market Overview
36
Key Policies And Market Structure
36
Regulation And Competition
36
Sustainable Energy Policies
38
Pricing
41
China Power Projects Database
43
Table: China Major Projects - Power
43
Competitive Landscape
60
Huaneng Power International
60
China Huaneng Group
61
China Datang Corporation
61
China Huadian Corporation
61
China Guodian Corporation
62
China Power Investment Corporation
62
China Southern Power Grid
63
State Grid Corporation
63
Company Profile
64
Huaneng Power International
64
Regional Overview
67
Shifting Fuel Dynamics In Asia Power
67
Glossary
73
Table: Glossary Of Terms
73
Methodology
74
Methodology And Sources
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sources
77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
79

The China Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The China Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks China's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).