China Real Estate Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Real Estate Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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China Real Estate Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: China ' s property market is suffering from oversupply due to years of high levels of development. Rising demand is not sufficient to drive up rental rates. The government is restricting development activity in 2015 and 2016 in the retail sector with the aim of balancin g supply and demand. E-commerce firms and foreign entrants to the markets are expected to be key drivers of demand.

China's real GDP growth has been falling since 2010 from a high of 10.6% to 6.7% in 2015 and is forecast to continue falling to 5.9% in 2016. BMI forecasts the growth in real GDP to remain at this level for the foreseeable future, coming in at a slower than normal rate for the country. Within China's economy, we highlight Shanghai and Beijing as particular centresof business and finance, which are also strongly connected to the rest of the global economy. Wuhan and Shenzhen, meanwhile, are centres of industry, construction and services. Wuhan is also the fastest growing city within China, with an average forecasted annual growth rate from 2006 to 2020 of 2.87%.

We expect the office sector to see a slight drop in its rental rates across the country due to the oversupply of space. A large volume of properties are expected to be delivered in 2015, mainly in Shanghai and China, which may further lead to rise in vacancy rates and marginal decline in rentals.

The retail space in Shanghai is currently witnessing an oversupplied market. Our local sources report that the local government has realised this over-supply problem and is taking steps to normalise the deliveries of future projects. Over the course of 2015 there has been a trend of fast fashion brands entering the market. The majority of demand for fashion brands originates from the younger population in the city who have the financial means owing to the rising GDP. Rental cost in the short term is likely to remain stable, or fall marginally; however with the restriction in new projects rental price may rise in the long term.

The industrial sector is one in which is mostly like to be a hotspot for investment. This can be evidenced from the significant increases in rental rates in Shanghai, Wuhan and Shenzhen. The surge in e-commerce has entered China, which has led to an increase in industrial space demand. This will translate into e-commerce companies requiring large warehouses to store the goods that are imported. Marginal increases in demand in Shanghai and Wuhan, coupled with balanced supply is forecasted to bring a slight increase in rental rates by the end of 2015 and in 2016.

China's property investment markets seems to be unaffected by the economic slowdown that the country is experiencing. Investors are looking at the opportunities that the market is presenting and the net yields that can be realised. Property development is being restricted in the country due to the already present oversupply nature of the market; however, new projects are still due to be completed over the coming years in the office sector. Property management is seeing a more favourable investment outlook due to the aforementioned development restriction which seeks to redress the supply and demand balance.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economy
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Office - China - 2015
15
Table: Office Rental Rates
18
Table: China Yield Rates
19
Retail - China - 2015
20
Table: Retail Rental Rates
24
Table: Retail Yields
25
Industrial - China -2015
26
Table: Industrial Rental Rates
29
Table: Industrial Yields
30
Residential/Non Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
31
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (China 2013-2018)
31
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (China 2019-2024)
31
Table: Key Projects: Construction & Social Infrastructure
37
Macroeconomic Forecasts
46
Economic Analysis
46
Table: Economic Activity (China 2010-2019)
49
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
50
China - Risk/Reward Index
50
Table: China Real Estate Risk Reward Index
50
Rewards
50
Risks
51
Market Overview
52
Competitive Landscape
54
Property Developers
54
Property Managers
54
Demographic Forecast
57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
58
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
58
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
60
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
64
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators
65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The China Real Estate Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's China Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our company profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Industry Forecasts Outlook

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry.

Indicators Include:

  • Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (USD per square metre and local currency per square metre).
  • Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (‘000); real growth (%).
  • economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Real Estate Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.