China Real Estate Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 75 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
China Real Estate Report

BMI View:   Although we see Chinese economic growth slowing in the medium term, we are optimistic for the commercial property sector as a whole, as the maturing of the Chinese economy means that opportunities for new, premium developments remain plentiful. Reflecting this view, there is significant international interest in investing in Chinese commercial property.

We forecast a slowdown in Chinese economic growth, despite government stimulus measures, from 6.7% in 2015 and to under 6% by the end of our forecast period, in 2018. The government is treading a fine line between continuing with policies to stimulate investment with badly needed market reforms. The market is also being hit by a fall in residential real estate prices, with many predicting that the Chinese property bubble will burst. We do see prices continuing to fall, although in our view this will be more a correction than a crash, but it will undoubtedly have an impact on sentiment in the economy as a whole. However, in general we are optimistic regarding the commercial real estate sector, as demand remains strong and opportunities are plentiful.

Demand in the office sector is set to remain strong, driven particularly by the premium property segment and services-related industries such as finance and IT, with interest coming both from local and international firms. Overall the supply/demand dynamic will remain balanced as a result of a pipeline of new projects opening, particularly of grade A space.

We see significant opportunities arising in the retail real estate sub-sector. As China's economy moves towards domestic consumption, we believe that significant opportunities will arise in retail, especially towards the premium end of the market in the mass grocery retail and clothing sectors in particular. If the economic slowdown has a more marked impact on household spending than we expect the sector could suffer, but in general we are optimistic, and see household spending rising significantly...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Office
15
Table: Forecast Rental Costs, 2015-2016 (USD/sq m/month)
16
Table: Forecast Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
16
Retail
17
Table: Forecast Rental Costs, 2015-2016 (USD/sq m/month)
18
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
18
Industrial
19
Table: Forecast Rental Costs, 2015-2016 (USD/sq m/month)
19
Table: Forecast Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
20
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
21
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2012-2017)
21
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2018-2023)
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Stimulus Effects Increasingly Short-Lived
34
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018)
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: Asia - Real Estate Risk/Reward Index
39
China - Risk/Reward Index
40
Market Overview
42
Shanghai
43
Beijing
43
Wuhan
44
Shenzhen
44
Office
44
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014
47
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114
47
Retail
47
Table: Historical Rental Costs, 2012-2014 (USD/sq m/month)
50
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 (%)
50
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114
51
Industrial
51
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2013-2014 (USD/sq m/month)
53
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 (%)
54
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Office
57
Retail
57
Industrial
58
Company Profile
59
China Merchants Property Development
59
Gemdale Corporation
61
Poly Real Estate Group
63
Shanghai Industrial Development
65
Demographic Forecast
67
Demographic Outlook
67
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
68
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
69
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
70
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The China Real Estate Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's China Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our company profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Industry Forecasts Outlook

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry.

Indicators Include:

  • Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (USD per square metre and local currency per square metre).
  • Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (‘000); real growth (%).
  • economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Real Estate Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%