China Telecommunications Report

Published 17 August 2015

  • 73 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
China Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Despite its size and ability to rapidly integrate new technology and solutions, the Chinese telecoms market's potential is undermined by the state's reluctance to relinquish control. Government directives concerning the accelerated development of the national broadband network, its licensing of an unsustainable number of MVNOs and influence over pricing potentially leave the industry unable to respond to negative changes in the macroeconomic arena.

Key Data

  • Mobile subscription growth has turned volatile, owing to a number of factors including inactive SIM disconnections, subscriber transfers to 3G/4G services, customers migrating to MVNOs and the slowing consumer spending. Growth will remain positive, reaching 1.417bn subscriptions at the end of 2019.

  • The fixed-line market is declining faster than seen in previous years, as mobile services offer affordable alternatives. We forecast the market to decrease to 220mn lines by 2019 with penetration at 15.4%.

  • Fixed broadband - led by FTTH deployment - still has strong growth momentum and our forecasts expect 358mn connections in 2019.

Key Trends And Developments

China's mobile network operators spent the first six months of 2015 focused on developing their new 4G networks and the services running over them. The companies claim to be at a critical stage of transformation, with capital expenditures running high, alongside costly customer acquisition and retention programmes. Meanwhile, third party over-the-top (OTT) services continue to erode income from core voice and messaging services and ARPUs have trended downwards.

The launch of low-cost services by MVNOs is also considered to be dragging down revenues and profits, although the MVNO market is still at a very early stage of development. The creation of a shared telecoms towers company will help lower build-out costs for the new networks and enable China Unicom and China Telecom reach out into rural areas.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Mobile SWOT
8
Wireline SWOT
10
Political
12
Economy
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Mobile
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2012-2019)
16
Wireline
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2013-2019)
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Industry Risk Reward Index
22
Table: Asia-Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q315
26
Market Overview
28
Mobile
28
Table: China's Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2014
29
Key Developments
29
Market Growth
30
Market Shares
31
Usage
32
Table: China's Operator ARPUs, 2012 And 2013 Average (CNY)
33
MVNOs
33
Networks
34
Mobile Content
37
Sub-national Mobile Markets
38
Table: Selected Sub-National Mobile Markets In China (March 2014)
38
Mobile Operator Data
39
Table: China's Mobile Market Overview
39
Table: China Mobile
39
Table: China Unicom
41
Table: China Telecom
43
Asia Mobile Content
44
Wireline
48
Key Developments
48
Fixed Access Lines
48
Broadband
51
Broadband Newcomers To Struggle
53
Fibre
56
Industry Trends And Developments
58
Regulatory Development
62
Table: China Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
63
Key Developments
64
Competitive Landscape
68
Table: China Telecoms Market Key Players
68
Table: Selected China Telecoms Operator Revenue, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
68
Company Profile
69
China Telecom
69
China Mobile
75
China Unicom
82
Regional Overview
88
Table: Nokia Networks - Selected Asian Contracts/Deals, 2014-15
91
Demographic Forecast
92
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
93
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
93
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
94
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
94
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
95
Glossary
97
Table: Glossary Of Terms
97
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Sources
101
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
101
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
102
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
103

The China Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of China's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's China Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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