China Tourism Report

Published 25 August 2015

  • 64 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
China Tourism Report

BMI View : I nbound and outbound travel to and from China are expected to see significant growth over our forecast period to 2019, with a combination of factors such as expanded travel connections, increases in private financial consumption and a relaxation of stringent visa requirements supporting growth of the tourism industry. We therefore forecast healthy growth across all key market indicators, including tourism related expenditure and hotel industry value.

China's tourism market, inbound and outbound, is one of the most dynamic on the global stage. The country offers a diverse range of tourism attractions from beach holidays to winter sports to cultural and historical excursions, ensuring it maintains a broad appeal to domestic and international travellers. As one of the largest tourism markets in the world, China is attracting considerable interest from private developers and the government is increasingly open to foreign investment in the sector, particularly investment, which expands the reach of tourism to less developed rural areas.

Growth in the inbound travel market is expected to be relatively slow in 2015, with arrivals increasing by 3% to a total of 27.1mn. Slightly more positive growth of 5.8% is expected in the much larger outbound travel market, which is expected to reach 111.3mn tourist departures in 2015. 2016 is expected to see slightly stronger growth rates as economic growth in key markets, such as South Korea, gather pace and as various destinations introduce flight connections with China. Although growth rates are slower than in preceding years, the overall tourism market remains large and even the small increase in arrivals and departures will lead to growth in tourism related expenditure and hotel and restaurant industry value.

Over the medium term we expect to see continued growth in tourism arrivals to and departures from China. This growth is supported by the government's substantial investment in transport infrastructure,...

BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism (China 2012-2019)
Table: China Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2012-2019 ('000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism (China 2012-2019)
Table: China Outbound Tourism Top 10 Destinations By Departures, 2012-2019 ('000)
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (China 2012-2019)
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (China 2012-2019)
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (China 2012-2019)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (China 2012-2019)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotel Groups
International Hotel Groups
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Tourism Market - Key Themes
Global Assumptions
Global Macro Outlook
Table: Global Forecasts, 2014-2019
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The China Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
  • Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
  • Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
  • Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total

BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.

Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Competitive Landscape

This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.

The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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