BMI View: China's tourism industry is growing rapidly and we are seeing major investment in travel and accommodation infrastructure from both domestic and international developers who are keen to take advantage of growth potential, improving the accessibility of the market and expanding the range of hotel options on offer . Much of the potential growth will be based upon China's large domestic market as the international inbound tourism market has an increasingly mixed outlook: while s ome source markets will see g rowth over the medium term, rising economic uncertainty in European source markets and escalating regional territorial disputes could dampen arrivals. The huge size of the domestic market does somewhat offset this risk and overall China's tourism industry will remain a popular investment destination.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Total arrivals, '000||26,290.30||26,360.80||25,985.40||25,578.60||25,146.29||24,776.67||24,493.49||24,273.85|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||-3.3||0.3||-1.4||-1.6||-1.7||-1.5||-1.1||-0.9|
|International tourism receipts, CNYbn||346.78||369.65||387.82||422.89||459.04||487.93||509.37||533.08|
|International tourism receipts, CNYbn, % y-o-y||0.1||6.6||4.9||9.0||8.6||6.3||4.4||4.7|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||56.40||59.99||61.71||63.62||66.05||68.72||71.74||75.08|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||2.7||6.4||2.9||3.1||3.8||4.1||4.4||4.7|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, CNYbn||1,022.83||1,211.88||1,305.36||1,401.28||1,509.69||1,630.86||1,758.77||1,892.96|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, CNYbn, % y-o-y||-2.3||18.5||7.7||7.4||7.7||8.0||7.8||7.6|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn||166.4||196.7||207.7||210.8||217.2||229.7||247.7||266.6|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y||0.3||18.2||5.6||1.5||3.0||5.7||7.8||7.6|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Declines in key international source markets, including a potential downturn in many European markets from the UK's EU referendum results, will impact upon China's inbound travel market over the medium term. We have revised our forecasts this quarter to show a slow decline in arrivals to 24.3mn in 2020, though we note visitors from some key markets, such as South Korea, will continue to grow.
China's range of attractions continues to expand. In June 2016 the gates were opened to the country's first Disneyland at Shanghai, built at an estimated cost of USD5.5bn. Disney is reportedly considering building a second park in China, in the central area of the western region. Competing with Disneyland is the 200 acre Nanchang Wanda Park, which opened in May 2016.
As well as planned investments in new airport infrastructure, China continues to broaden the reach of air travel with a number of new flight routes announced including those of China Eastern Airlines which launched three new routes to European destinations in June 2016 and Air China which has expanded its range of flights to North America.
The China Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.