BMI View: China is home to one of the largest tourism markets in the world. A growing middle class and expanding range of international transport connections have facilitated the development of a huge outbound travel market while China National Tourism Administration estimates domestic tourism accounts for some USD620bn of tourism revenue. We are forecasting healthy growth in the tourism industry throughout our forecast period to 2020, though we do note that regional political tensions and concerns regarding a slowdown in the Chinese economy could impact upon growth potential.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, CNYbn||1,148.74||1,256.42||1,353.16||1,452.89||1,572.95||1,709.48||1,858.95||2,019.88|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, CNYbn, % y-o-y||9.8||9.4||7.7||7.4||8.3||8.7||8.7||8.7|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn||186.8||203.9||212.2||217.7||229.6||247.8||269.4||292.7|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y||12.6||9.1||4.0||2.6||5.5||7.9||8.7||8.7|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||53.52||55.01||53.08||55.73||59.86||64.99||70.52||76.27|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||-2.6||2.8||-3.5||5.0||7.4||8.6||8.5||8.2|
|International tourism receipts, CNYbn||329.06||338.95||338.55||372.01||410.07||448.40||486.59||526.28|
|International tourism receipts, CNYbn, % y-o-y||-5.0||3.0||-0.1||9.9||10.2||9.3||8.5||8.2|
|Total arrivals, '000||26,290.30||26,838.00||26,461.08||27,713.44||29,370.57||31,334.92||33,412.40||35,627.61|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||-3.3||2.1||-1.4||4.7||6.0||6.7||6.6||6.6|
Key Updates And Forecasts
A further slump in the Chinese stock market in January 2016 is cause for concern, as ongoing market fluctuations serve to undermine consumer and investor confidence, which could lead to a delay in developments in the tourism industry. We do note, however, that outbound tourism bookings are maintaining strong growth.
Cruise tourism is proving increasingly popular, with one cruise company estimating that by 2020 around 4.5mn Chinese passengers will go on cruise trips, with this figure rising further to 17.5mn in 2030. Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co Ltd recently announced plans to build the first luxury cruise ship in China for delivery in 2020 and in October 2015 a USD3.88bn deal was agreed between China State Shipbuilding Corp, China Investment Corp and Carnival Corporation to set up a new cruise holiday joint venture based in Hong Kong.
Work is underway at the new Beijing Airport which, when complete, will become the world's largest. The airport will commence operations in 2019 with capacity for 45mn passengers, while subsequent works will increase capacity to 72mn passengers in 2025 and 100mn passengers by 2040. The scale of these works reflects the scope of the Chinese outbound travel market and its importance to the global tourism industry.
Official statistics regarding the size of the outbound travel market have varied in 2015 as the government implemented new definitions for measurement of tourism departures. We put the outbound travel market at 110mn in 2015, increasing to 114mn in 2016. The inbound travel market is smaller but still significant, with arrivals expected to increase by 4.7% to reach 27.7mn in 2016.
The China Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.