China Tourism Report

Published 11 February 2015

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China Tourism Report

BMI View : China's tourism market is exceptionally strong, benefiting from one of the largest potential outbound travel sectors in the world. Both inbound arrivals and outbound departures are expected to increase steadily throughout our forecast period to 2019 , and the country continues to attract a range of foreign investors keen to take advantage of the high growth potential in the tourism industry. As a result, we expect to see healthy growth across all of our key market indicators including industry value and tourism related expenditure.

An ongoing process of global marketing campaigns alongside an increase in regional and global travel connections and gradual visa relaxation is boosting China's inbound travel market. In 2015 we expect China to welcome around 29.6mn visitors, attracted by China's 47 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, including the renowned Forbidden City in Beijing and the Great Wall as well as a range of nature reserves, cosmopolitan cities and beach destinations. Although the pace of annual arrivals growth has slowed since China hosted the 2008 Olympic and Paralympics Games, China still presents a range of opportunities for expansion particularly in the hotel sector, and we expect to see steady growth in arrivals moving forward.

As well as a healthy inbound tourism market, China also presents investors with an immense potential outbound tourism market. Domestic economic growth and an increasingly affluent middle class have led to sharp increases in outbound travel and we expect this trend to continue, growing from a high base of 105.1mn in 2015. There is also a strong tradition of internal travel within China, leading to a range of opportunities for domestic hotel and tour operators.

Overall China is well placed to keep up with the expected increases in demand. The country's transport network is extensive, and the government continues to invest in expanding road, rail and air travel connections as well as attracting extensive...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Inbound Tourism
15
Table: Inbound Tourism (China 2011-2018)
16
Table: China Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
17
Outbound Tourism
18
Table: Outbound Tourism (China 2011-2018)
18
Table: China Outbound Tourism Top 10 Destinations By Departures, 2011-2018 ('000)
20
Travel
20
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (China 2011-2018)
21
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (China 2011-2018)
22
Hotels
23
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (China 2011-2018)
23
Table: Hotel Accommodation (China 2011-2018)
25
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Industry Risk/Reward Index
27
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
27
Table: Asia Tourism Risk/Reward Index
28
Security Risk/Reward Index
28
Market Overview
29
Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups Present In China
33
Competitive Landscape
37
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Holdings
37
Dalian Wanda Group
37
Home Inns Group
38
Plateno Hotels Group
38
HK CTS Hotels Co
38
Green Tree Inn Hotel Management Group
38
Huazhu Hotels Group
39
Vienna Hotels Group
39
Global Industry Overview
40
Global Assumptions
45
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
45
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
46
Developed States
47
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
48
Emerging Markets
49
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
50
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
51
Demographic Forecast
52
Demographic Outlook
52
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
53
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
54
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
55
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
55
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
59

The China Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
  • Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
  • Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
  • Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total

BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.

Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Competitive Landscape

This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.

Sources
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc