BMI View: The outlook for China's tourism industry is very positive. As well as a huge domestic travel market, China is also attracting growing volumes of international visitors and extensive government investment in transport infrastructure means tourism is reaching the further reaches of the country, as well as established travel hubs. While there are some potential downside risks to our current forecasts, namely a sharper economic decline in the domestic economy along with regional political tensions, we continue to expect steady increases in tourism arrivals and tourism related expenditure between 2016 and 2020.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Total arrivals, '000||26,290.30||26,360.80||25,985.40||27,183.74||28,884.25||30,026.24||30,996.03||31,997.15|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||-3.3||0.3||-1.4||4.6||6.3||4.0||3.2||3.2|
|International tourism receipts, CNYbn||346.78||341.85||336.54||381.67||433.79||463.46||486.73||509.49|
|International tourism receipts, CNYbn, % y-o-y||0.1||-1.4||-1.6||13.4||13.7||6.8||5.0||4.7|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||56.40||55.48||53.55||56.15||60.46||63.93||67.13||70.28|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||2.7||-1.6||-3.5||4.9||7.7||5.7||5.0||4.7|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, CNYbn||1,148.74||1,256.05||1,359.92||1,466.73||1,588.46||1,723.35||1,865.80||2,015.26|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, CNYbn, % y-o-y||9.8||9.3||8.3||7.9||8.3||8.5||8.3||8.0|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn||186.8||203.9||216.4||215.8||221.4||237.7||257.4||278.0|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y||12.6||9.1||6.2||-0.3||2.6||7.4||8.3||8.0|
Key Updates And Forecasts
China continues to attract major investment into the hotel sector, both by expanding domestic hotel groups and international hotel operators which are developing popular Western brands and new market focused brands in the country. Spanish hotel company NH Hotel Group is one of the latest to enter the market, setting up new company Beijing NH Grand China Hotel Management in partnership with HNA Group with plans to open 120 to 150 hotels in China by 2020.
The number of international flight connections to China is expanding, making the country more accessible to the global travel market. Delta Air Lines announced in March 2016 it was applying for approval from the US and Chinese governments to launch a daily non-stop flight between Beijing and Los Angeles in late 2016, following the launch of a flight between Los Angeles and Shanghai in 2015. Meanwhile Air China is awaiting approval for a new flight connection between Shanghai and Mineta San Jose International Airport.
Developments such as these will support the growing volumes of international visitors travelling to China. We expect to see 27.2mn international tourism arrivals to China in 2016, increasing to just under 32mn in 2020. Upside risks include further relaxation of visa requirements and expansion of international travel connections.
The China Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.