Colombia Autos Report

Published 17 November 2014

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Colombia Autos Report

BMI forecasts vehicle sales in Colombia to increase 6% in 2014 on the back of steady improvements in the economy and low base effects from declining sales in 2013. We expect this positive momentum to continue into 2015, predicting another year of 6% growth. In terms of Colombia's vehicle production, we forecast growth of 4.5% and 4.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

In April 2014, the Colombian government announced plans to cut tariffs on imported autos components in a bid to make domestically-produced cars competitive with imported vehicles. The domestic autos industry is relatively nascent, relying chiefly on imported components and CKD assembly, with little high value-added manufacturing taking place in the country. BMI believes that, while the reduced tariffs may help reduce costs somewhat, a number of structural inefficiencies remain in the market, hindering automakers. These will therefore be unlikely to compete with imported vehicles for the time being.

A number of international auto manufacturers currently produce vehicles in Colombia. General Motors (GM), based in Bogotá, has an annual capacity of about 100,000 units and assembles some GM Korea vehicles from complete knock-down (CKD) kits. Renault, based in Medellín, with an annual capacity of 80,000, assembles CKD kits bought from Turkey, France, Spain and Brazil. Mazda Motor, also based in Bogotá, with a capacity of 15,000 units annually, builds up the 2, 3 and BT50 pickup trucks. German automaker Daimler's subsidiary Daimler Colombia operates a CKD assembly facility in Bogotá, producing the Mercedes-Benz Atego 1016 and Thomas Built EF 1723 bus chassis. Further, GM is currently building a stamping plant in Bogotá to make and export the body sections of the Aveo Sonic.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Colombia Autos Industry SWOT
6
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
8
Global Overview
9
Global Autos Update: Moderation Will Be Overarching Theme
9
PASSENGER CAR SALES, UNITS, 2012
9
Regional Overview
14
Bullish On Mexico
14
Comparative Weakness In The Productive Capacity Of Mexico's Regional Competitors
14
The Continued Recovery Of The US Vehicle Market
16
Positive Developments In The Domestic Supply Chain
17
A Number Of Trade Agreements And Quotas Exist Amongst Mexico's Large Neighbours
17
The Strength Of The Peso May Dampen Export Growth
18
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas
23
Industry Forecast Scenario
24
Sales
24
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
24
Production
26
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Production, 2010-2017
26
Trade
29
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
31
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity, 2008-2016
33
Competitive Landscape
34
Market Overview
34
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
34
Passenger Cars
34
Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Cars (H112)
35
Commercial Vehicles
35
Alternative Fuels
36
Company Monitor
38
Company Profiles
40
Colmotores (GM)
40
Sofasa
42
Demographic Outlook
44
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
45
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
46
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
47
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
47
BMI Forecast Modelling
48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
48
Sources
49

The Colombia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Colombia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Colombia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc