Colombia Autos Report

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Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotive industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Autos Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Colombia Autos Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: A combination of a weakening peso and the likelihood of further interest rate rises in H116 both pose significant challenges to Colombia's new vehicle sales market in 2016. We are targeting a 3% increase in sales, with commercial vehicles set to outperform passenger cars.

Key Views

  • Vehicle sales have fallen sharply over 2015, against the backdrop of a slowdown caused by a drop in the global oil price.

  • In this weak environment, heavy trucks have proved the outperformers, falling by only 1.3%, compared to a 10.5% fall across the market as a whole.

  • We expect the outperformance by commercial vehicles over passenger cars to continue over 2016-2017, although passenger cars will continue to represent the lion's share of all vehicles sold in Colombia.

  • Colombia is becoming increasingly attractive as a location for automakers, with Chinese carmaker Beiqi Foton Motor and Indian motorcycle maker Hero MotoCorp both opening new plants over 2015.

  • This follows Daimler opening a second bus manufacturing facility in Funza in June 2015 and General Motors pledging USD100mn over four years in investment to its GM Colmotores production subsidiary in November 2015.

  • Over the medium term, a lasting peace deal between the Colombian government and the country's various left-wing insurgent groups should begin to offer strong tailwinds to economic growth, and by extension auto sales, toward the end of the decade.

  • GM subsidiary Chevrolet remains the top-seller in Colombia, accounting for some 25% of the market.

  • Other leading players in the local market include Renault, Kia, Nissan and Hyundai.

Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
(2013-2019)
f = BMI forecast. Source: ANDI, BMI
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Industry Forecast
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2012-2018)
11
Sales
11
Production
12
Alternative Fuels
14
Passenger Vehicles
15
Sales
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2012-2018)
15
Production
16
Commercial Vehicles
16
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2012-2018)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Colombia 2011-2018)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Americas - Risk/Reward Index
26
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Company Profile
30
Company Monitor
30
Regional Overview
34
Industry Trend Analysis
34
Table: Latin America Production Investment Jun-Sep 2014
34
Global Industry Overview
39
Table: The Internet Of Cars
39
Demographic Forecast
41
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
42
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
42
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
43
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
43
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
44
Methodology
46
Industry Forecasts
46
Sector-Specific Methodology
47
Sources
47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
48
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
49

The Colombia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Colombia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Colombia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.