BMI View: T alks between the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government continue on. However , with little real progress made on this front, along with the scandal of the FARC capturing and subsequently releasing a military General, these are unlikely to be resolved in the near future. BMI expects that the defence budget and the subsequent increase in GDP will be used mostly to improve/maintain the Colombian government's military and security forces rather than for new procurements .
As one of the highest military spenders in the Latin American region, BMI expects Columbia to spend USD13.9bn in defence spending for 2015. We forecast that this will steadily increase over the forecast period and beyond. However with peace talks continuing with the FARC, there is a slight chance that should the war end that there may be a stunt in the growth of the country's expenditure. For the remainder of the forecast period (2015-2019) we expect Colombia to spend an average of USD17.3bn annually on defence, with the defence budget reaching USD21.5bn by 2019.
The incumbent president of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos was re-elected in June 2014. Santos will serve a four-year mandate following his 51% majority vote win over his rival Oscar Ivan Zuluaga. Following the victory, peace negotiations with the FARC guerrilla group in Cuba are expected to continue. Although suspended for a short while they are set to continue and help re-establish the peace process. This has not, however, begun to ebb the tide of violence even though it has been promised by both sides. Shortly before the presidential election, Santos revealed that the government has also begun negotiations with the ELN insurgent organisation.
In May 2014 Santos announced that the peace talks with FARC had made significant progress saying that they had got 'the farthest we have ever come in trying to end the war'. FARC and government negotiators have reached agreement on questions of land reform and FARC's participation in the country's political process. This has been tainted by the suspension of talks by the Colombian government over the kidnapping of an army general and two soldiers by the FARC in November 2014. It has been stated by the leader of the FARC that this suspension has destroyed their confidence in the success of the peace talks and that it will take months if not years to redevelop the position they were once in.
Although no new procurement news has come forth at the time of writing the Colombian Ministry of Defence ordered four INKAS Huron wheeled armoured personnel carriers. These vehicles will be supplied to the Colombian national police and will be employed on convoy protection duties. One month earlier in April 2014, the Colombian Army took delivery of eleven GDLS-C LAV-III armoured personnel carriers. The vehicles will be used to form the mobile core of a new mechanised infantry unit.
Key BMI Forecasts:
Over 2015, defence expenditure will reach USD15.0bn (an 6.9% change on 2014 levels).
Defence imports will reach USD149.6mn of which USD95.5mn will be from arms and ammunition.
Defence exports will reach USD25.0mn of which USD15.8mn will be from arms and ammunition.
The Colombia Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Colombia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Colombian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Colombian defence and security market.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.
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