Colombia Freight Transport Report

Published 19 November 2014

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Colombia Freight Transport Report

Growth across the Colombian freight mix is set to remain relatively strong in 2015. This trend follows the news that Colombia's real GDP growth is poised for a robust expansion in the coming quarters, though cooling slightly from the 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth recorded in H1 2014. However, while Colombia will continue to outpace much of the rest of Latin America in the coming quarters, this will be in the context of modestly slowing real GDP growth.

This year we expect the port of Cartagena to see more muted y-o-y growth compared to recent years (between 2010 and 2012 inclusive, growth came in at double figures), but it will still outperform domestic rival the port of Buenaventura in terms of annual gains (4.50% compared to 3.31%, respectively). Rail freight will also see healthy growth of 7.00%, ahead of the road and air freight modes (5.23% and 5.00% respectively).

Headline Industry Data

  • The port of Cartagena will see total tonnage volume increase by 4.50% to 21.63mn tonnes in 2015.

  • Total tonnage handled at the Pacific port of Buenaventura will be up by a more restrained 3.31% to 9.72mn tonnes.

  • Air freight tonnage handled will grow by 5.00% in 2015.

  • Road freight tonnage handled will increase by 5.23% in 2015.

  • Rail freight tonnage handled will rise by 7.00% in 2015.

Key Trends And Developments

Infrastructure Must Improve To Aid Freight Growth:  Insufficient infrastructure network in Colombia is proving to be a key stumbling block to growth, according to a Standard and Poor's report in 2014. The report explained: 'Considering that Colombia's economy has the potential to be the third largest in the region - after Brazil's and Mexico's - the improvement of the transport network is crucial in boosting the country's competitiveness and maintaining its economic growth in the medium and long-term.'

Government Extends Port Deal Until 2017:   The government of Colombia has decided to extend the Tumaco port concession contract, which was...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Table 1: Air Freight, 2012-19
13
Table: Table 2: Maritime Freight, 2012-19
14
Table: TABLE 3: Road Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Table 4: Rail Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Table 5: Inland Waterway Freight, 2012-19
16
Table: TABLE 6: Trade Overview, 2012-19
16
Table: TABLE 7: Key Trade Indicators, 2012-19
17
Table: TABLE 8: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2012, USDmn
18
Table: TABLE 9: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2012, USDmn
18
Market Overview
20
Table: Top Five Colombian Infra Projects By Value
23
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Company Profile
33
Cerrej-n (Logistics)
33
Avianca (Cargo)
37
Political Outlook
41
Domestic Politics
41
Long-Term Political Outlook
43
Table: TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
47
Macroeconomic Forecasts
49
Economic Analysis
49
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Colombia 2011-2018)
55
Demographic Forecast
57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
58
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
58
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
60
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Sources
64

The Colombia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Colombia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc