BMI View: The creation of a new private equity fund to allow pension funds to invest in infrastructure further diversifies Colombia's financing sources for projects, reducing the risks associated with the financing stage in the project cycle and improving the overall risk profile of the country. Furthermore, the new investment vehicle supports our positive forecasts for Colombia's construction industry in 2016.
Key Trends And Developments
In the new low oil price environment, our Country Risk team forecasts GDP to grow by 3.4% in 2016 after an average of 4.8% between 2010 and 2014. In turn, we forecast construction industry value to grow by 7.6% in real terms in 2016.
A new private equity fund that enables pension funds to invest in infrastructure has been created. Diversifying the sources of funding for infrastructure in Colombia will help reduce the cost of debt for projects as well as improving the overall risk profile of the country.
The lower oil price environment has prompted the Colombian government to revise its budget estimates significantly as oil revenues account for about one fifth of total government inflows. In this context, encouraging private investment - through vehicles such as the above mentioned fund - will be critical to the implementation of the government's ambitious infrastructure plans.
Despite the headwinds highlighted above, the national road programme 4G continues to make progress with the third wave of public-private partnership projects being awarded. This positive trend in the transport infrastructure sector has been accompanied but increasing investment in the ports subsector.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BanRe, DANE, BMI|
|Construction industry value, COPbn||70,931.00||80,086.87||89,720.72||98,946.12||108,347.03||118,594.04||129,453.01|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||9.86||8.01||7.63||6.53||5.75||5.96||5.91|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||9.4||9.8||10.2||10.5||10.7||10.9||11.1|
Due to the country's strong growth prospects and improving business environment, Colombia has kept its top place in our Latin America regional table.
With regards to Country Rewards, where Colombia scores the highest at 69.9 out of 100, we highlight the labour market for infrastructure for being one of the strongest in the region.
Colombia achieves a high score for the level of competitiveness in the market and the transparency of the tendering process.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Colombia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Colombia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.