BMI View: T he government stimulus plan in Colombia called Pipe 2.0 presents an upside risk to our construction industry forecasts, particularly for the road subsector and the residential/non-residential building sectors. However, given the budget cuts in light of weak oil prices and reduced government revenue, we are sceptical over the government's capacity to fulfil this investment plan .
Key Trends And Developments
Should public spending from Pipe 2.0 materialise, it is transport infrastructure and housing projects which will be some of the main beneficiaries of this COP16.8tn (USD6.5bn) plan.
With continued strong backing from the Colombian government for the sector, we maintain our outlook of a healthy annual average real construction growth of 6.3% between 2015 and 2020.
Lower, but still strong economic growth - with real GDP growth of 3.1% forecast for 2015 - coupled with the multiple free trade agreements are creating significant demand for new capacity and better quality infrastructure. Improved access to ports and adequate highways will be essential if the country is to meet the expected increase in exports.
In this context, Colombia's project pipeline is largely concentrated in the transport sector. Roads and bridges infrastructure industry value is forecast to account for the largest single proportion of transport infrastructure value in 2015 - over 70% - and is expected to register annual average real growth of 9.9% between 2015-2020.
With regards to the housing sector, a number of government policies - including an increase in the number of social housing units and subsidies to the interest rate for mortgages - will support growth in the residential segment. This positive outlook is further reinforced by a continuation of healthy demand and credit growth, in addition to an upward trajectory in foreign direct investment.
New rules regulating tax changes, force majeure, land expropriation and environmental permits will...
The Colombia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Colombia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.